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Sabermetric "Buy Low" Candidates?

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Sabermetric "Buy Low" Candidates?

Postby Sekrah » Tue Apr 14, 2009 6:14 am

Anybody know the key statistics to watch for guys who are off to a slow start, but may just be having some bad luck? How do I identify these guys vs players who are really struggling with their swing?

LD%? GB/FB Ratio? BABIP? What are good numbers in these stats.

Anyone got some guys who are getting boned with bad luck right now? I'm looking for buy-low candidates to trade for.
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Re: Sabermetric "Buy Low" Candidates?

Postby Super Manny » Tue Apr 14, 2009 10:34 am

Tim Dierkes puts together a great recurring column on his RotoAuthority blog that highlights statistically lucky/unlucky starting pitchers. It can be a useful tool in helping to gage some guys you might want to sell high or buy low on.

Here's the first installment for 2009:
http://www.rotoauthority.com/2009/04/babip-anyone.html

;-D
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Re: Sabermetric "Buy Low" Candidates?

Postby colt4523 » Tue Apr 14, 2009 11:09 am

Nice ;-D
90% of my posts are from complaining about my team :)
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Re: Sabermetric "Buy Low" Candidates?

Postby kab21 » Tue Apr 14, 2009 12:08 pm

I think if I were to sabermetrically look for buy low candidates I would look at last years rates and who was underperforming them. Pretty much I'm still using my draft rankings because there just isn't enough data out there to make any opinions yet.

right now a high K rate pitcher could have 4 K/9 and 5 BB/9 (due to a rough start) despite him being an 7.5 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 pitcher (based on past results). Any sabermetric buy low argument (based on this years stats) would say stay away despite the fact that his sabr friendly rates will likely end up closer to his past results.
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Re: Sabermetric "Buy Low" Candidates?

Postby Curtis Pride » Tue Apr 14, 2009 1:09 pm

I think a week into the season is too early to look for any buy low or sell high candidates.

I'd wait at least 3 weeks before trying to truly identify "buy low" guys, and really like 30 games is when I start looking at trading.

Sure, you may come across reactionary guys in leagues that just trade and drop people all the time, but in truly competitive leagues with knowledgeable owners, you aren't going to get Lincecum right now for cheap because he had two bad starts.
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Re: Sabermetric "Buy Low" Candidates?

Postby The Artful Dodger » Tue Apr 14, 2009 2:16 pm

It's pretty early to look into sabermetrics. I'll give it 2-3 weeks to see if any trends pop out, with respect to prior seasons, and then gauge how lucky/unlucky certain players are so far into the year.
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