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Kevin Millwood off to hawt start, but...........

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Re: Kevin Millwood off to hawt start, but...........

Postby AussieDodger » Sat Apr 18, 2009 11:39 pm

J35J wrote:Its only a matter of time before he starts giving up alot of runs. He didn't look very impressive at all tonight against KC but managed to get out of alot of it, probably mostly thanks to the KC hitters themselves. He really only works with his fastball and curve. His fastball is terribly average in which he tends to keep thigh to waist high most of the time. His curveball is nice but overall I'm going to assume as soon as it starts to warm up more his home games will be frightening.


What effect is the Texas defense and bullpen having on his stats?

The last couple of years he's rocked 35 and 37 hit %s, and 69 and 69 strand %s. Surely moving M.Young to 3B and introducing Andrus can only help him.
Finding a couple more "real" relievers could help too. At least Frank Francisco has his shizz together, and hasn't thrown a chair yet ;-7 .
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Re: Kevin Millwood off to hawt start, but...........

Postby DSheppard » Sat Apr 18, 2009 11:39 pm

J35J wrote:Its only a matter of time before he starts giving up alot of runs. He didn't look very impressive at all tonight against KC but managed to get out of alot of it, probably mostly thanks to the KC hitters themselves. He really only works with his fastball and curve. His fastball is terribly average in which he tends to keep thigh to waist high most of the time. His curveball is nice but overall I'm going to assume as soon as it starts to warm up more his home games will be frightening.


Get out of it? 8 baserunners in 9 innings was not an in and out of danger situation.

Granted no he wasnt that sharp tonight. worst looking of his 3 outings. But hes been good.

Ultimately i do think he will suck though.
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Re: Kevin Millwood off to hawt start, but...........

Postby Steve-o » Sat Apr 18, 2009 11:54 pm

AussieDodger wrote:I read somewhere ages ago that the (Theo GMed) Red Sox did a study where they found 105 was the mark where SP get a lot worse + have a higher risk of injury. Sorry can't remember where.
I thought if that's good enough for Theo, it's good enough for me :-b


I can't find that anywhere, and I have been looking for the last hour or so. Here's the closest thing I found.

"1. As a teenager, a pitcher should not be allowed to throw two-hundred innings seasons or have a BFS over 28.5 in any significant span (150-plus innings)."
2. A teenage pitcher should not start on three days rest..."
3. For ages twenty to twenty-two, they should average no more than 105 pitches per start for the season (105 pitches is the rough equivalent of a 30.0 BFS). A single game ceiling should be set at 130 pitches.
4. For age twenty-three to twenty-four, the restraints can be eased up, but their season average should stay under 110 pitches in most cases. The single game ceiling can be jumped to 140 as long as the pitcher is still strong."


I highlighted where I think you are getting this 105 notion from. This list is from Craig Wright's The Diamond Appraised written over 20 years ago . Quoted here. I had never heard of Batters Faced Per Start (BFS) before doing this research, but it seems pretty interesting and relevant. I'll have to buy the book...

Anyways, like I said before, it appears to me there is not study that shows any need to limit an older pitcher to 105 pitches. Don't buy into the pitch count hype.
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Re: Kevin Millwood off to hawt start, but...........

Postby AussieDodger » Sun Apr 19, 2009 12:04 am

Steve-o wrote:
AussieDodger wrote:I read somewhere ages ago that the (Theo GMed) Red Sox did a study where they found 105 was the mark where SP get a lot worse + have a higher risk of injury. Sorry can't remember where.
I thought if that's good enough for Theo, it's good enough for me :-b


I can't find that anywhere, and I have been looking for the last hour or so. Here's the closest thing I found.

"1. As a teenager, a pitcher should not be allowed to throw two-hundred innings seasons or have a BFS over 28.5 in any significant span (150-plus innings)."
2. A teenage pitcher should not start on three days rest..."
3. For ages twenty to twenty-two, they should average no more than 105 pitches per start for the season (105 pitches is the rough equivalent of a 30.0 BFS). A single game ceiling should be set at 130 pitches.
4. For age twenty-three to twenty-four, the restraints can be eased up, but their season average should stay under 110 pitches in most cases. The single game ceiling can be jumped to 140 as long as the pitcher is still strong."


I highlighted where I think you are getting this 105 notion from. This list is from Craig Wright's The Diamond Appraised written over 20 years ago . Quoted here. I had never heard of Batters Faced Per Start (BFS) before doing this research, but it seems pretty interesting and relevant. I'll have to buy the book...

Anyways, like I said before, it appears to me there is not study that shows any need to limit an older pitcher to 105 pitches. Don't buy into the pitch count hype.


Thanks for posting that, that's really interesting ;-D

It wasn't where I got 105 from though. :-S
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Re: Kevin Millwood off to hawt start, but...........

Postby Ender » Sun Apr 19, 2009 1:00 am

Hitters go deeper into counts now than they ever did before, they require more non fastball/change ups and they require more max effort pitches. If Nolan Ryan pitched today he'd probably rarely go over 120-125 pitches in a game and he was a freak for durability. The game has changed considerably and that is why pitch counts are a bigger issue now, pure and simple. If 'insert great pitcher of old' played today their pitch counts and innings would have gone way down.
Last edited by Ender on Sun Apr 19, 2009 9:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Kevin Millwood off to hawt start, but...........

Postby J35J » Sun Apr 19, 2009 9:48 am

DSheppard wrote:Get out of it? 8 baserunners in 9 innings was not an in and out of danger situation.


I should have clarified a little more. He worked his 89-91mph fastball thigh-waist high most of the night....he should have got shelled doing that but our bats are so hit or miss that he got away with it.
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Re: Kevin Millwood off to hawt start, but...........

Postby CadensDad » Sun Apr 19, 2009 10:11 am

I might be wrong here, but isn't Millwood known to have high pitch counts and pitch more innings than most?
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Re: Kevin Millwood off to hawt start, but...........

Postby Steve-o » Sun Apr 19, 2009 11:10 am

CadensDad wrote:I might be wrong here, but isn't Millwood known to have high pitch counts and pitch more innings than most?


Yup. When I was doing the research on high pitch counts I was reading alot of articles from the late 90s and Millwood was always mentioned as a young guy who had thrown too many innings / pitches.
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Re: Kevin Millwood off to hawt start, but...........

Postby AussieDodger » Thu Apr 23, 2009 11:26 pm

AussieDodger wrote:Why the ____ does he have to pitch consecutive starts of 113, 112 and 111 pitches?

Using a SP as injury prone as Millwood like this is a little stupid (if you use 105+ as the danger zone like I do).

Today he could have been stopped at 100 or less, as the Rangers were behind 2-0. Who gets glory from a complete game loss?
His next start is either @ Bal or @ Tor, I think he could either have a fatigue-inspired meltdown that game, or (hopefully) be pulled after 80-90 pitches.


Wow.
116 pitches today vs Toronto.
He has now gone 113,112,111,116. Again pitching the unnecessary 7th inning when he's behind by 2.
This old-timey thinking is doing my head in.
They obviously don't understand the equation Kevin Millwood + fully fit = results. !+)
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Re: Kevin Millwood off to hawt start, but...........

Postby Ender » Thu Apr 23, 2009 11:47 pm

I wouldn't worry about his pitch counts that much, I'd be more worried that he isn't a very good pitcher and he is pitching in an extreme hitters park with a bad defense behind him.
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