Sabermetric "Buy Low" Candidates?

[Sekrah]

Anybody know the key statistics to watch for guys who are off to a slow start, but may just be having some bad luck? How do I identify these guys vs players who are really struggling with their swing?

LD%? GB/FB Ratio? BABIP? What are good numbers in these stats.

Anyone got some guys who are getting boned with bad luck right now? I'm looking for buy-low candidates to trade for.

[Super Manny]

Tim Dierkes puts together a great recurring column on his RotoAuthority blog that highlights statistically lucky/unlucky starting pitchers. It can be a useful tool in helping to gage some guys you might want to sell high or buy low on.

Here's the first installment for 2009:
http://www.rotoauthority.com/2009/04/babip-anyone.html

[colt4523]

Nice

[kab21]

I think if I were to sabermetrically look for buy low candidates I would look at last years rates and who was underperforming them. Pretty much I'm still using my draft rankings because there just isn't enough data out there to make any opinions yet.

right now a high K rate pitcher could have 4 K/9 and 5 BB/9 (due to a rough start) despite him being an 7.5 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 pitcher (based on past results). Any sabermetric buy low argument (based on this years stats) would say stay away despite the fact that his sabr friendly rates will likely end up closer to his past results.

[Curtis Pride]

I think a week into the season is too early to look for any buy low or sell high candidates.

I'd wait at least 3 weeks before trying to truly identify "buy low" guys, and really like 30 games is when I start looking at trading.

Sure, you may come across reactionary guys in leagues that just trade and drop people all the time, but in truly competitive leagues with knowledgeable owners, you aren't going to get Lincecum right now for cheap because he had two bad starts.

[The Artful Dodger]

It's pretty early to look into sabermetrics. I'll give it 2-3 weeks to see if any trends pop out, with respect to prior seasons, and then gauge how lucky/unlucky certain players are so far into the year.