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Wandy Rod

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Re: Wandy Rod

Postby Carnac » Thu Jun 18, 2009 10:58 pm

OK, Wild Bill. Fair enough. Take just the last 3 years.

06 April (2.53, 1.13), May (5.29, 1.74), June (6.42, 1.69), July (9.28, 2.16), Aug. (8.10, 1.60), Sept. (7.36, 1.77)

07 April (4.50, 1.19), May (4.54, 1.37), June (4.66, 1.28), July (3.45, 1.15), Aug (5.13, 1.46), Sept. (5.24, 1.43)

08 April (2.31, 1.11), May (5.79, 2.14), June (2.30, 1.02), July (5.45, 1.61), Aug (4.22, 1.41), Sept. (1.38, 1.08)

Stats in parentheses are ERA and WHIP for that month.

Just taking the last 3 years as you suggest (and I think is perfectly fair), let's look at the stats.

In 2006 he was great in April and very poor the rest of the year.

In 2007 his best month was July followed by April with the rest of the months pretty poor.

In 2008 his best month with at least 5 starts was equally good in April and June. Bad in May, July and August and in Sept (with only 3 starts) was very good.

I said he usually regresses each year after April with a couple of exceptions. I stand by my statement. He is showing the same regression this year. Don't get me wrong. Wandy has all the talent in the world. Maybe he tires some in the summer months, I don't know. Has he progressed? Yes. Is he showing the some regression this year? Yes. Can he turn it around? Yes Will he? News at 11.

You made some good points. I am not a Wandy believer, yet. Maybe next year I will be chomping at the bit to draft him. He is one of the pitchers typically picked up and dropped 3 or 4 times during the year. Showing his inconsistancy so far in his career.

And the guy dropping Wandy for Kaz? You sure like to live dangerously.
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Re: Wandy Rod

Postby wildbill » Fri Jun 19, 2009 12:08 am

Carnac, I don't think including 2006 is fair as I previously said the first 2 years of his career, which includes 2006 are indicative of what he's capable of now, but it seems including that year is the only way to make your point. His first 2 seasons, 2005 and 2006 are very similar so exclude them both, I don't think you'd find too many experts that would support you using either season to determine what he can do now.

08 April (2.31, 1.11), May (5.79, 2.14), June (2.30, 1.02), July (5.45, 1.61), Aug (4.22, 1.41), Sept. (1.38, 1.08)

Now if you look at just the last 2 season's (2007 and 2008) game logs you'll notice something very interesting and it actually continues this year. AS everyone knows he's signficantly better at home then on the road. In 2008 april, june and september he had more home then road starts. august and july were even splits, may was 1 road start. Hmm, the months generally follow the home/road splits patterns.

07 April (4.50, 1.19), May (4.54, 1.37), June (4.66, 1.28), July (3.45, 1.15), Aug (5.13, 1.46), Sept. (5.24, 1.43)

So now in 2007 April was evenly split. may, july and august were more home starts, but he had some fairly bad road starts in may and july, while august appears to be an anomaly outside the norm. June and September were mostly road starts. Pretty similar to 2007 again generally following home/road splits.

What does all this add up to? The month doesn't mean much. You just didn't dig deep enough. In general he does better in months where he has more home then road starts and worse in ones what he has more road then home starts. At least in 2007 and 2008 that seems to hold true with the exception of 1 month. 2009 hasn't quite followed that path, but he has as usual been better at home then on the road. My point is, as I said, the month doesn't freally seem to matter, its the home vs road splits that matter far more.

As parting note, i'm fairly tired so feel free to check this out yourself, but I think Ive got it pegged correctly.
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Re: Wandy Rod

Postby SpecialFNK » Fri Jun 19, 2009 10:22 am

without going through each specific start over the last few years is there a site that says what his home/away stats were for each month through the entire season?
if he was great at home early in the season and just good/OK at home in the 2nd half then id be more concerned, but if he continues to be great at home through the entire season im happy/content and would not drop/trade him as thats all i am going to expect from him.
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Re: Wandy Rod

Postby bologna_sandwich » Fri Jun 19, 2009 12:06 pm

SpecialFNK wrote:without going through each specific start over the last few years is there a site that says what his home/away stats were for each month through the entire season?
if he was great at home early in the season and just good/OK at home in the 2nd half then id be more concerned, but if he continues to be great at home through the entire season im happy/content and would not drop/trade him as thats all i am going to expect from him.



^this is my point exactly!!
I dont have time for this kind of stuff.
rollin' the dice w/ kasmir.
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Re: Wandy Rod

Postby wildbill » Fri Jun 19, 2009 4:06 pm

SpecialFNK wrote:without going through each specific start over the last few years is there a site that says what his home/away stats were for each month through the entire season?
if he was great at home early in the season and just good/OK at home in the 2nd half then id be more concerned, but if he continues to be great at home through the entire season im happy/content and would not drop/trade him as thats all i am going to expect from him.

Doesn't take more then a few minutes to glance over the game logs, but took longer to write this up (note this is for just home games):

2008:
Sep: 2 ER, 12 IP
Aug: 5 ER, 15 IP
Jul: 12 ER, 16.1 IP (was actually better on the road)
Jun: 6 ER, 19.2 IP
May: (no home starts)
Apr: 2 ER, 18.1 IP

2007:
Sep: 5 ER, 3IP (only 1 start so very small, meaningless sample size)
Aug: 13 ER, 25.1 IP (2 really good, 2 poor starts)
Jul: 1 ER, 23 IP
Jun: 1 ER, 7.2 IP (again only 1 start, small sample size)
May: 7 ER, 23 IP
Apr: 4 ER, 13 IP

So in 2008 he was really good at home in every month, with a 3.00 ERA or less, except July. In 2007 he was good at home in april, may, june and july. July was his best month in 2007. August was bad and September was bad, but only 1 start in september, so statistically it was an insufficient sample size to make a decent judgment.

If we throw out his 0 and 1 start months then he only had 2 bad home months between 2007 and 2008, July 2008 and August 2007. His September and August in 2008 combined for 7 ER in 27 IP or a 2.33 ERA. July and August in 2007 combined for 14 ER in 48.1 IP or a 2.61 ERA. So for the most part he's pretty good at home most months, even later in the year, well after April.

Again this just shows that looking at just his monthly splits without digging deeper into his game log and looking at home/road splits gives you somewhat misleading impressions about his monthly performances. Simply put if you bench him on the road and start him at home, odds are you'll be making the right call most months. These home/road splits are something that was well known already. This year he was bucking that trend and performing well on the road too, until his most recent 4 game stretch where both road starts were bad and 1 home start was bad.
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Re: Wandy Rod

Postby Carnac » Fri Jun 19, 2009 8:11 pm

In H2H using him only once every couple weeks is taking up a roster spot with not enough to show for it. I'll pass on Wandy. But, your point is well taken Wild Bill.
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Re: Wandy Rod

Postby superslugger616 » Fri Jun 19, 2009 9:34 pm

Carnac wrote:In H2H using him only once every couple weeks is taking up a roster spot with not enough to show for it. I'll pass on Wandy. But, your point is well taken Wild Bill.

I have Wandy and Chris Young, and using them for home starts is a good idea. Splits are ridic
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