Another lame #3 question

[EricF]

In our 11-team league, 7x7 (the normal 5 hitting, plus OBP and TB, and the normal 5 pitching, plus homers allowed and holds), the first two are likely to be A-Rod and Soriano. (It was interesting to see the earlier post, to see everyone say Randy Johnson ahead of Soriano.) In my number 3 pick, it seems to come down to Randy Johnson or Vladimir Guerrero. Which do you think I should take?

[Guest]

i would take randy, thats me though

[bobballoo]

I'd take Guerrero. He's on the way up. Johnson might be magnificient again, but he's gonna be 40 so he might get hurt too. The way Guerrero's BB's went up last year, he could be a 50/50 guy in 2003.

[Amnorix]

In our 11-team league, 7x7 (the normal 5 hitting, plus OBP and TB, and the normal 5 pitching, plus homers allowed and holds), the first two are likely to be A-Rod and Soriano. (It was interesting to see the earlier post, to see everyone say Randy Johnson ahead of Soriano.) In my number 3 pick, it seems to come down to Randy Johnson or Vladimir Guerrero. Which do you think I should take?

Although in a 5x5 there's lots of room for argument, in your case I don't think there is. Take Vladdy, and I'll give you a very good reason why. Your Commish, intentionally or not, has somewhat reduced the importance of starting pitching. The inclusion of the two extra hitting and pitching categories throw the equation into Vlad's favor. Basically, Vlad will help you with BOTH of the two "new" hitting categories, while Unit is definitely not going to get you a single Hold all year. Thus, Vladdy is going to help you in ALL 7 hitting categories in your league, but Unit is only going to help in five of the pitching categories (he won't help with saves either, of course). Thus, Vlad is your man.

Don't take pitching in round 2, either. Zito, Oswalt, etc. will also be making contributions in 5 categories, while a guy like Giles (very high OPS, but pick #19 might be a little high for him) and Beltran will help in all 7, or (perhaps more likely, since you don't need to focus on steals anymore) you can take a high average, big bopper like Manny, Berkman, Kent, Thome or Shawn Green, who can help in at least six.

I'd even stay away from pitching in Round 3. Then in rounds 4/5, when you have picks 41 and 48 overall, look for solid pitching with at least one of those picks. Guys like Morris, Prior, Maddux, Colon, Mussina, Lowe and Wood shoudl be around for one or the other of those picks.

[Guest]

Amnorix,

Thanks for your thoughtful comments. I was thinking this morning after I posted my question last night, that Vlady would help me in 7 categories, while RJ would only help in 5, max. Our format gives even more advantage to hitters that the 5x5 or 4x4 formats.

I had not seriously considered avoiding pitchers altogether in the first 3 rounds. I had Oswalt last year, (our categories were a little different, and he could help me in 6 of them), and I was planning on him again, but you've got me thinking differently. There will be other guys later who would be OK.

[EricF]

Guest is me. I didn't know I wasn't logged in.