Trade my Hellickson for Angel Villalona in 20 team dynasty?

[jmlevy]

Even though I liked Hellickson better than Villalona they are still fairly close so that trade is fine. And I'm a bit more pessimistic on Villalona than most (I wouldn't have Villalona in my top 50).

I have to ask: does my reasoning (pertaining to my rotation, in particular) not apply due to the extreme depth of this dynasty league? While the league depth certainly increases Hellickson's value, I tend to believe that it increases a rare stud-like talent such as Villalona a bit more. Laporta, Villalona, and eventually Hicks appear to be the future of my offense (from a farm club perspective), along with current major leaguers Morneau, Ethier, Salty, etc. Granted that I already have a solid first basemen for the future (Morneau, and potentially Laporta should the OF experiment fail), Villalona might become expendable as soon as his value rises to the same level as present-day Laporta.

On the other hand, does my rotation appear balanced in terms of present and future production? Cahill, Niemann, and McDonald are all wading their respective teams' rotation, with Thompson about 3/4 a season away and Main about 2 years away. I don't plan for Johan, Maine, or Slowey to go anywhere anytime soon, while the others (especially Duchscherer) might be trade bait come ASB. Pelfrey and Reyes retain upside, while my three rookie starters are fine-tuning their talents. Hence my claim of rotational balance/depth.

My reasoning for making the Hellickson/Villalona swap is such: with Cahill, Niemann, and McDonald currently pitching in the majors, I felt I had enough immediate production/potential from my SP prospects to withstand the loss of Hellickson. Add to the fact that Villalona has a much higher ceiling than Hellickson, and this provides increased trade bait compared to Hellickson.

After this deal, I have a rotation consisting of the following: Johan Santana, John Maine, Kevin Slowey, Mike Pelfrey, Anthony Reyes, Justin Duchscherer (DL), Trevor Cahill (farm), Jeff Niemann (farm), James McDonald (farm), Daryl Thompson (farm), Michael Main (farm), and Jake Westbrook (DL, but ehh...not in long-term plans).

[kab21]

The problem with just shooting for upside with guys like Villalona is if they totally bust you aren't able to grab decent replacement off the waiver wire. In this case you have plenty of depth at 1B but that also means that you have less need for Villalona. In other cases you might be stuck playing Russell Branyan and Chris Shelton type players (in case your risky prospect busts) because there isn't anybody else available.