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How Superstitious Are You with Patterns?

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How Superstitious Are You with Patterns?

Postby CineMamet » Tue Apr 14, 2009 3:09 am

Perhaps superstitious isn't the right word, but some of these are myths, after all and debatable. Do you pay attention to these?

Do you value slightly more players turning 27?
Do you go for starting pitchers in their third full year?
Do you look for players who have off-year, on year, off-year, on year?
How often do you just go with your gut feeling against research, expert advice and sabermetrics?

I admit that I look at players turning 27. I won't necessarily value him higher, but someone who is 26-28 will get a second look from me.

I do like to follow the 3rd SP year rule. Not to a tee, but well, obviously you're going to look at overall base numbers and hope he improves from year 1 to 2 and then to 3.
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Re: How Superstitious Are You with Patterns?

Postby West » Tue Apr 14, 2009 7:58 pm

This year I made a concerted effort to only draft players I felt had the best chance of staying healthy this year. Needless to say, Rich Harden was not on my team. I do like hitters who are in the 26-28 range as well.
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Re: How Superstitious Are You with Patterns?

Postby Neato Torpedo » Tue Apr 14, 2009 8:04 pm

No breakout players aged 29+. Rowand and Byrnes last year, Werth and Youk this year.
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Re: How Superstitious Are You with Patterns?

Postby CineMamet » Wed Apr 15, 2009 12:02 am

Neato Torpedo wrote:No breakout players aged 29+. Rowand and Byrnes last year, Werth and Youk this year.


Interesting tidbit. Two Cardinals guys. Rick Ankiel is 29, turning 30 in July. Ryan Ludwick was 29 turning 30 during last year's breakout (if you call it that) year.
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Re: How Superstitious Are You with Patterns?

Postby AcidRock23 » Wed Apr 15, 2009 8:28 am

ugh, and look at Ludwick and Ankiel now...'in the rotation' in the OF. I knew it would be rough but there were a couple of highly suspicious benchings of Ludwick the first week alone...I have been toying w/ the idea of dealing him but I was high on him when we had our early draft and 'relied' (sic) on JD "Nancy" Drew and Milton Bradley as my high-risk OF backups...eeek... ;-D

I like to start SP when their opponent has gone off the day before, figuring they are less likely to rack up a 8-12 runs two days in a row?
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Re: How Superstitious Are You with Patterns?

Postby Polar Bear » Wed Apr 15, 2009 10:09 am

Superstitions...I don't know if I like that word but here are my tendencies when I draft.

1. I never draft a guy who bats lower than .275. I don't even look at his power numbers.
2. I don't draft any closers in H2H leagues and I vulture saves all year.
3. If any of my relievers become closer I wait until they have 3 or 4 saves and then trade him for a solid hitter or pitcher. Last year I was able to get Matt Kemp (before he was getting PT) and Rich Harden this way.
4. I try to keep my OBP around .350
5. I draft a lot of "post-hype" sleepers in the latter rounds
6. I aim for all of my offensive guys being able to steal at least 10 bases and hit 20 HRs.
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