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the official "I hate wins as a category" thread

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Re: the official "I hate wins as a category" thread

Postby Matthias » Sat Apr 18, 2009 12:17 pm

If you play in a 1x1 league with OPS and Wins or Quality Starts, then you don't consider any of the other stats. But as I've said repeatedly before, it's not about Stat X vs Stat Y; it's about how Stat X or Stat Y fit into the scoring system in its entirety. In some leagues, K/9 might be a great stat to add; if you add it to a straight 5x5 or are using it to replace K's then it's not a good stat because you then have Wins, Saves, and 3 rates stats, making relievers too valuable. Wins vs Quality Starts... same thing. You can't weigh the relative merits in a vacuum.
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Re: the official "I hate wins as a category" thread

Postby Matthias » Sat Apr 18, 2009 12:22 pm

walkoffblast wrote:I think most of us are interested in which stat is a better reflection of talent vs luck of the draw which requires comparing the two but no one said they should be on equal footing although this person seemed to attempt to equivocate the two at length:

That wasn't an equivocation of Wins vs Quality Starts; that was an examination of the relative prevalence between them in the AL vs NL.

All I've ever and consistently said is that Quality Starts have their own biases that generally tend to get overlooked in discussions of Wins. I don't think I've ever argued which measure is more flawed, simply that they are both flawed, but that the ways in which Quality Starts are flawed correlate to other categories which get scored in fantasy baseball.

In any case, for all the hot air you've blown on this subject and all of the weighing-in you've done, I still have yet to see you make a positive statement on what it is you really believe and what data you believe supports that view. All you do is nit-pick at what other people say which is a much easier, but really pretty empty, way of doing anything (or really, not doing anything).
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Re: the official "I hate wins as a category" thread

Postby auclairkeithbc » Sat Apr 18, 2009 12:36 pm

Matthias wrote:
walkoffblast wrote:I find that too many subscribe to this flawed logic: wins has flaws, QS has flaws therefore wins and QS are equally flawed.

I find that too many subscribe to this flawed logic: it is possible to really equivocate between wins and quality starts.


first, everyone has a right to play in any kind of league they want, a league that uses QS instead of Ws, a league that uses WPA or VORP only, and there is nothing wrong with any scoring format.

having said that, it seems like this thread has become a debate on which scoring format an undecided league should use, one with wins or QS (or in the case of one person both!)

i think the answer is still wins. QS are a little more predictable, and quite a bit more correlated with having generally good SPs, but those differences aren't really a good enough reason to switch from the current standard 5X5 format. again, make your league however you want. but you can also decide to change some rules of poker too, to take some of the luck out, and even make it slightly better, but it probably isn't worth it.

also, there is one thing that keeps getting overlooked. WINS ARE EXCITING!!! rooting for your starter to actually get a W, makes you enjoy the game in more normal way than rooting for the QS. when you are playing for the W, you really care about those bullpen arms, and when they are on the brink of blowing a lead, but get the job done, it is the same feeling you get when you are rooting for your favorite team to lock down the win (i'd concede that rooting for RP wins can have the opposite effect, but it is so random it hardly matters.) when you root for QS and have a pitcher with 6IP and 3ER, you are now desperately hoping he leaves the game so that he doesn't luck himself out of a QS. that is no fun.

part of fantasy baseball is the competition and trying to prove you are the best, but part of fantasy baseball is also an excuse to get more excited about watching baseball. we are all baseball fans right?

stick with wins!
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Re: the official "I hate wins as a category" thread

Postby Maris09 » Sat Apr 18, 2009 3:42 pm

TLincecum55 wrote:The previous argument about ERA and WHIP being affect is irrelevant, because we are comparing wins to QS not QS to W, ERA, WHIP, K, SAVE,HOLD, IBB, ect...

I agree that it's tough to own a quality pitcher like Haren and not get the Wins, but the point made is absolutely not irrelevant.
Some people are distgusted by a pitcher giving up a huge amount of runs and still getting a win. It helps balance it out a little if their ERA and WHIP then takes a dump because of it.
Also as some have mentioned, you value/draft pitchers with their team's offensive abilities in mind. It's something you plan and prepare for, therefore it's strategy. Same can be said about relievers who get Wins. If you chose to occupy a roster spot with a MR over a SP, that's strategy.
There is no strategy behind one pitcher factually pitching worse than another, yet getting a QS while the other guy does not get one (it can in fact, happen within the same game, and to me there's no bigger flaw then that exact scenario).

Right now Dave freakin Bush has a 5.50 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, no Wins, and 2 Quality Starts.
Adam Wainwright has a 3.31 ERA, is 2-0, yet has 0 Quality Starts



Matthias wrote:In any case, for all the hot air you've blown on this subject and all of the weighing-in you've done, I still have yet to see you make a positive statement on what it is you really believe and what data you believe supports that view. All you do is nit-pick at what other people say which is a much easier, but really pretty empty, way of doing anything (or really, not doing anything).

Ding...Ding...Ding
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Re: the official "I hate wins as a category" thread

Postby walkoffblast » Sat Apr 18, 2009 4:50 pm

Maris09 wrote:
walkoffblast wrote: While its unfortunate your guy left after 5 scoreless how much did he really add over the other pitcher in an inning less.

3 less runs and a win for his team :-?

walkoffblast wrote: If he left after 5 it would seem he must have thrown a lot of pitches and got somewhat lucky?

Or....his team had a fat lead and there was no reason to leave him in.
Hell of a way for a guy who pitched WORSE than this guy to get MORE credit.

walkoffblast wrote:Now lets compare that to wins. You can post an era of 9.00+ and get a win and an era of 0.00 and not get a win.

You're painting half the picture. The guy who posts and era of 9.00 and gets a win, will hurt himself in 2 Categories, ERA and WHIP.
So that's a "+1" in the Wins Cat, and a "-2" in the other Cats.

walkoffblast wrote:This is clearly not equally flawed.

Well, at least you got that part right.


I'm actually not of the opinion one is really any better than the other, as they are both flawed. But you've presented nothing to back the notion that QS's are any better.


Well post the two pitchers stat lines. Runs is not the only way to measure performance. How do you know what the other pitcher would have done if he had to pitch another inning?

Painting half the picture? How is posting an era of 9.00 positive in any way. It clearly is not. In QS he would go 0 for 3, in wins 1 for 3. He should not be getting any positive value for pitching terribly. My point here is that I have not seen anybody make a strong case QS is flawed beyond the 6 innings 3 runs vs 9 innings 4 runs scenario. If that flaw is still obviously better than wins, it would seem QS is superior.

Maris09 wrote:
TLincecum55 wrote:The previous argument about ERA and WHIP being affect is irrelevant, because we are comparing wins to QS not QS to W, ERA, WHIP, K, SAVE,HOLD, IBB, ect...

I agree that it's tough to own a quality pitcher like Haren and not get the Wins, but the point made is absolutely not irrelevant.
Some people are distgusted by a pitcher giving up a huge amount of runs and still getting a win. It helps balance it out a little if their ERA and WHIP then takes a dump because of it.
Also as some have mentioned, you value/draft pitchers with their team's offensive abilities in mind. It's something you plan and prepare for, therefore it's strategy. Same can be said about relievers who get Wins. If you chose to occupy a roster spot with a MR over a SP, that's strategy.
There is no strategy behind one pitcher factually pitching worse than another, yet getting a QS while the other guy does not get one (it can in fact, happen within the same game, and to me there's no bigger flaw then that exact scenario).

Right now Dave freakin Bush has a 5.50 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, no Wins, and 2 Quality Starts.
Adam Wainwright has a 3.31 ERA, is 2-0, yet has 0 Quality Starts



Matthias wrote:In any case, for all the hot air you've blown on this subject and all of the weighing-in you've done, I still have yet to see you make a positive statement on what it is you really believe and what data you believe supports that view. All you do is nit-pick at what other people say which is a much easier, but really pretty empty, way of doing anything (or really, not doing anything).

Ding...Ding...Ding


Funny how you conveniently "forget" to include Wainwrights WHIP. Therein lies the answer. He has been walking a ton. Bush's numbers are distorted by a horrible relief appearance. I'll assume these were the two in question. Wainwright threw 102 pitches in 5 innings are you that surprised he had to leave the game?

So are you guys saying your opinion is right even though you cannot prove it but mine is wrong because you choose not to think I am making arguments since I did not post a bunch of numbers and claim they mean something they do not? Or one of few small samples that look odd compared to the many that don't? (although I did that to show you how pointless an exercise it was and you claimed it was a bad argument; what? I do it to show you its pointless, bad, you do it, genius?) I guess you guys have a pretty high opinion of yourselves.

I believe that it is fun to try and guess who wins otherwise the category would completely suck. Now that still does not mean the pitcher wins so its kind of grabbing at straws. Just because you can draft with a teams offense in mind does not mean this makes the stat better than the other. QS is clearly a better determination of ability. I am confused why you think QS correlates with other stats but wins does not? Wins is clearly related to era and whip as well it is just not as high because it allows you to pitch worse and still get a win. That is the main reason it would be less correlated. Is that really a positive for wins? Runs support is the key to wins and it is harder to predict than you might think. That is what makes wins so random, pitchers on good teams can get bad support and vice versa.

The research most seasons shows pitchers put up a 2.00ish era in QS. In roto this will come to fruition more likely than not so it is clearly worth counting. In H2H pitching is a crap shoot no matter what so small annoyances should not be surprising. I like QS in those settings because in a week it is very hard to quantify the value of pitching a lot of innings over the course of a season. QS helps reward SP which is pretty devalued in most leagues especially H2H. We are trying counting both this year to give SPs more value, essentially you get 1 out of 7 for winning or pitching good and 2 out of 7 for doing both.

As far as a stat for pitching ability QS to me seems superior but I do think wins can be more fun. Just remember deciding you enjoy a certain stat more does not make it a superior predictor of ability. Like someone said choose what you like its your league just get the facts straight.
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Re: the official "I hate wins as a category" thread

Postby Matthias » Sat Apr 18, 2009 5:57 pm

walkoffblast wrote:I am confused why you think QS correlates with other stats but wins does not? Wins is clearly related to era and whip as well it is just not as high because it allows you to pitch worse and still get a win. That is the main reason it would be less correlated.

It's not that; it's the things that make Quality Starts a biased statistic (league, park, weather conditions) all affect the pitcher in question vis-a-vis everyone else pitching in the major leagues that day on his statistics but does not affect the pitcher in question vis-a-vis his opposing pitcher that day which is how he gets a Win. You could be playing in a beer-league field with 200 foot fences and have it be 98 degrees in Denver and you still have to outpitch the other guy on the mound.

As far as your continued kvetching on small sample sizes, here.... it was definitely more common to get a QS in the NL than it was in the AL from 1984 to 1991 (the period which this guy looked at it). 49.3% of the starts in the AL went for a QS; 54.9% of the starts in the NL did.
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Re: the official "I hate wins as a category" thread

Postby Maris09 » Sun Apr 19, 2009 12:48 pm

walkoffblast wrote:He has been walking a ton.

He had also been striking out a lot of guys. You know, something that good pitchers are gonna do from time to time, unlike Dave Bush.
Problem is, if you've got a high strikeout pitcher (something people obviously draft for), or a guy who's team has complied a huge lead, then there's a decent chance the guy is going to be taken out after 5 or during the 6th.
It DOES NOT mean his performance still wasn't better than some turd who gives up a bunch of hits and 3 runs over 6 innings, and leaves with his team losing. To me (and to most probably), that type of start is not as good (real baseball or fantasy baseball), as a guy who dominates over 5.1 or 5.2, strikes out a bunch of hitters, and doesn't give up any runs.

walkoffblast wrote:Wainwright threw 102 pitches in 5 innings are you that surprised he had to leave the game?

When did I say I was surprised he left the game?.....with a big lead might add.
More dissapointed that he was dominant over his 5 innings, whereas my opponent had a mediocre 6 innings and got the QS.

walkoffblast wrote:In H2H pitching is a crap shoot no matter what so small annoyances should not be surprising.

Probably the first thing you've said that I agree with.
And I've stated I didn't think one was better than other, just that they were both flawed.

walkoffblast wrote:We are trying counting both this year to give SPs more value, essentially you get 1 out of 7 for winning or pitching good and 2 out of 7 for doing both.

I've also stated that if anything, they should be used together. Please let us know how that works out for your league over the season.

walkoffblast wrote:Like someone said choose what you like its your league just get the facts straight.

You've still just given mostly opinion, but I guess we can agree to somewhat disagree.
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Re: the official "I hate wins as a category" thread

Postby Ender » Sun Apr 19, 2009 4:12 pm

Burnett 6.1 IP, 3 H, 3R, 3 ER, 7 BB, 2 K, 2 HR.

Quality start, only gave up 7 walks and 2 HR.
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Re: the official "I hate wins as a category" thread

Postby auclairkeithbc » Sun Apr 19, 2009 4:18 pm

Ender wrote:Burnett 6.1 IP, 3 H, 3R, 3 ER, 7 BB, 2 K, 2 HR.

Quality start, only gave up 7 walks and 2 HR.


Kept the Yanks in the game long enough to give them a shot to win the game right? Isn't that the point of a quality start. Don't leave too much of the game for the relievers and don't leave the game with too many runs on the board. (He did leave the game with the bases juiced though, which he was bailed out of).
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Re: the official "I hate wins as a category" thread

Postby Ender » Sun Apr 19, 2009 4:41 pm

auclairkeithbc wrote:
Ender wrote:Burnett 6.1 IP, 3 H, 3R, 3 ER, 7 BB, 2 K, 2 HR.

Quality start, only gave up 7 walks and 2 HR.


Kept the Yanks in the game long enough to give them a shot to win the game right? Isn't that the point of a quality start. Don't leave too much of the game for the relievers and don't leave the game with too many runs on the board. (He did leave the game with the bases juiced though, which he was bailed out of).


If that were true 9 IP with 4 ER would be one and so would 5.2 IP with 0 ER :)

From the basis of this discussion though which is that QS is a better indicator of a well pitched game than wins I'd say that Burnett pitched extremely poorly today and got lucky to only give up 3 ER.
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