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Draft Values vs. Trade Values

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Draft Values vs. Trade Values

Postby Polar Bear » Wed Apr 15, 2009 10:38 am

Anyone ever notice the discrepancy in the value of a player post draft.

For example Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum were taken in the late first or early second round, depending on the size of the league.

Well wait 3 weeks into the season and try trading Tim Lincecum for B.J Upton straight up and I bet that it will rarely happen. Try trading Santana for Markakis and I doubt you will get many takers. Heck, try doing that directly after the draft and it still won't happen.

Relief Pitchers on the other hand are different. A guy like Broxton who was taken around the 9th or 10th round can be traded straight up for guys like Abreu, Dye, Victorino and in non-keeper league possibly McLouth. He can definitely be traded straight up for a guy like Greinke who is going to give you solid stats in 5 categories compared to Broxton's SVs.

Offensively speaking, older players who get off to a slow start, such as Ortiz, drops drastically in value and can be had for guys who went much later in the draft than he did.

Younger players who get off to great starts can be traded for much more than their draft value. This is especially true in keeper/dynasty leagues. The same holds true for pitchers. Guys will sell their tendons to get super hyped prospects like Price and Kershaw, yet are content to let guys like Buerhle sit and rot on the wire, even though he will outperform them in every category except for Ks.

Big Power guys like Adam Dunn have terrible value post-draft, but great value post all-star break. People will pay more for HRs than any other offensive category.

I believe this happens in every league to some degree. The degree varies depending on experience of the players.
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Re: Draft Values vs. Trade Values

Postby markj11 » Wed Apr 15, 2009 10:51 am

Yep, guy in my league says Price is on the block and it's going to take a pretty penny to get him.
Exact quote:
"He's now on the market. No piddling offers, please. The boy will be, well, pricey. "

Not sure what he's looking for since everyone passed on him until the 16th round.
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Re: Draft Values vs. Trade Values

Postby mak1277 » Wed Apr 15, 2009 10:54 am

Lots of factors obviously, but I think this points out an important consideration when you're crafting trades. To me, as soon as the draft is over, draft values really ARE pretty worthless. Once you have a completed set of teams, value is determined based on needs. Trying to trade Johan for Markakis might never happen if the other guy has a good set of starting pitchers and is a little light in the OF. There is much less "context" during the draft. If I have a deep outfield, but I'm relying on Jason Motte as my 2nd closer, I'd be inclined to deal McLouth for Broxton.
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Re: Draft Values vs. Trade Values

Postby Matthias » Wed Apr 15, 2009 10:59 am

To expand a little bit on what mak is saying, you have to consider the individual you're trading with. Personally, if someone tries to trade me a player from approximately the same draft position, my attitude is, "If I wanted Player A instead of Player B, I would have drafted Player A instead of Player B." I didn't like them a week ago, why should I like them better now?

Ironically, I've read the exact opposite experience when it comes to starting pitchers. Quality SPs who can be drafted in the 7th round get traded for quality hitters drafted in the 3rd or so once the season is a little bit in (more than a week, less than 2 months) because it looks like they're on the top end of their performance expectation.
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Re: Draft Values vs. Trade Values

Postby Polar Bear » Wed Apr 15, 2009 11:04 am

Matthias wrote:To expand a little bit on what mak is saying, you have to consider the individual you're trading with. Personally, if someone tries to trade me a player from approximately the same draft position, my attitude is, "If I wanted Player A instead of Player B, I would have drafted Player A instead of Player B." I didn't like them a week ago, why should I like them better now?

Ironically, I've read the exact opposite experience when it comes to starting pitchers. Quality SPs who can be drafted in the 7th round get traded for quality hitters drafted in the 3rd or so once the season is a little bit in (more than a week, less than 2 months) because it looks like they're on the top end of their performance expectation.


Starting pitcher value increase as the season goes along, due to injuries and players realizing their weaknesses. Johan Santana by week 14 could be traded for a Markakis if the team needs SP help. Right after the draft, no way you are getting that deal.

Obviously depth comes into play, although in H2H it is less of an issue since a hot FA pickup can carry you through a week at a certain position.

However you can acquire SP depth later in the draft, which begs the question in a H2H league, why waste a pick on Santana or Lincecum so early in the draft?
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Re: Draft Values vs. Trade Values

Postby Matthias » Wed Apr 15, 2009 11:13 am

Polar Bear wrote:
Matthias wrote:To expand a little bit on what mak is saying, you have to consider the individual you're trading with. Personally, if someone tries to trade me a player from approximately the same draft position, my attitude is, "If I wanted Player A instead of Player B, I would have drafted Player A instead of Player B." I didn't like them a week ago, why should I like them better now?

Ironically, I've read the exact opposite experience when it comes to starting pitchers. Quality SPs who can be drafted in the 7th round get traded for quality hitters drafted in the 3rd or so once the season is a little bit in (more than a week, less than 2 months) because it looks like they're on the top end of their performance expectation.

Starting pitcher value increase as the season goes along, due to injuries and players realizing their weaknesses. Johan Santana by week 14 could be traded for a Markakis if the team needs SP help. Right after the draft, no way you are getting that deal.

Obviously depth comes into play, although in H2H it is less of an issue since a hot FA pickup can carry you through a week at a certain position.

However you can acquire SP depth later in the draft, which begs the question in a H2H league, why waste a pick on Santana or Lincecum so early in the draft?

This is the same issue that comes up in fantasy football and quarterbacks.

Why spend a high draft pick on Peyton Manning when [Player X] was had in [Round X] last year and came within 10% of his production? Why? Because if you're so astute as to be able to sift through projections and playing situations and everything else that you can identify that person before the draft, then no reason. But if you're like the rest of us who believe that Player Z may be good but then hook into Player Y before you realize that Player X was the guy you wanted and maybe he's still available or maybe someone else has scooped him. In the meantime you're spent 1/3 - 1/2 of your season playing with someone who is not performing up to 10% of Peyton's production.

In very simple terms, you're paying (or overpaying in your eyes) for a relatively high confidence that a player will perform in the top of their position. There will be other players who may come close but you're facing the luck of the draw at that point, unless you really know something that other people don't.

Or, to give one last example, why do people settle for the boring 3-5% return that they get off of US government bonds when buying stocks can give you 13% or more return? Well, because you know that you're getting that boring 3-5% return. Even if you buy a "guaranteed" return of 17% bond from a South American mining company, you're still absorbing much more in the way of risk.
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Re: Draft Values vs. Trade Values

Postby Dan Lambskin » Wed Apr 15, 2009 11:39 am

i've seen some pretty earth shattering revelations in this thread...the fantasy world may never be the same.

what's next, people start platooning players based on their Home/Away or Lefty/Righty matchups. you could probably get the production of a player drafted quite a few rounds earlier by doing that. someone should start a thread about that
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Re: Draft Values vs. Trade Values

Postby Matthias » Wed Apr 15, 2009 11:55 am

Dan Lambskin wrote:i've seen some pretty earth shattering revelations in this thread...the fantasy world may never be the same.

what's next, people start platooning players based on their Home/Away or Lefty/Righty matchups. you could probably get the production of a player drafted quite a few rounds earlier by doing that. someone should start a thread about that

It seems that Yoda has a new Padawan. :-B
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Re: Draft Values vs. Trade Values

Postby mak1277 » Wed Apr 15, 2009 12:00 pm

Dan Lambskin wrote:i've seen some pretty earth shattering revelations in this thread...the fantasy world may never be the same.

what's next, people start platooning players based on their Home/Away or Lefty/Righty matchups. you could probably get the production of a player drafted quite a few rounds earlier by doing that. someone should start a thread about that


You say that, and I don't disagree, but I still see tons of threads in DTKW forum where people don't understand why trades are rejected because "I drafted so-and-so before he drafted his guy". Plenty of (I guess) more casual players really seem to struggle with the idea that needs become more important than some arbitrary "ranking" when it comes to making trades.
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Re: Draft Values vs. Trade Values

Postby kab21 » Wed Apr 15, 2009 12:07 pm

Another difference is that my rankings don't necessarily match up with drafted order. There are plenty of occurrences where I'm grabbing players that I think are several rds better than where they were drafted (or players that I felt other owners reached for). This is more likely occurring for controversial players and sleepers like Cruz, Davis, Dukes, Carlos Gomez, Marmol, etc... So when you try to trade for these players they have much different values.

There are also some instances where players get inflated in trade demands because of team needs as mentioned. It's tough for most teams to draft and then trade a 3rd rd pick like Markakis for a significantly different player. Or they will be unwilling to trade their stud catcher despite you offering a higher valued player because there is no replacement catcher for them.

Another thing (slightly related) that I've noticed is that in my 20 team auction is that I spend the whole auction trying to get depth with reasonably priced 25-100 ranked players and then I spend the whole season trying to trade up to top 20 players. I can't understand it other than maybe I THINK that I'm better at finding value than others.
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