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Verlander's back

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Re: Verlander's back

Postby outflow » Sat May 09, 2009 2:44 pm

RenPastana wrote:Verlander's got a sell-high sign all over his forehead...There is no way he will keep up at this pace (last 2-3 starts is waht I mean)...if you're a smart owner, throw him out there and see what you can get.

Verlander is at best a: 3.75+ ER, 1.27+ WHIP, 150-170K pitcher...If he pitched in the NL, these numbers would be significantly lower but he does not...

Very good pitcher but definitely does not end the yr in the top 10


150-170K??? That is just flat out nonsense. The only way he ends up in that range is due to an injury. The man already has 56 punchouts. While I agree with your 3.75 to 4.00 ERA assessment, (because of that ugly first start) [mod edit] the strikeouts will not go away. Please, I challenge you to reply your reasoning as to why he won't have more than 200 strikeouts. Him pitching in the AL is not adequate reasoning. From what I hear he is now throwing 4 pitches, trying to develop a changeup.
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Re: Verlander's back

Postby RenPastana » Sat May 09, 2009 2:58 pm

outflow wrote:
RenPastana wrote:Verlander's got a sell-high sign all over his forehead...There is no way he will keep up at this pace (last 2-3 starts is waht I mean)...if you're a smart owner, throw him out there and see what you can get.

Verlander is at best a: 3.75+ ER, 1.27+ WHIP, 150-170K pitcher...If he pitched in the NL, these numbers would be significantly lower but he does not...

Very good pitcher but definitely does not end the yr in the top 10


150-170K??? That is just flat out nonsense. The only way he ends up in that range is due to an injury. The man already has 56 punchouts. While I agree with your 3.75 to 4.00 ERA assessment, (because of that ugly first start) [mod edit] the strikeouts will not go away. Please, I challenge you to reply your reasoning as to why he won't have more than 200 strikeouts. Him pitching in the AL is not adequate reasoning. From what I hear he is now throwing 4 pitches, trying to develop a changeup.


Year Team G GS W L SV BS HLD CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
2005 DET 2 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 11.1 15 9 9 1 5 7 7.15 1.76 .313
2006 DET 30 30 17 9 0 0 0 1 1 186.0 187 78 75 21 60 124 3.63 1.33 .266
2007 DET 32 32 18 6 0 0 0 1 1 201.2 181 88 82 20 67 183 3.66 1.23 .233
2008 DET 33 33 11 17 0 0 0 1 0 201.0 195 119 108 18 87 163 4.84 1.40 .254
2009 DET 7 7 3 2 0 0 0 1 1 44.0 38 25 22 3 14 56 4.50 1.18 .228

Take the average of his 3 complete years in the majors (2006-2008) and you get: 196IP and 157 K

Now I challenge you to disprove those numbers...

Is he on pace to beat out his 3-yr average? Of course, pretty clear he is...But baseball is a game of averages, [mod edit]
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Re: Verlander's back

Postby outflow » Sat May 09, 2009 4:50 pm

RenPastana wrote:
outflow wrote:
RenPastana wrote:Verlander's got a sell-high sign all over his forehead...There is no way he will keep up at this pace (last 2-3 starts is waht I mean)...if you're a smart owner, throw him out there and see what you can get.

Verlander is at best a: 3.75+ ER, 1.27+ WHIP, 150-170K pitcher...If he pitched in the NL, these numbers would be significantly lower but he does not...

Very good pitcher but definitely does not end the yr in the top 10


150-170K??? That is just flat out nonsense. The only way he ends up in that range is due to an injury. The man already has 56 punchouts. While I agree with your 3.75 to 4.00 ERA assessment, (because of that ugly first start) [mod edit] the strikeouts will not go away. Please, I challenge you to reply your reasoning as to why he won't have more than 200 strikeouts. Him pitching in the AL is not adequate reasoning. From what I hear he is now throwing 4 pitches, trying to develop a changeup.


Year Team G GS W L SV BS HLD CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
2005 DET 2 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 11.1 15 9 9 1 5 7 7.15 1.76 .313
2006 DET 30 30 17 9 0 0 0 1 1 186.0 187 78 75 21 60 124 3.63 1.33 .266
2007 DET 32 32 18 6 0 0 0 1 1 201.2 181 88 82 20 67 183 3.66 1.23 .233
2008 DET 33 33 11 17 0 0 0 1 0 201.0 195 119 108 18 87 163 4.84 1.40 .254
2009 DET 7 7 3 2 0 0 0 1 1 44.0 38 25 22 3 14 56 4.50 1.18 .228

Take the average of his 3 complete years in the majors (2006-2008) and you get: 196IP and 157 K

Now I challenge you to disprove those numbers...

Is he on pace to beat out his 3-yr average? Of course, pretty clear he is...But baseball is a game of averages, [mod edit]


I disagree in the utility of 2006's numbers for one huge reason. He was on a stringent pitch count which limited the total number of starts to 30 and the number of total innings to 186. That is a reduction of around 7.4%. Those 2006 numbers tell a story of a young Verlander without a tremendous amount of experience. Now with that said I averaged some numbers from 2007, 2008, and 2009 (of which in Verlanders case is approximately 21% completed, hardly an insignificant sample). While this may inconvenience your argument, I feel this more fair, than throwing out the 2009 numbers.

Averaging some ratios, they come out to be
K's per inning ,BB's per inning,Hits per inning
2009---1.3,.32,.86
2008---.81,.43,.97
2007---.91,.33,.90

Here I carry projections out to 201 innings. If Verlander kept the 2009 pace he will finish with 260 K's, 2008 183 K's and 2007 199 K's.
With Verlander averaging around 6 and 1/3 innings per start in 2009, he has another 164 innings to pitch if one assumes he again reaches 33 starts (a 2009 total of 208 innings). This would put him on pace for 269 K's/2009, 188 K's/2008, and 204 K's/2007.

With the state of the Tigers (clearly needing Verlander to pitch alot of innings), I think that 208 innings is a very low projection. I threw in the BB's per inning and Hits per inning to further that thought. His walks per inning are down significantly from last year and have strong company with the 2007 numbers. As for hits per inning he is clearly beating out his career ratio which suggests some fall off. Since he has improved BOTH walks per 9 and hits per 9, this suggests that he has turned some sort of corner and will be trusted upon to pitch deep into games. While I never liked Verlander for the ERA/WHIP powerhouse potential, there is what I feel overwhelming evidence in the numbers that he will get +200 strikeouts.

And finally, he is a young 26 years old. Doesn't that, in itself, scream for growth? To say a pitcher won't get strikeouts merely because he is in the AL is not acceptable.
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Re: Verlander's back

Postby RenPastana » Sat May 09, 2009 5:09 pm

outflow wrote:
RenPastana wrote:
outflow wrote:
150-170K??? That is just flat out nonsense. The only way he ends up in that range is due to an injury. The man already has 56 punchouts. While I agree with your 3.75 to 4.00 ERA assessment, (because of that ugly first start) [mod edit] the strikeouts will not go away. Please, I challenge you to reply your reasoning as to why he won't have more than 200 strikeouts. Him pitching in the AL is not adequate reasoning. From what I hear he is now throwing 4 pitches, trying to develop a changeup.


Year Team G GS W L SV BS HLD CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
2005 DET 2 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 11.1 15 9 9 1 5 7 7.15 1.76 .313
2006 DET 30 30 17 9 0 0 0 1 1 186.0 187 78 75 21 60 124 3.63 1.33 .266
2007 DET 32 32 18 6 0 0 0 1 1 201.2 181 88 82 20 67 183 3.66 1.23 .233
2008 DET 33 33 11 17 0 0 0 1 0 201.0 195 119 108 18 87 163 4.84 1.40 .254
2009 DET 7 7 3 2 0 0 0 1 1 44.0 38 25 22 3 14 56 4.50 1.18 .228

Take the average of his 3 complete years in the majors (2006-2008) and you get: 196IP and 157 K

Now I challenge you to disprove those numbers...

Is he on pace to beat out his 3-yr average? Of course, pretty clear he is...But baseball is a game of averages, [mod edit]


I disagree in the utility of 2006's numbers for one huge reason. He was on a stringent pitch count which limited the total number of starts to 30 and the number of total innings to 186. That is a reduction of around 7.4%. Those 2006 numbers tell a story of a young Verlander without a tremendous amount of experience. Now with that said I averaged some numbers from 2007, 2008, and 2009 (of which in Verlanders case is approximately 21% completed, hardly an insignificant sample). While this may inconvenience your argument, I feel this more fair, than throwing out the 2009 numbers.

Averaging some ratios, they come out to be
K's per inning ,BB's per inning,Hits per inning
2009---1.3,.32,.86
2008---.81,.43,.97
2007---.91,.33,.90

Here I carry projections out to 201 innings. If Verlander kept the 2009 pace he will finish with 260 K's, 2008 183 K's and 2007 199 K's.
With Verlander averaging around 6 and 1/3 innings per start in 2009, he has another 164 innings to pitch if one assumes he again reaches 33 starts (a 2009 total of 208 innings). This would put him on pace for 269 K's/2009, 188 K's/2008, and 204 K's/2007.

With the state of the Tigers (clearly needing Verlander to pitch alot of innings), I think that 208 innings is a very low projection. I threw in the BB's per inning and Hits per inning to further that thought. His walks per inning are down significantly from last year and have strong company with the 2007 numbers. As for hits per inning he is clearly beating out his career ratio which suggests some fall off. Since he has improved BOTH walks per 9 and hits per 9, this suggests that he has turned some sort of corner and will be trusted upon to pitch deep into games. While I never liked Verlander for the ERA/WHIP powerhouse potential, there is what I feel overwhelming evidence in the numbers that he will get +200 strikeouts.

And finally, he is a young 26 years old. Doesn't that, in itself, scream for growth? To say a pitcher won't get strikeouts merely because he is in the AL is not acceptable.


Good rhetoric to read, however I never once said Verlander wouldn't reach 200 K's in a season bc he pitches in the AL..What I said was his numbers could be better if he pitched in the NL...Those are two very different things...

While I agree, as I mentioned previously, that Verlander can easily finish out this season with better ratios than his previous years is a possibility, however the law of averages tend to outdo most other factors.

Not to mention... 269 K's is a joke!

Going by your theory, Longoria should hit 57 HR this year because he might have made some adjustments to his swing, right?

(He has 11 HR thru 30 games thus fair...57HR for the yr is what he's on pace for)

The same can be said for Greinke...is he going to end up with an ERA under 1? . . . :-t

Obviously, this is not going to happen therefore I rule your argument obsolete based on the law of averages
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Re: Verlander's back

Postby Neato Torpedo » Sat May 09, 2009 5:37 pm

Jarrod Washburn 4 Cy Young.
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Re: Verlander's back

Postby outflow » Sat May 09, 2009 6:36 pm

RenPastana wrote:
outflow wrote:
RenPastana wrote:
Year Team G GS W L SV BS HLD CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
2005 DET 2 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 11.1 15 9 9 1 5 7 7.15 1.76 .313
2006 DET 30 30 17 9 0 0 0 1 1 186.0 187 78 75 21 60 124 3.63 1.33 .266
2007 DET 32 32 18 6 0 0 0 1 1 201.2 181 88 82 20 67 183 3.66 1.23 .233
2008 DET 33 33 11 17 0 0 0 1 0 201.0 195 119 108 18 87 163 4.84 1.40 .254
2009 DET 7 7 3 2 0 0 0 1 1 44.0 38 25 22 3 14 56 4.50 1.18 .228

Take the average of his 3 complete years in the majors (2006-2008) and you get: 196IP and 157 K

Now I challenge you to disprove those numbers...

Is he on pace to beat out his 3-yr average? Of course, pretty clear he is...But baseball is a game of averages, [mod edit]


I disagree in the utility of 2006's numbers for one huge reason. He was on a stringent pitch count which limited the total number of starts to 30 and the number of total innings to 186. That is a reduction of around 7.4%. Those 2006 numbers tell a story of a young Verlander without a tremendous amount of experience. Now with that said I averaged some numbers from 2007, 2008, and 2009 (of which in Verlanders case is approximately 21% completed, hardly an insignificant sample). While this may inconvenience your argument, I feel this more fair, than throwing out the 2009 numbers.

Averaging some ratios, they come out to be
K's per inning ,BB's per inning,Hits per inning
2009---1.3,.32,.86
2008---.81,.43,.97
2007---.91,.33,.90

Here I carry projections out to 201 innings. If Verlander kept the 2009 pace he will finish with 260 K's, 2008 183 K's and 2007 199 K's.
With Verlander averaging around 6 and 1/3 innings per start in 2009, he has another 164 innings to pitch if one assumes he again reaches 33 starts (a 2009 total of 208 innings). This would put him on pace for 269 K's/2009, 188 K's/2008, and 204 K's/2007.

With the state of the Tigers (clearly needing Verlander to pitch alot of innings), I think that 208 innings is a very low projection. I threw in the BB's per inning and Hits per inning to further that thought. His walks per inning are down significantly from last year and have strong company with the 2007 numbers. As for hits per inning he is clearly beating out his career ratio which suggests some fall off. Since he has improved BOTH walks per 9 and hits per 9, this suggests that he has turned some sort of corner and will be trusted upon to pitch deep into games. While I never liked Verlander for the ERA/WHIP powerhouse potential, there is what I feel overwhelming evidence in the numbers that he will get +200 strikeouts.

And finally, he is a young 26 years old. Doesn't that, in itself, scream for growth? To say a pitcher won't get strikeouts merely because he is in the AL is not acceptable.


Good rhetoric to read, however I never once said Verlander wouldn't reach 200 K's in a season bc he pitches in the AL..What I said was his numbers could be better if he pitched in the NL...Those are two very different things...

While I agree, as I mentioned previously, that Verlander can easily finish out this season with better ratios than his previous years is a possibility, however the law of averages tend to outdo most other factors.

Not to mention... 269 K's is a joke!

Going by your theory, Longoria should hit 57 HR this year because he might have made some adjustments to his swing, right?

(He has 11 HR thru 30 games thus fair...57HR for the yr is what he's on pace for)

The same can be said for Greinke...is he going to end up with an ERA under 1? . . . :-t

Obviously, this is not going to happen therefore I rule your argument obsolete based on the law of averages


"law of averages tend to outdo most other factors" What does that even mean? You do realize there is no law of averages right? Correct, you did not say he wouldn't get 200K's you said he was at best a 150-170K pitcher because he pitches in the AL. Again unacceptable. I see the spin you are trying to pull. I didn't say at all which projection he would reach, all I said was that there was overwhelming evidence that he will have more than 200K's by season's end (without injury).

I challenge you to prove otherwise.
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Re: Verlander's back

Postby RenPastana » Sat May 09, 2009 7:05 pm

RenPastana wrote:Verlander is at best a: 3.75+ ER, 1.27+ WHIP, 150-170K pitcher...If he pitched in the NL, these numbers would be significantly lower but he does not...


is what I said...stop tryin to put words into my mouth buddy...

It's bc of people like you that I end up winning my leagues with such ease...always overvaluing pitchers after good back to back starts or after a hitter has an incredible week numbers wise...Keep it up bc this is when the snake bites!

Verlander for CY Young: 269K's! Per outflow

Look for me in September (I will be here) and I will challenge and prove you otherwise! MONEY!
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Re: Verlander's back

Postby outflow » Sat May 09, 2009 7:10 pm

RenPastana wrote:
RenPastana wrote:Verlander is at best a: 3.75+ ER, 1.27+ WHIP, 150-170K pitcher...If he pitched in the NL, these numbers would be significantly lower but he does not...


is what I said...stop tryin to put words into my mouth buddy...

It's bc of people like you that I end up winning my leagues with such ease...always overvaluing pitchers after good back to back starts or after a hitter has an incredible week numbers wise...Keep it up bc this is when the snake bites!

Verlander for CY Young: 269K's! Per outflow

Look for me in September (I will be here) and I will challenge and prove you otherwise! MONEY!


You got nothing. hahahahahhaa.
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Re: Verlander's back

Postby RenPastana » Sat May 09, 2009 7:21 pm

outflow wrote:
RenPastana wrote:
RenPastana wrote:Verlander is at best a: 3.75+ ER, 1.27+ WHIP, 150-170K pitcher...If he pitched in the NL, these numbers would be significantly lower but he does not...


is what I said...stop tryin to put words into my mouth buddy...

It's bc of people like you that I end up winning my leagues with such ease...always overvaluing pitchers after good back to back starts or after a hitter has an incredible week numbers wise...Keep it up bc this is when the snake bites!

Verlander for CY Young: 269K's! Per outflow

Look for me in September (I will be here) and I will challenge and prove you otherwise! MONEY!


You got nothing. hahahahahhaa.


I got you thinking Verlander ends up with 269K's...I am going to enjoy the feedback and laughs from all over the cafe over this one... :-b

Also, Put down Harden to end with 3K/IP...great logic dude!
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Re: Verlander's back

Postby outflow » Sat May 09, 2009 9:33 pm

RenPastana wrote:
outflow wrote:
RenPastana wrote:
is what I said...stop tryin to put words into my mouth buddy...

It's bc of people like you that I end up winning my leagues with such ease...always overvaluing pitchers after good back to back starts or after a hitter has an incredible week numbers wise...Keep it up bc this is when the snake bites!

Verlander for CY Young: 269K's! Per outflow

Look for me in September (I will be here) and I will challenge and prove you otherwise! MONEY!


You got nothing. hahahahahhaa.


I got you thinking Verlander ends up with 269K's...I am going to enjoy the feedback and laughs from all over the cafe over this one... :-b

Also, Put down Harden to end with 3K/IP...great logic dude!


lol, yeah we'll see how many laughs I get. Your debate skills are terrible.
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