Trade my Hellickson for Angel Villalona in 20 team dynasty?

[jmlevy]

EDIT: SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATE (viewtopic.php?t=376934#p3022674)

20 team dynasty H2H; 6x6 w/OPS & Holds; 22 ML keepers, 12-man farm

C - Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Tex - C,1B)
1B - Justin Morneau (Min - 1B)
2B - Orlando Hudson (Ari - 2B)
3B - Hank Blalock (Tex - 1B,3B)
SS - Edgar Renteria (Det - SS)
LF - Matt Holliday (Col - LF)
CF - Jayson Werth (Phi - LF,CF,RF)
RF - Randy Winn (SF - LF,CF,RF)
UTIL - Andre Ethier (LAD - LF,RF), Aaron Rowand (SF - CF), Mark Teahen (KC - 1B,3B), Alexi Casilla (Min - 2B), Kurt Suzuki (Oak - C), Chris Duncan (StL - 1B,LF), Matt Joyce (TB - LF,RF)
DL - Anderson Hernandez (Was - 2B)

SP - Johan Santana (NYM), John Maine (NYM), Kevin Slowey (Min), Anthony Reyes (Cle), Dave Bush (Mil), Brandon McCarthy (Tex),
RP - J.J. Putz (Sea), Brad Ziegler (Oak), Frank Francisco (Tex), George Sherrill (Bal)
DL - Justin Duchscherer (Oak), Jake Westbrook (Cle)

Farm Club:
1 - Reid Brignac SS TB
2 - Daryl Thompson SP CIN
3 - George Kotteras C Bos
4 - Michael Main SP TEX
5 - Jeff Niemann SP TB
6 - Matt LaPorta 1B/OF CLE
7 - Jeremy Hellickson SP TB
8 - James McDonald SP LAD
9 - Trevor Cahill SP OAK
10 - Aaron Hicks OF MIN
11 - Nick Weglarz OF CLE
12 - Ryan Westmoreland OF BOS

So I have been chasing a 3B prospect all offseason. One manager holds the rights to Dayan Viciedo, Angel Villalona, and Neil Walker. I inquired with this manager to see what it would take to land one of his 3B prospects. He responded asking for a young SP or a good SP prospect.

Would you offer Jeremy Hellickson (and Aaron Rowand, in an attempt to dump a vet for additional roster space) for Angel Villalona? I have a solid core of young SP prospects in Cahill, Niemann, McDonald, Thompson and Main, so I feel I could afford to lose Hell-raiser.

His farm club:
1 - Bailey, Homer (81.2 IP - SP - CIN)
2 - Hanson, Tommy (0 IPs - SP - ATL)
3 - Jennings, Desmond (0 Abs - OF - TB)
4 - McCutchen, Andrew (0 Abs - OF - Pit)
5 - Porcello, Rick (0 IPs - SP - DET)
6 - Reddick, Josh (0 Abs - OF - BOS)
7 - Rosario, Wilin (0 Abs - C - Col)
8 - Smith, Greg (190.1 IPs - SP - Col)
9 - Viciedo, Dayan (0 Abs - 3B - CWS)
10 - Villalona, Angel (0 Abs - 3B - SF)
11 - Walker, Neil (0 Abs - 3B - Pit)

[RugbyD]

without hesitiation. Villalona's potential is a multiple of Hellickson's, though I think he ends up at 1B, but I'd do that deal no matter what.

[kab21]

Villalona has already been moved off of 3B so you're not solving your problem with him. Plus it's going to take several years for him to reach the majors.

The trade is alright but I would stick with your pitcher. Your MLB rotation could get thin fast with several weak pitchers in there. And you're stacked at 1B. If I was going to make a trade I would concentrate on finding a SS or 3B like you were trying.

[DevilDriver]

No question you should make that trade. Hellickson is nothing more than a #3 or 4 starter at best, while Villalona has huge upside. If he improves his plate discipline this season, he could be a top 25 prospect.

EDIT: and yes, he is a 1B now, but regardless you win that trade easily (for prospects you should go by value, not position)

[J35J]

Hellickson is in the mold of Litsch, Sonnanstine, Slowey, etc that are just control types without any dominate pitch. Good solid major league pitchers but limited fantasy potential. Villalona is still quite a ways away from making any impact himself but his upside is right up there with the best.

I'd go with Vill.

[kab21]

Well I'm in the minority but in a deep league with deep rosters I give additional points to average players like Hellickson. Even though I acknowledge Villalona's upside I'm not a big fan of his especially at 1B. He could be fairly good and still put up average numbers. and there is also the fact that Hellickson will contribute faster which is important to me in fantasy since my focus is more in the 0-2 yr timeline instead of in the 3-5 long-term plan.

[J35J]

Well I'm in the minority but in a deep league with deep rosters I give additional points to average players like Hellickson. Even though I acknowledge Villalona's upside I'm not a big fan of his especially at 1B. He could be fairly good and still put up average numbers. and there is also the fact that Hellickson will contribute faster which is important to me in fantasy since my focus is more in the 0-2 yr timeline instead of in the 3-5 long-term plan.

Which makes complete sense....without specifiying I tend to think the league size is a "typical" 12 teamer with no additional rosters spots. If you are in larger leagues than a Sonnanstine, Litsch, Slowey type definately gets a bump in value while waiting on someone who is still 3 or so years away is a waste of time. More specifics on all of this needs to come out before you can say....but if we are just rating the prospects then I gotta lean toward Villalona.

Edit: I need to read better I guess.....this is a 20 team dynasty....Hell's value is definately higher in a deep league like this. Which makes them pretty equal overall....do you need the value now or can you wait on a potential better talent in Villalona?

[DevilDriver]

Hellickson gets bumped up a bit in a deep league, but regardless I think Villalona's massive potential gives him a clear edge in fantasy value.

[jmlevy]

Okay, here's an update:

I just pulled off a hail mary trade, fully expecting the owner to either flatout reject it or counter with something more balanced.

The offer was as follows: My Aaron Rowand, Dave Bush and Brandon McCarthy for his Kelly Johnson and Mike Pelfrey

With this trade in mind, I then went and dealt Jeremy Hellickson for Angel Villalona straight up. This offer is still pending trade committee approval.

My reasoning for making the Hellickson/Villalona swap is such: with Cahill, Niemann, and McDonald currently pitching in the majors, I felt I had enough immediate production/potential from my SP prospects to withstand the loss of Hellickson. Add to the fact that Villalona has a much higher ceiling than Hellickson, and this provides increased trade bait compared to Hellickson.

After this deal, I have a rotation consisting of the following: Johan Santana, John Maine, Kevin Slowey, Mike Pelfrey, Anthony Reyes, Justin Duchscherer (DL), Trevor Cahill (farm), Jeff Niemann (farm), James McDonald (farm), Daryl Thompson (farm), Michael Main (farm), and Jake Westbrook (DL, but ehh...not in long-term plans).

My two main priorities in the near future rest at 3B, then SS. Worst comes to worst, Villalona is exchanged for a top 3B prospect (Vitters, Moustakas, Viciedo, etc) or top SS prospect assuming Brignac continues down his flatlined path (Beckham, Donald, etc). Are we all in agreement?

P.S. It should be noted that over the offseason (minor league draft), I traded Tyler Colvin for Jeremy Hellickson straight up. I am now dealing Hellickson for Villalona straight up. Essentially, I have turned the awful bust that is Tyler Colvin into the future stud Angel Villalona!

[kab21]

Even though I liked Hellickson better than Villalona they are still fairly close so that trade is fine. And I'm a bit more pessimistic on Villalona than most (I wouldn't have Villalona in my top 50).

And I really like the other trade. I like the Rowand for KJ part. And Bush and McCarthy for Pelfrey is in your favor also. Pelfrey has fairly limited upside but I like him to have more sustained success than either of those 2.