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Do any of you use this method of player valuation ....??

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Do any of you use this method of player valuation ....??

Postby SHOCKandAWE » Sat Mar 13, 2004 4:52 pm

I need some help trying to determine the gap for my 5x5 categories due to lost standings from last year. If anyone still has theirs can you please let me know the gap between the winner of the league and the loser of the league in all the cats. For instance how many homers seperated the #1 ranked roto team in that Cat from the last place. I am seeing that an average of 70 or so it the norm but I need to see more before I set up my valuations on the players for my league.

I would be greatlful if you can take the time to do this for me anyone
Last edited by SHOCKandAWE on Sat Mar 13, 2004 9:58 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Postby justinA » Sat Mar 13, 2004 5:10 pm

well in my 14 team league, heres how it hammered out..

HR- 346 to 206, 140 difference
BA- .2891 to .2647, .0244 difference
Runs - 1278 to 972, 306 difference
RBI - 1284 to 972, 312 difference
SB - 227 to 56, 171 difference

ERA - 3.809 to 4.665, .856 difference
K's - 1461 to 929, 532 difference
saves- 104 to 6 :*) (i was the 6), 98 difference
wins - 127 to 87, 40 difference
Whip - 1.249 to 1.408, .159 difference

i think this si what u meant, but i dont know what u are gunna do with it.
The Oreos!
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PERFECT

Postby SHOCKandAWE » Sat Mar 13, 2004 5:35 pm

THIS IS PERFECT. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT I AM LOOKING FOR.

IF YOU PREPARE YOUR DRAFT USING THE VALUATION METHOD BY DETERMINING HOW MANY HOMERUNS IT WILL TAKE TO MOVE UP 1 POINT IN THE HOMERUN CAT. YOu can the translate this over to the hitters projections and determine a rough idea of the players worth.

There is much too this than what I have time for, however I can give you a small part of how it works.

A-Rod for example based on projections of:
47HR 118RB 20SB 0.298 124runs

By dividing the gap of homers by teams you get a unit per point.
for instance in your league it take 10 homers to gain 1 point in the homers cat. So by just having A-rod on your team all year he would give you 4.7 points higher in the homer cat than not having him. Like I said before there are many more factors, however this is a simple way of explaining it to you. Let me break downyour units first.

It takes 10 homers to gain 1 point in the HR cat.
It takes .0017 to increase 1 point in the AVG ct.(harder to predict)
It take 21 Rbi to gain 1 point in your runs cat.
It takes 22 runs to gain 1 point in the rbi cat.
It takes 12 sb to gain 1 point in the sb cat

Now lets see what A-Rod is really worth:

HR is worth 4.7 points
AVG cant be determined because its the team average. Cumulative is tougher to use.
RBI is worth 5.6
Runs is worth 5.6
SB is 1.6

If you add this up then A-ROD is valued at 17.5 roto points in your league. The key is to do this for all your players to get a ranking. Once you get a ranking you can see how a player helps or hurts you team if he is plugged in. They can also have negative points per cat. Take a guy like Pierre who hits no homers. He may have a negative point total. So if you have a spreadsheet you can determine th league average and base it on this.
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oops i forgot

Postby SHOCKandAWE » Sat Mar 13, 2004 5:41 pm

If you league had large gaps between the winner and 2nd place and the last place team with the 2nd last then you can throw out the two end teams and use that as a gap to base off of.
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Postby SHOCKandAWE » Sat Mar 13, 2004 5:57 pm

bump
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Postby EugeneStyles » Sat Mar 13, 2004 6:10 pm

Unfortunately, I don't have my stats from last year, but I'd be interested in seeing your ratings based on this method.
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Postby EugeneStyles » Sat Mar 13, 2004 6:28 pm

justinA wrote:well in my 14 team league, heres how it hammered out..

HR- 346 to 206, 140 difference
BA- .2891 to .2647, .0244 difference
Runs - 1278 to 972, 306 difference
RBI - 1284 to 972, 312 difference
SB - 227 to 56, 171 difference


These numbers seem pretty extreme for a 14-team lead. Are you telling me that the top team in HR's averaged more than 38 HR's for every single hitter? And the top SB team averaged over 25 SB's per player. For runs and RBI's they'd have to have averaged 142.
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Postby mrmarley » Sat Mar 13, 2004 6:39 pm

EugeneStyles wrote:
justinA wrote:well in my 14 team league, heres how it hammered out..

HR- 346 to 206, 140 difference
BA- .2891 to .2647, .0244 difference
Runs - 1278 to 972, 306 difference
RBI - 1284 to 972, 312 difference
SB - 227 to 56, 171 difference


These numbers seem pretty extreme for a 14-team lead. Are you telling me that the top team in HR's averaged more than 38 HR's for every single hitter? And the top SB team averaged over 25 SB's per player. For runs and RBI's they'd have to have averaged 142.


Probably had some extra positions in there...MI, maybe an extra Of'er or two, or extra util positions, I would guess (?)
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Postby tool069c » Sat Mar 13, 2004 6:44 pm

yeah, standard 5x5 roto usualy has 14 hitters and 9 pitchers...
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Postby SHOCKandAWE » Sat Mar 13, 2004 6:45 pm

EugeneStyles:

There are a couple of other steps that take place after you have these figures. These steps then convert your players with a dollar figure. It is amazing to see how everyone is so fooled by the experts when they figure out a $$ in the books. If you want to know more I advise purchasing

http://www.fantasybaseballstrategy.com by henry lee

the ADAPTIVE VALUATION does all of this for you. Its very simple and worth every penny.

Here are my top 5 rankings for each position given my league numbers.

$42 Curt Schilling
$36 Pedro Martinez
$33 Mark Prior
$30 Mike Mussina
$29 Kerry Wood


$42 Eric Gagne
$27 Billy Wagner
$26 Octavio Dotel
$24 Keith Foulke
$20 John Smoltz


$32 Todd Helton
$25 Jason Giambi
$23 Jim Thome
$23 Carlos Delgado
$21 Richie Sexson
$21 Derrek Lee

$33 Alfonso Soriano
$19 Bret Boone
$17 Jeff Kent
$13 Orlando Cabrera
$13 Marcus Giles

$32 Alex Rodriguez
$24 Nomar Garciaparra
$22 Edgar Renteria
$20 Derek Jeter
$19 Miguel Tejada

$21 Eric Chavez
$20 Scott Rolen
$14 Mike Lowell
$14 Morgan Ensberg
$13 Hank Blalock

$14 Javy Lopez
$14 Ivan Rodriguez
$11 Jorge Posada
$12 Mike Piazza
$9 Jason Kendall
*Funny how everone thinks that catchers are worth much more. Is the top catcher worth the same as the 50th best OF??

$36 Albert Pujols
$32 Gary Sheffield
$31 Carlos Beltran
$30 Barry Bonds
$28 Vladimir Guerrero*
*Vlad was ranked lower because I lowered his projections due to concerns with health.
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