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Draft Values vs. Trade Values

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Re: Draft Values vs. Trade Values

Postby Ender » Wed Apr 15, 2009 12:09 pm

I agree with the Pitching gains value as the season goes on group here. I would never even consider trading a 2nd round guy for Lincecum in April but if he is pitching great in say June then his owner would probably laugh at the offer at that point.
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Re: Draft Values vs. Trade Values

Postby Big League Chew » Wed Apr 15, 2009 12:19 pm

I think that this just goes to show you the way that you should really draft. Guys like Santana shouldn't be drafted in the first or second round no matter what league you are in. You can get a guy just about as good in rounds to follow. I agree that the SP gets more valuable as the season goes on further a big reason for this is that people are worried about hitters being inconsistent as much as they are worried about SP being inconsistent. Santana has pitched 2 great games so far, but in one of the games he got a loss because his team didn't hit. Mid way through the year it becomes obvious as to who has the good run support to back up their pitching. At this point people are willing to lose some of their good hitting for SP. I'm a big fan of drafting lots of good hitting, then getting a lot of "good" pitchers. The funny thing is that guys like Billingsly and Cain could have been drafted in leagues around the 5-7 rounds. Think of all of the hitters that a team could have had if they had passed on guys like Santana, Linc, and Peavy. I'm now climbing off of my soap box and sitting back down with the rest of us who have all made this mistake at some point.
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Re: Draft Values vs. Trade Values

Postby Matthias » Wed Apr 15, 2009 12:40 pm

mak1277 wrote:
Dan Lambskin wrote:i've seen some pretty earth shattering revelations in this thread...the fantasy world may never be the same.

what's next, people start platooning players based on their Home/Away or Lefty/Righty matchups. you could probably get the production of a player drafted quite a few rounds earlier by doing that. someone should start a thread about that

You say that, and I don't disagree, but I still see tons of threads in DTKW forum where people don't understand why trades are rejected because "I drafted so-and-so before he drafted his guy". Plenty of (I guess) more casual players really seem to struggle with the idea that needs become more important than some arbitrary "ranking" when it comes to making trades.

Exactly. I don't think anyone is thinking that they're breaking new and undiscovered ground here, but the question was asked, the question was answered. People weighed in with their thoughts. Just because it's not cutting-edge strategy doesn't mean it doesn't have value to other people.
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Re: Draft Values vs. Trade Values

Postby Dan Lambskin » Wed Apr 15, 2009 12:58 pm

Matthias wrote:
mak1277 wrote:
Dan Lambskin wrote:i've seen some pretty earth shattering revelations in this thread...the fantasy world may never be the same.

what's next, people start platooning players based on their Home/Away or Lefty/Righty matchups. you could probably get the production of a player drafted quite a few rounds earlier by doing that. someone should start a thread about that

You say that, and I don't disagree, but I still see tons of threads in DTKW forum where people don't understand why trades are rejected because "I drafted so-and-so before he drafted his guy". Plenty of (I guess) more casual players really seem to struggle with the idea that needs become more important than some arbitrary "ranking" when it comes to making trades.

Exactly. I don't think anyone is thinking that they're breaking new and undiscovered ground here, but the question was asked, the question was answered. People weighed in with their thoughts. Just because it's not cutting-edge strategy doesn't mean it doesn't have value to other people.


true...i guess i was just in a surly mood. i will probably send this link to the guy who wouldnt include player X in a deal because he was drafted in the same round as player Y
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Re: Draft Values vs. Trade Values

Postby Polar Bear » Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:00 pm

Dan Lambskin wrote:i've seen some pretty earth shattering revelations in this thread...the fantasy world may never be the same.


Glad I could contribute to the progression of fantasy sports. My next 2 topics will be dedicated to the unknown Rays prospect, David Price and why League Veto's should be banned.

Matthias I love your examples, although I really don't know much about bonds.

I should probably point out I am primarily talking about H2H leagues, there is more strategy involved with these leagues on a week to week basis. Roto is a different ballgame and I can see a Johan going for Markakis in that type of league.

I see your point about Johan's production vs. Greinke's production, but unlike football I can overcome that production with sheer volume of pitchers, at least in counting stats

What do you think about this scenario?

A Standard 12 Team H2H league(No streaming). 2 of the 12 teams draft 6 starting pitchers in the first 7 rounds. Their strategy is to dominate the pitching categories and try and steal one or 2 of the offensive categories each week. Their strategy will disrupt the value of pitchers during the draft and possibly cause others to reach for middle-tier pitchers and at the very least cause some very good offensive players to drop. They will have a great pitching staff with a below average offense. Assuming that their pitchers perform as expected and during the season their depth at pitching allows them to try and make some trades for top 20 hitters; How many pitchers can they trade to try and compensate for their lack of production on offense, yet not lose their significant advantage in the pitching categories.

That is where the problem is for me. I don't think they can do it, unless they punt HRs. Maybe I am wrong on that, but I don't believe a pitchers trade value will ever exceed the trade value of an elite offensive player. I believe it rarely exceeds the trade value of a Nick Markakis or Manny Ramirez who were both drafted in the 3rd or 4th respectively.
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Re: Draft Values vs. Trade Values

Postby Matthias » Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:10 pm

Polar Bear wrote:Matthias I love your examples, although I really don't know much about bonds.

Stocks = part ownership in a company. Stock prices go up, stock prices go down... on average they go up but, as we see over the past 12 months, that's not guaranteed.

Bonds = IOU from an entity. The federal government issues them, city governments issue them, and companies issue them. Theoretically speaking, they're a guaranteed return.... you're giving a loan to whoever sells you the bond. But in real terms, some borrowers are more likely to pay you back than others. The US federal government is basically a slam-dunk (if they ever started defaulting the world financial system would collapse), the State of California is probably likely not to default (although more likely than the federal government), and a South American mining company.... who knows. So investors essentially lend money to the federal government at cheaper rates than they would lend it to anyone else. If you're buying a US bond nowadays, you're probably only getting 1-2%, but at least you know it's safe.

/finance lesson

Polar Bear wrote:What do you think about this scenario?

A Standard 12 Team H2H league(No streaming). 2 of the 12 teams draft 6 starting pitchers in the first 7 rounds. Their strategy is to dominate the pitching categories and try and steal one or 2 of the offensive categories each week. Their strategy will disrupt the value of pitchers during the draft and possibly cause others to reach for middle-tier pitchers and at the very least cause some very good offensive players to drop. They will have a great pitching staff with a below average offense. Assuming that their pitchers perform as expected and during the season their depth at pitching allows them to try and make some trades for top 20 hitters; How many pitchers can they trade to try and compensate for their lack of production on offense, yet not lose their significant advantage in the pitching categories.

That is where the problem is for me. I don't think they can do it, unless they punt HRs. Maybe I am wrong on that, but I don't believe a pitchers trade value will ever exceed the trade value of an elite offensive player. I believe it rarely exceeds the trade value of a Nick Markakis or Manny Ramirez who were both drafted in the 3rd or 4th respectively.

I would think, if all of their starting pitchers pan out, they could trade 2 of their SPs, maybe even 3, to different teams and still retain their advantage.
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