In 2007 Abreu had 2 HR total in April and May, 4 total in April - June. Then he had 11 the next 2 months. Over his career April is the month with his lowest HR total (April thru Sept). Past evidence suggests some power will come, 15-20 HR predicted preseason is still attainable.
As for SB, I think 35+ is entirely possible and wouldn't be shocked if he reached 40. His last few seasons have been with the Yankees and I've been told that while they steal bases they haven't been a big running team. The Angels is a team that likes to run a lot, so it makes sense Abreu would see an increase in his SB totals. He only needs 23 SB over the rest of the season, around 5/6ths of the season to reach 35. The Abreu who played for the Yankees could come close to that.
wildbill wrote:In 2007 Abreu had 2 HR total in April and May, 4 total in April - June. Then he had 11 the next 2 months. Over his career April is the month with his lowest HR total (April thru Sept). Past evidence suggests some power will come, 15-20 HR predicted preseason is still attainable.
As for SB, I think 35+ is entirely possible and wouldn't be shocked if he reached 40. His last few seasons have been with the Yankees and I've been told that while they steal bases they haven't been a big running team. The Angels is a team that likes to run a lot, so it makes sense Abreu would see an increase in his SB totals. He only needs 23 SB over the rest of the season, around 5/6ths of the season to reach 35. The Abreu who played for the Yankees could come close to that.
You lobe patterns yet seem to ignore obvious one's like his age, and the fact that as the season progresses basically every single base stealer steals less. Also his Homers where definitely helped by Yankee Stadium which favors him and The Angels Field which is ridiculously hard for him to hit a Homerun off of.
wildbill wrote:In 2007 Abreu had 2 HR total in April and May, 4 total in April - June. Then he had 11 the next 2 months. Over his career April is the month with his lowest HR total (April thru Sept). Past evidence suggests some power will come, 15-20 HR predicted preseason is still attainable.
As for SB, I think 35+ is entirely possible and wouldn't be shocked if he reached 40. His last few seasons have been with the Yankees and I've been told that while they steal bases they haven't been a big running team. The Angels is a team that likes to run a lot, so it makes sense Abreu would see an increase in his SB totals. He only needs 23 SB over the rest of the season, around 5/6ths of the season to reach 35. The Abreu who played for the Yankees could come close to that.
You lobe patterns yet seem to ignore obvious one's like his age, and the fact that as the season progresses basically every single base stealer steals less. Also his Homers where definitely helped by Yankee Stadium which favors him and The Angels Field which is ridiculously hard for him to hit a Homerun off of.
That's not always true, check out Beltran's career numbers. Anyway that argument is really irrelevant here. Look he has 12 SB in 29 games a rate of 0.41 SB per game. That's a pace of well over 66 per 162 games. Therefore when I said 35+ is entirely possible and 40 isn't out of the question I was accounting for a considerable amount of dropoff in pace. Even if his pace is cut in half and he only plays 140 games he'd still reach 35 SB. We're talking simple math. He's had so many early SB he can reach 35 with a considerable amount of dropoff. And note he's played 158 and 156 games the last 2 seasons, which would push him closer to 40 SB. I didn't say he would definitely reach those numbers, but he has a good shot. If you'd done the math before trashing me you'd realize that.
As for the home runs, it's pretty easy for you to make blank statements while providing no evidence. I've seen stats on what Abreu has done before, and haven't found any data to backup or dispute your claims. That's especially true when it comes to ballparks. How about you provide some evididence, or are we just supposed to accept your right even though you've presented no evidence? You're pretty good at trashing me while providing no evidence to support your claims. Like I said most experts were predicting 15-20 HR for him preseason, usually in the middle, so I'm going by what they said and that Abreu's power has been slow to develop early in the season in the past.
As for age, I think it's pretty clear age does not affect every player the same. Some flair out and are out of baseball by their early 30s, some are still producing at a good clip at 40 or more. Others are in the middle. While it's obvious Abreu has declined some, you're implying he's going to fall off the face of the earth this year. Again where's you're evidence. If you're going to trash me at least be man enough to present some solid evidence to back up your claims. I don't know if I'm right, but you've presented nothing to show I'm wrong. Show me the evidence, that's all I'm asking.
wildbill wrote:In 2007 Abreu had 2 HR total in April and May, 4 total in April - June. Then he had 11 the next 2 months. Over his career April is the month with his lowest HR total (April thru Sept). Past evidence suggests some power will come, 15-20 HR predicted preseason is still attainable.
As for SB, I think 35+ is entirely possible and wouldn't be shocked if he reached 40. His last few seasons have been with the Yankees and I've been told that while they steal bases they haven't been a big running team. The Angels is a team that likes to run a lot, so it makes sense Abreu would see an increase in his SB totals. He only needs 23 SB over the rest of the season, around 5/6ths of the season to reach 35. The Abreu who played for the Yankees could come close to that.
You lobe patterns yet seem to ignore obvious one's like his age, and the fact that as the season progresses basically every single base stealer steals less. Also his Homers where definitely helped by Yankee Stadium which favors him and The Angels Field which is ridiculously hard for him to hit a Homerun off of.
That's not always true, check out Beltran's career numbers. Anyway that argument is really irrelevant here. Look he has 12 SB in 29 games a rate of 0.41 SB per game. That's a pace of well over 66 per 162 games. Therefore when I said 35+ is entirely possible and 40 isn't out of the question I was accounting for a considerable amount of dropoff in pace. Even if his pace is cut in half and he only plays 140 games he'd still reach 35 SB. We're talking simple math. He's had so many early SB he can reach 35 with a considerable amount of dropoff. And note he's played 158 and 156 games the last 2 seasons, which would push him closer to 40 SB. I didn't say he would definitely reach those numbers, but he has a good shot. If you'd done the math before trashing me you'd realize that.
As for the home runs, it's pretty easy for you to make blank statements while providing no evidence. I've seen stats on what Abreu has done before, and haven't found any data to backup or dispute your claims. That's especially true when it comes to ballparks. How about you provide some evididence, or are we just supposed to accept your right even though you've presented no evidence? You're pretty good at trashing me while providing no evidence to support your claims. Like I said most experts were predicting 15-20 HR for him preseason, usually in the middle, so I'm going by what they said and that Abreu's power has been slow to develop early in the season in the past.
As for age, I think it's pretty clear age does not affect every player the same. Some flair out and are out of baseball by their early 30s, some are still producing at a good clip at 40 or more. Others are in the middle. While it's obvious Abreu has declined some, you're implying he's going to fall off the face of the earth this year. Again where's you're evidence. If you're going to trash me at least be man enough to present some solid evidence to back up your claims. I don't know if I'm right, but you've presented nothing to show I'm wrong. Show me the evidence, that's all I'm asking.
If I recall correctly, Abreu is batting second? Abreu batted third on the Yankees, when he reached base, Alex Rodriguez would be up. Why risk having Abreu getting thrown out when the second best hitter in base ball is up, coming off a MVP 54 homer and 156 RBI season. Alex slugged a absurd .645 that season. Why have Abreu risk getting caught stealing going for a 40 SB season when chances are Alex was more than capable of bringing him in.
It was more beneficial to have him not steal, then to steal. Giambi also slugged .503 that year as well. This year he is batting in front of Tori Hunter (who is hot to start off) who is no where near the SLUG % Alex and Jason owned. Besides Vlad, who else is capable of slugging on the Angels? Certainly not Torii with his 466 slugging last year. Thats why he is stealing more bases, to provide more RISP opportunities to a power depleted team.
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
I said Abreu was done last year....I was wrong....
I actually drafted him this year.....I'm saying he's done again
The Steals are nice....but, the power is awful.....I'll take under 12 with straight odds...if his final numbers are 290/12/85/80 R/30 SB......then he's going to be a pretty AVERAGE fantasy play....
Why don't they just get a house that's already painted?
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by wildbill » Sun May 10, 2009 2:42 am 
