Keeper league. 12 teams. 5 keepers with a luxury tax for a 6th (7 keepers at season's end now). Scoring includes for hitters: R, H, 1b, 2b, 3b, HR, RBI, BB, SB, K, FPCT, AVG, OPS pitchers: IP, W, L, CG, SHO, SV's, H, HR's, BB's, K's , Holds, ERA, WHIP It is a head to head league. 6 teams make the playoffs with 2 byes C- Brian McCann 1B- Albert Pujols 2B- Ian Kinsler 3B- Evan Longoria SS- Felipe Lopez IF- Pablo Sandoval LF- Jason Bay CF- B.J. Upton RF- Kendry Morales OF- Elijah Dukes Util- David Ortiz Util- Hank Blalock BN- Nolan Reimold BN- Josh Hamilton
SP- Chad Billingsley SP- Josh Johnson SP- Matt Cain RP- Matt Capps RP- Heath Bell P- Fernando Rodney P- Jason Motte P- Jose Arredondo P- Joel Zumaya BN- Phil Hughes BN- Barry Zito BN- Luke Hochevar DL- John Lackey DL- Rich Hill
I'm looking to consolodate a little bit on my roster as I have some guy nearing returns from the DL (Hamilton who is activated already on my team, Lackey and Rich Hill) and have a few two for one and three for two offers out. I think some of them have a chance at being done, however looking at this two ways, assuming I do another deal to consolodate and also assuming I'm unable to do another deal to consolodate, is this a deal I should send out? I've looked long and hard at the numbers (the deeper numbers like LD rate, FB and GB tendencies, BABIP etc.) and I'm a bit torn.
I don't think Big Papi is this bad, but I think it's wishful thinking of a fantasy owner to expect anything more then about 25 HR's at this point and a .275 BA. However, if he posts those numbers, he should still be able to drive in 100 and score 90 ish runs, he still walks, so his OPS will likely still be solid, and I think that's about the ceiling for Tulo. At the same time, I could easily see Papi falling well short of that line having watched a number of his AB's, he is behind everything, and not putting solid wood on ball, and I'm afraid if he posts another 1-2 weeks of trash production, he will have 0 trade value.
My other concern is that I think Felipe Lopez is capable of putting up a line of 100-15-70 .300/.830 (OPS) with decent BB:K numbers, and if that's the case, that's a pretty solid SS. His BABIP is quite high right now, and likely unsustainable, but he's also always had a BABIP around .330 range, and if he's able to maintain that, he's almost a shoe in for a .300 season. I'm not sure what to make of him on the basepaths (3-4 this year, 2 in one game though), but I think 15-20 SB's might be a reasonable projection. The one glaring stat that bothers me is the insane number of worm burners Felipe Lopez is hitting (he's hitting 52.7% GB) which means he will not come close to 15 HR's if he's pounding everything into the ground, and I question if he'll be able to maintain a high BA as the season wears on and he wears out if he's having to leg out singles all the time.
The key to doing this deal for me is what Tulo does. His BABIP is super low right now, and I think is do for some correction. I love that he's drawing more walks this season, and I think he has a great doubles stroke, but enough power to muscle out 20-25 HR's. Given his age, and position, he could factor in as a potential keeper (my 7th keeper) though that would take a heck of a season given that at this point in time Pujols/Longoria/Kinsler look like shoe ins, Bay is raking and should sew up a spot, McCann will likely be kept, Hamilton is off to a slow start, but should get it going in short order, and I still have BJ Upton/Billingsley/Josh Johnson as well. Any insight on whether I should make this offer would be greatly appreciated, and a bit of rationale and your thinking would be great too, thanks in advance, leave me some links!
I feel like since you have Pujols already, you'll be set for power along with Hamilton. When Hamilton gets back, send Morales down to the utility spot, and insert Tulo to SS. Even though he hasn't been having a very good year too, he's bound to rebound because he plays in Coors, and he's in a very good hitting lineup.
I say take this. Before the draft, you would have been getting ripped. But given how Papi's been struggling, Tulo is more valuable to your team. Felipe Lopez shouldn't be a starting SS on a fantasy team.
I'm down on Papi, and I was before his horrendous start.
Like many imports, his actual age is questionable, but his weight and knees are not. I think his name value greatly exceeds his actual value at this point.
I'd have Tulo (UTIL slot) and wouldn't trade him for Papi. I can't even think of what I would trade for Papi, to be honest, I think he's done.
I'd do it, you've hit the nail on the head upgrading your SS. Concern being if Troy will ever retrun to form... I think he will, and yes papi is about done.
I think it's a good trade for you. Big Papi doesn't look good. I think his knees are shot. It's worth the gamble on Tulo upside, bottom line you aren't giving away the farm. You have power without the potential comeback of Papi.
In a keeper league, I'd definitely do this. Papi is not what he use to be and Tulo is up and coming young guy. He already seems to be turning it around after his slow start.
Do the trade if this is more about consolidating your lineup and getting value out of Ortiz since Troy will bring more power #s than speed #s compared to Lopez, and like others have said, you're set on power #s as is.
As far as your delima, yes I would trade papi while I still could, and Tulo makes for a great keeper. Papi has been on a steady decline for the past three years, and this year is proving to be no exception. As far as Felipe, I agree with the simple fact that he should not be your starting short stop. Take this trade and run with it.
If you haven't puled the trigger yet, be careful. Apparently Tulo's quadracept injury, the same one that decimated his 2008 season, has been reaggravated. Tulo downplayed the injury after the game, but you never know.
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