Carnac wrote:Wandy's career stats for April= 2.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP. After April he is in the mid 4 to 5 in ERA and somewhere around 1.4-1.5 WHIP. These are his career stats. He is a fast starter and regresses almost every year, with a couple exceptions. Pointed this out on another post about a month ago.
Last year 3.48 ERA, 1.28 WHIP pre-break, 3.61 /1.35 post-break. Not that different. In fact if you look last year he alternated good and bad months the whole season. And if you look overall he got progressively better for the whole season each of the last 3 years in a lot of categories, suggesting his career averages really aren't a good judge of what he'd do this year since they displayed a steady progression toward getting better. When you take an average of data steadily trending in one direction you don't really get an accurate assessment of what to expect now. He had ERA's under 4 the last 2 years. Do you think the fact he had ERAs over 5 his first 2 years are useful in projecting expectations at this point? I sure don't, which is why I think in this case career averages are a poor measure to go by. Now if you want to argue he could end up somewhere in the range of the average of the last 2 seasons, I'm not going to argue about that, because that could turn out to be right.