wildbill wrote:In 2007 Abreu had 2 HR total in April and May, 4 total in April - June. Then he had 11 the next 2 months. Over his career April is the month with his lowest HR total (April thru Sept). Past evidence suggests some power will come, 15-20 HR predicted preseason is still attainable.
As for SB, I think 35+ is entirely possible and wouldn't be shocked if he reached 40. His last few seasons have been with the Yankees and I've been told that while they steal bases they haven't been a big running team. The Angels is a team that likes to run a lot, so it makes sense Abreu would see an increase in his SB totals. He only needs 23 SB over the rest of the season, around 5/6ths of the season to reach 35. The Abreu who played for the Yankees could come close to that.
You lobe patterns yet seem to ignore obvious one's like his age, and the fact that as the season progresses basically every single base stealer steals less. Also his Homers where definitely helped by Yankee Stadium which favors him and The Angels Field which is ridiculously hard for him to hit a Homerun off of.[/quote
That's not always true, check out Beltran's career numbers. Anyway that argument is really irrelevant here. Look he has 12 SB in 29 games a rate of 0.41 SB per game. That's a pace of well over 66 per 162 games. Therefore when I said 35+ is entirely possible and 40 isn't out of the question I was accounting for a considerable amount of dropoff in pace. Even if his pace is cut in half and he only plays 140 games he'd still reach 35 SB. We're talking simple math. He's had so many early SB he can reach 35 with a considerable amount of dropoff. And note he's played 158 and 156 games the last 2 seasons, which would push him closer to 40 SB. I didn't say he would definitely reach those numbers, but he has a good shot. If you'd done the math before trashing me you'd realize that.
As for the home runs, it's pretty easy for you to make blank statements while providing no evidence. I've seen stats on what Abreu has done before, and haven't found any data to backup or dispute your claims. That's especially true when it comes to ballparks. How about you provide some evididence, or are we just supposed to accept your right even though you've presented no evidence? You're pretty good at trashing me while providing no evidence to support your claims. Like I said most experts were predicting 15-20 HR for him preseason, usually in the middle, so I'm going by what they said and that Abreu's power has been slow to develop early in the season in the past.
As for age, I think it's pretty clear age does not affect every player the same. Some flair out and are out of baseball by their early 30s, some are still producing at a good clip at 40 or more. Others are in the middle. While it's obvious Abreu has declined some, you're implying he's going to fall off the face of the earth this year. Again where's you're evidence. If you're going to trash me at least be man enough to present some solid evidence to back up your claims. I don't know if I'm right, but you've presented nothing to show I'm wrong. Show me the evidence, that's all I'm asking.
You bother checking out his career numbers at the angels ball park..........He's batting almost i Think it was 60 points lower at home this year. In this stadium he's only ever had 1 HR and has a BA of .240 in his career
californiasunshine wrote: You lobe patterns yet seem to ignore obvious one's like his age, and the fact that as the season progresses basically every single base stealer steals less. Also his Homers where definitely helped by Yankee Stadium which favors him and The Angels Field which is ridiculously hard for him to hit a Homerun off of.[/quote
That's not always true, check out Beltran's career numbers. Anyway that argument is really irrelevant here. Look he has 12 SB in 29 games a rate of 0.41 SB per game. That's a pace of well over 66 per 162 games. Therefore when I said 35+ is entirely possible and 40 isn't out of the question I was accounting for a considerable amount of dropoff in pace. Even if his pace is cut in half and he only plays 140 games he'd still reach 35 SB. We're talking simple math. He's had so many early SB he can reach 35 with a considerable amount of dropoff. And note he's played 158 and 156 games the last 2 seasons, which would push him closer to 40 SB. I didn't say he would definitely reach those numbers, but he has a good shot. If you'd done the math before trashing me you'd realize that.
As for the home runs, it's pretty easy for you to make blank statements while providing no evidence. I've seen stats on what Abreu has done before, and haven't found any data to backup or dispute your claims. That's especially true when it comes to ballparks. How about you provide some evididence, or are we just supposed to accept your right even though you've presented no evidence? You're pretty good at trashing me while providing no evidence to support your claims. Like I said most experts were predicting 15-20 HR for him preseason, usually in the middle, so I'm going by what they said and that Abreu's power has been slow to develop early in the season in the past.
As for age, I think it's pretty clear age does not affect every player the same. Some flair out and are out of baseball by their early 30s, some are still producing at a good clip at 40 or more. Others are in the middle. While it's obvious Abreu has declined some, you're implying he's going to fall off the face of the earth this year. Again where's you're evidence. If you're going to trash me at least be man enough to present some solid evidence to back up your claims. I don't know if I'm right, but you've presented nothing to show I'm wrong. Show me the evidence, that's all I'm asking.
You bother checking out his career numbers at the angels ball park..........He's batting almost i Think it was 60 points lower at home this year. In this stadium he's only ever had 1 HR and has a BA of .240 in his career
That is what has me concerned as well. Unfortunately, our league uses OPS and not average, so he has been on my bench essentially the whole year. And with my Vlad, Posada and Escobar returning from the DL (eventually), he will leave me with a very difficult decision as to what to do with him!
C M. Montero 1B AGonz 2B Uggla 3B Zimmermann SS Jeter OF J Upton, McCutcheon, Choo Util Kendrys Morales BN Pena DL Gardner SP Gallardo, Bumgarner, Latos, Zimmermann, Luebke, Jaime Garcia, Hughes, Burnett RP League, Marshall, Betancourt
Concur. Especially this last week his average is getting ugly to go along with the HR drought, and only 1 SB. Definitely losing what fantasy value he had, quickly
"Don't worry, the fans don't start booing until July."
californiasunshine wrote:You bother checking out his career numbers at the angels ball park..........He's batting almost i Think it was 60 points lower at home this year. In this stadium he's only ever had 1 HR and has a BA of .240 in his career
Did it ever occur to you that for most of his starts in that park as a visitor that the Angels have had good pitching staffs? That was almost certainly a much bigger factor then the park itself. That's the fallacy a lot of people fall into. How a player did as a visitor to a ballpark really isn't a good indicator how they will do as a member of the home team in the park. For example, do you think that just because someone goes into WAS and mashes the ball against the Nats AAA pitching staff it means they'd keep mashing there if they were traded to WAS and faced the Dodgers pitching staff when they visited? My point is opposing pitching is a much bigger factor then the park itself. I'm not saying the park doesn't have some effect, obviously it does, but it's not the only factor (or even the biggest factor) you seem to think it is.
That said Abreu really has sucked for well over a week now no matter where he's played. Unfortunately for me almost all my other hitters went into a slump at the same time.
californiasunshine wrote:You bother checking out his career numbers at the angels ball park..........He's batting almost i Think it was 60 points lower at home this year. In this stadium he's only ever had 1 HR and has a BA of .240 in his career
Did it ever occur to you that for most of his starts in that park as a visitor that the Angels have had good pitching staffs? That was almost certainly a much bigger factor then the park itself. That's the fallacy a lot of people fall into. How a player did as a visitor to a ballpark really isn't a good indicator how they will do as a member of the home team in the park. For example, do you think that just because someone goes into WAS and mashes the ball against the Nats AAA pitching staff it means they'd keep mashing there if they were traded to WAS and faced the Dodgers pitching staff when they visited? My point is opposing pitching is a much bigger factor then the park itself. I'm not saying the park doesn't have some effect, obviously it does, but it's not the only factor (or even the biggest factor) you seem to think it is.
That said Abreu really has sucked for well over a week now no matter where he's played. Unfortunately for me almost all my other hitters went into a slump at the same time.
As you've said yourself he's not a visitor this year, and this year he hasn't been facing the angels, yet he still doesn't have one HR.........check and mate
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by californiasunshine » Tue May 12, 2009 10:07 pm 
