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Chris Ray back as the O's closer?

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Chris Ray back as the O's closer?

Postby TheWinPlan » Mon May 04, 2009 10:24 am

As per Rotoworld:

Orioles manager Dave Trembley said Sunday that it'll be a "day by day" decision as to who gets the ball in a save situation.
Sherrill blew his second save of the season on Saturday and has former closer Chris Ray breathing down his neck. "I think No. 1, we have to do what's best to get us on the winning track, and No. 2, I have to take a look at the situation and do what I feel is in the best interest of the team for," Trembley said.
Source: Baltimore Sun
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Re: Chris Ray back as the O's closer?

Postby harold_bush » Mon May 04, 2009 11:27 am

I saw that, but I'm thinking that is a typo and they meant to saY Baez is breathing down his neck. Chris Ray has been awful this year, far worse than even Sherrill. Ray has a 7.56 ERA and a horrifying 2.16 WHIP. Baez, also w/ closing experience, has a 2.63 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. The only thought on Baez is that he has been tossing multiple/effective innings, and they may not want to use him as a 1 inning close.

Either way, I'm not getting near Ray right now.
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Re: Chris Ray back as the O's closer?

Postby TheWinPlan » Mon May 04, 2009 1:08 pm

I don't think they will use a guy like Baez to close games. Chris Ray was the closer (and one of the best in the AL) before his Tommy John surgery. The closer job belongs to him.

And so far Baez has not been used that much in the late innings.

I think Ray is the obvious choice here.
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Re: Chris Ray back as the O's closer?

Postby 3rice » Mon May 04, 2009 1:42 pm

Ray is struggling b/c of lack of game time. He needs to be out there more then 2 nights a week.
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Re: Chris Ray back as the O's closer?

Postby bjmacdow » Mon May 04, 2009 2:26 pm

3rice wrote:Ray is struggling b/c of lack of game time. He needs to be out there more then 2 nights a week.



As a closer you are not guaranteed playing time. Could be 8-10 games before a save situation comes up.
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Re: Chris Ray back as the O's closer?

Postby TheWinPlan » Mon May 04, 2009 2:32 pm

He was not the closer until now... so they were probably monitoring his innings.

Now that they need to have one guy to step up, they will give him the chance to perform as what he should be: the closer!
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Re: Chris Ray back as the O's closer?

Postby bazzy_51 » Mon May 04, 2009 2:36 pm

TheWinPlan wrote:I don't think they will use a guy like Baez to close games. Chris Ray was the closer (and one of the best in the AL) before his Tommy John surgery. The closer job belongs to him.

And so far Baez has not been used that much in the late innings.

I think Ray is the obvious choice here.


Ok first off don't rule ANYTHING out when it comes to the O's... right now they are going back to a CBC to find the best fit for the job... 1st point i don't believe Sherrill comes out with the job, 2nd point don't believe Ray comes out with the job either, when you look at the situation they have 4 front runners for the job, Sherrill, Ray, Johnson and Baez... I say you can count both Sherrill/Ray out for right now as both Johnson and Baez are pitching far better then that of Sherrill and Ray... If i had to put money on it, it would be put on Baez... How you can say Baez won't be used to close games is coming out of nowhere IMO, and how Ray can be the obvious choice is down right absurd, even if you say Baez is old or Johnson is too young and inexperienced there is no way you can't give one of if not both these guys a shot over both former closers, Rays 7.56 ERA and 2.16 WHIP and Sherrills 5.06 ERA and 1.69 WHIP IMO constitute giving a chance to Baez and Johnson to see what they can do... thats just my $.02 as both Sherrill and Ray have been given shots and haven't come through...
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Re: Chris Ray back as the O's closer?

Postby SAKIC_19 » Mon May 04, 2009 5:25 pm

No offense Bazzy, but when, this year, has Ray been given the chance to close? Prior to the injury he was dominating and did a fine job. Once the rust comes off he'll be fine and is the obvious choice.

He was lights out in spring training (not that that means much) however his numbers are skewed because of the lack of innings and 2 bad outings.

My money is on Ray taking over.
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Re: Chris Ray back as the O's closer?

Postby TornHammy » Mon May 04, 2009 5:45 pm

I think Ray's clearly the guy to own out of the bunch. Granted, he hasn't been that good, but he also has not been nearly as awful as his numbers would indicate. To date, he's basically been the same pitcher that he was pre-injury, only with varying results.

Consider:

The average velocity on his FB, SL and Split Finger are all within 1mph of his 06-07 averages.

His control is only slightly worse: 4.32 BB/9 this year, compared to 3.73 BB/9 in 06-07. But 8.1 frames is too small a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions on his control.

His 4.13 FIP is consistent with his 06-07 seasons of 4.84 and 4.11, respectively.

He's allowing less contact and generating roughly the same amount of line drives, ground balls and fly balls.

So why do his numbers stink? Mainly due a ridiculously high .491 BABIP. (Thank you Fangraphs.)

The O's are smart enough to know that Ray is the best arm in their pen, and I hope they are smart enough to realize that he has basically been the same closer of the future in 2009 that he was in 2007.
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Re: Chris Ray back as the O's closer?

Postby yossarian » Mon May 04, 2009 6:01 pm

Ray has appeared 10 times this season. In 6 of those appearances, he's given up no runs with a walk here and there, never more than 1 walk in any of those appearances. 4 of those games were decided by 2 runs or less.

He was tagged for 2 runs in a 10-5 win and 2 more in his next appearance 3 days later, a 2-11 loss. In his 2 more recent outtings, he gave up 1 run in a 5-7 loss to the Angels (given up in the 7th, when the game was still 5-6), and he gave up 2 runs in a 4-8 loss to Toronto, pitching the last inning of what was at the time a 4-6 game.

What does all this mean? I'm not sure. It seems the Orioles have had no issues bringing him in for games when they've been within 1 or 2 runs, either up or down. For the most part, he's done well in those outtings. 2 of his 4 bad outtings came in blowouts, which is pretty consistent with a lot of RPs, at lease, with just about every RP that's ever been on any of my fantasy rosters.

Regarding his last 2 outtings, he gave up a run in a 1 run game, when his team was down, so I'd consider that a pressure situation with him not coming through. He also gave up 2 runs in what was at the time on a 2 run game where his team was down, again maybe another pressure situation with him not coming through? Is this on the manager's mind when he's trying to figure out whether to go with Ray or Baez or Johnson to close a game?

Of course, the sample size is teeny tiny.
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