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Experts Invitational ... Help pick apart our draft!

Postby Warpigs » Mon Apr 06, 2009 10:20 am

Our experts invitational league drafted Saturday night. There are nine prominent cafe members in the league, along with several fantasy experts from other areas. It's a 12-team roto league with normal categories (RS, BA, HR, SB, RBI, ERA, WHIP, K, W, S). We start C, 1b, 2b, 3b, ss, OF, OF, OF, Util, P, P, P, P, P and five bench spots. We'd love to hear your feedback on these draft results. One team owner (what) discussed his draft experience already at http://www.chinstrapninjas.com if you'd like to see more.

NikkiSixx
1. (1) Albert Pujols
2. (24) Carlos Lee
3. (25) Manny Ramirez
4. (48) Cole Hamels
5. (49) David Ortiz
6. (72) Bobby Abreu
7. (73) Chad Billingsley
8. (96) Yovani Gallardo
9. (97) Derek Jeter
10. (120) Howie Kendrick
11. (121) Kerry Wood
12. (144) Adrian Beltre
13. (145) Erik Bedard
14. (168) Adam Jones
15. (169) Brandon Morrow
16. (192) Trevor Hoffman
17. (193) Rickie Weeks
18. (216) Jarrod Saltalamacchia
19. (217) Grant Balfour
20. (240) Clay Buchholz

Steib McGriffs
1. (2) Hanley Ramirez
2. (23) Justin Morneau
3. (26) Dustin Pedroia
4. (47) Roy Halladay
5. (50) Geovany Soto
6. (71) Vernon Wells
7. (74) Roy Oswalt
8. (95) Ryan Ludwick
9. (98) Cliff Lee
10. (119) Andre Ethier
11. (122) Nelson Cruz
12. (143) Conor Jackson
13. (146) Jorge Cantu
14. (167) Mike Gonzalez
15. (170) Gavin Floyd
16. (191) Cameron Maybin
17. (194) Ryan Theriot
18. (215) Placido Polanco
19. (218) Dioner Navarro
20. (239) Joey Devine

Vandelay Industries
1. (3) Jose Reyes
2. (22) Lance Berkman
3. (27) Matt Holliday
4. (46) Brian McCann
5. (51) Chipper Jones
6. (70) Dan Uggla
7. (75) Adam Dunn
8. (94) Jon Lester
9. (99) Jonathan Broxton
10. (118) Adam Wainwright
11. (123) Johnny Damon
12. (142) Kevin Slowey
13. (147) John Danks
14. (166) Josh Johnson
15. (171) Scott Baker
16. (190) Joel Hanrahan
17. (195) Hiroki Kuroda
18. (214) Ubaldo Jimenez
19. (219) Xavier Nady
20. (238) Delmon Young

PicklePackers
1. (4) Grady Sizemore
2. (21) Prince Fielder
3. (28) CC Sabathia
4. (45) Russell Martin
5. (52) Shane Victorino
6. (69) Joe Nathan
7. (76) Hunter Pence
8. (93) Robinson Cano
9. (100) Daisuke Matsuzaka
10. (117) Joba Chamberlain
11. (124) Justin Verlander
12. (141) Carlos Marmol
13. (148) Jhonny Peralta
14. (165) Khalil Greene
15. (172) Kevin Gregg
16. (189) Mark Reynolds
17. (196) Johnny Cueto
18. (213) Jeremy Hermida
19. (220) Paul Maholm
20. (237) Chris Volstad

what
1. (5) David Wright
2. (20) Brandon Phillips
3. (29) Nick Markakis
4. (44) Alexei Ramirez
5. (53) Corey Hart
6. (68) Garrett Atkins
7. (77) Brad Lidge
8. (92) Scott Kazmir
9. (101) Raul Ibanez
10. (116) Brian Fuentes
11. (125) Edinson Volquez
12. (140) B.J. Ryan
13. (149) Pat Burrell
14. (164) Max Scherzer
15. (173) Jason Motte
16. (188) Hank Blalock
17. (197) Emmanuel Burriss
18. (212) Jair Jurrjens
19. (221) Ramon Hernandez
20. (236) Fausto Carmona

Porfi's Bar and Gril
1. (6) Miguel Cabrera
2. (19) B.J. Upton
3. (30) Carlos Quentin
4. (43) Ichiro Suzuki
5. (54) Adrian Gonzalez
6. (67) Troy Tulowitzki
7. (78) Mariano Rivera
8. (91) Chone Figgins
9. (102) John Lackey
10. (115) Ervin Santana
11. (126) Ryan Doumit
12. (139) Lastings Milledge
13. (150) David Price
14. (163) Ryan Dempster
15. (174) Edwin Encarnacion
16. (187) James Loney
17. (198) Kelly Johnson
18. (211) Jorge Posada
19. (222) Carlos Guillen
20. (235) Ben Sheets

Omaha
1. (7) Ryan Braun
2. (18) Tim Lincecum
3. (31) Jason Bay
4. (42) Kevin Youkilis
5. (55) Jonathan Papelbon
6. (66) Joey Votto
7. (79) James Shields
8. (90) Matt Wieters
9. (103) Michael Young
10. (114) A.J. Burnett
11. (127) Alex Gordon
12. (138) Jose Lopez
13. (151) Chris Young
14. (162) Brian Wilson
15. (175) Mike Napoli
16. (186) Chien-Ming Wang
17. (199) Joe Saunders
18. (210) Shin-Soo Choo
19. (223) Gil Meche
20. (234) Wandy Rodriguez

Gold Rush
1. (8) Ryan Howard
2. (17) Johan Santana
3. (32) Carl Crawford
4. (41) Jake Peavy
5. (56) Chris Davis
6. (65) Victor Martinez
7. (80) Francisco Rodriguez
8. (89) Stephen Drew
9. (104) Carlos Zambrano
10. (113) Justin Upton
11. (128) Francisco Cordero
12. (137) Milton Bradley
13. (152) Mike Aviles
14. (161) Jim Thome
15. (176) Willy Taveras
16. (185) Chris Carpenter
17. (200) Brad Ziegler
18. (209) Elijah Dukes
19. (224) John Smoltz
20. (233) Mark Teahen

Cat Whisperer
1. (9) Jimmy Rollins
2. (16) Evan Longoria
3. (33) Brandon Webb
4. (40) Alex Rios
5. (57) Jacoby Ellsbury
6. (64) Magglio Ordonez
7. (81) Aubrey Huff
8. (88) Joakim Soria
9. (105) Derrek Lee
10. (112) Zack Greinke
11. (129) Torii Hunter
12. (136) Derek Lowe
13. (153) Mark DeRosa
14. (160) Frank Francisco
15. (177) Ted Lilly
16. (184) Chris Ray
17. (201) Felipe Lopez
18. (208) Bengie Molina
19. (225) Carlos Villanueva
20. (232) Sean Marshall

FBC-Tavish
1. (10) Josh Hamilton
2. (15) Alfonso Soriano
3. (34) Brian Roberts
4. (39) Curtis Granderson
5. (58) Francisco Liriano
6. (63) Josh Beckett
7. (82) Rich Harden
8. (87) Ryan Zimmerman
9. (106) Carlos Pena
10. (111) Bobby Jenks
11. (130) Carlos Delgado
12. (135) Pablo Sandoval
13. (154) Matt Capps
14. (159) Miguel Tejada
15. (178) Randy Johnson
16. (183) Brad Hawpe
17. (202) Troy Percival
18. (207) Fernando Rodney
19. (226) Orlando Cabrera
20. (231) Kyle Davies

cordscords
1. (11) Mark Teixeira
2. (14) Chase Utley
3. (35) Vladimir Guerrero
4. (38) Alex Rodriguez
5. (59) Joe Mauer
6. (62) Rafael Furcal
7. (83) Jermaine Dye
8. (86) Jay Bruce
9. (107) Matt Cain
10. (110) Ricky Nolasco
11. (131) Chris Young
12. (134) Aaron Harang
13. (155) Brett Myers
14. (158) Clayton Kershaw
15. (179) Hideki Matsui
16. (182) Huston Street
17. (203) Matt Lindstrom
18. (206) John Maine
19. (227) George Sherrill
20. (230) Kelvim Escobar

L.A. Motorhead
1. (12) Ian Kinsler
2. (13) Carlos Beltran
3. (36) Matt Kemp
4. (37) Aramis Ramirez
5. (60) Dan Haren
6. (61) Nate McLouth
7. (84) J.J. Hardy
8. (85) Felix Hernandez
9. (108) Jose Valverde
10. (109) Javier Vazquez
11. (132) Jayson Werth
12. (133) Chris Iannetta
13. (156) Paul Konerko
14. (157) Heath Bell
15. (180) Chad Qualls
16. (181) Matt Garza
17. (204) Jered Weaver
18. (205) Carlos Gomez
19. (228) Manny Parra
20. (229) Billy Butler
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Re: Experts Invitational ... Help pick apart our draft!

Postby dave knight » Mon Apr 06, 2009 11:27 am

NickkiSixx: Best picks: Gallardo, Adam Jones, Weeks. Worst picks: Jeter, Wood

Steib: Best: Cliff Lee, Etiher, Maybin. Worst: Vernon Wells, Conor Jackson

Vandelay: Best: Dunn, Danks, Ubaldo. Worst: Wainwright

Pickle: Best: Reynolds, Cueto, Hermida. Worst: Cano, Dice-K

What: Best: Motte, Blalock, Jurrjens. Worst: Kazmir

Porfi's Best: Rivera, Milledge, EE. Worst: Figgins.

Omaha Best: Gordon, Meche, Wandy. Worst: Youkilis, Michael Young.

Gold Rush Best: JUpton, THome, Carpenter. Worst: V-Mart, Bradley.

Cat Best: Greinke, Lowe, Felipe Lopez. Worst: Huff

FBC Best: Randy Johnson, Beckett, Pena. Worst: Liriano, Jenks

Cords best: Nolasco, A-Rod, Bruce. Worst: Mauer, Myers

LA Best: Vazquez, Werth, Iannetta. Worst: Konerko.

A lot of these teams look very good and are balanced, such as the Dunn/Uggla squad and the L.A. team at the end, and the first team.
Last edited by dave knight on Mon Apr 06, 2009 9:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Experts Invitational ... Help pick apart our draft!

Postby Magnus_CA » Mon Apr 06, 2009 1:16 pm

Cat Whisperer here...

DK - interesting you thought Huff was my worst pick. My guess is that you don't believe he will repeat his 2008 numbers and/or you value him over other 1B's that were still available at that point.

I was hoping Atkins or Votto would be available in the 7th but both got taken in the 6th. I favor Huff over Lee, Pena, and Delgado, and he gets an extra nudge for 3B eligibility. I fall into the '1B is not as deep as you think camp' so it was mostly a piece of mind pick. Considering I was able to pick up Lee in the 9th (just couldn't pass on him there) I clearly could of waited. I guess I agree with you after all.
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Re: Experts Invitational ... Help pick apart our draft!

Postby dave knight » Mon Apr 06, 2009 2:18 pm

Magnus_CA wrote:Cat Whisperer here...

DK - interesting you thought Huff was my worst pick. My guess is that you don't believe he will repeat his 2008 numbers and/or you value him over other 1B's that were still available at that point.

I was hoping Atkins or Votto would be available in the 7th but both got taken in the 6th. I favor Huff over Lee, Pena, and Delgado, and he gets an extra nudge for 3B eligibility. I fall into the '1B is not as deep as you think camp' so it was mostly a piece of mind pick. Considering I was able to pick up Lee in the 9th (just couldn't pass on him there) I clearly could of waited. I guess I agree with you after all.


I would have rather had Pena/Delgado there, as I see them as having a better shot at having another good season. But Delgado does have the risk of age against him. I think Pena's 2008 was closer to his minimum than maximum and that he can rebound with a better average and around 35 home runs. But really, it wasn't too bad for your situation with a lot of the 1Bs eaten up. On a first base note, it's interesting that Loney/Jackson almost always go well ahead of Adam LaRoche (in this case undrafted) but I can see how you think he won't get runs and RBI because of that awful lineup.
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Re: Experts Invitational ... Help pick apart our draft!

Postby NikkiSixx » Mon Apr 06, 2009 2:36 pm

dave knight wrote:NickkiSixx: Best picks: Gallardo, Adam Jones, Weeks. Worst picks: Jeter, Wood

Steib: Best: Cliff Lee, Etiher, Maybin. Worst: Vernon Wells, Conor Jackson

Vandelay: Best: Dunn, Danks, Ubaldo. Worst: Wainwright

Pickle: Best: Reynolds, Cueto, Hermida. Worst: Cano, Dice-K

What: Best: Motte, Blalock, Jurrjens. Worst: Alexei, Kazmir

Porfi's Best: Rivera, Milledge, EE. Worst: Figgins.

Omaha Best: Gordon, Meche, Wandy. Worst: Youkilis, Michael Young.

Gold Rush Best: JUpton, THome, Carpenter. Worst: V-Mart, Bradley.

Cat Best: Greinke, Lowe, Felipe Lopez. Worst: Huff

FBC Best: Randy Johnson, Beckett, Pena. Worst: Liriano, Jenks

Cords best: Nolasco, A-Rod, Bruce. Worst: Mauer, Myers

LA Best: Vazquez, Werth, Iannetta. Worst: Konerko.

A lot of these teams look very good and are balanced, such as the Dunn/Uggla squad and the L.A. team at the end, and the first team.

I dont think Jeter in round 9 is bad, considering the .300 average and 100 runs he should have this season, Im not that bothered since he plays shortstop. I know his power/speed are declining, but I drafted him expecting .310, 115 runs, 60 RBI, 10 HR, 10 SB...he might even run a little more since he is the lead off man.


As for Kerry Wood, I dont see what you can dislike about him other than the injury risk.
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Re: Experts Invitational ... Help pick apart our draft!

Postby jake_twothousandfive » Mon Apr 06, 2009 3:37 pm

Team Vandelay Industries here:

I'm somewhat surprised that you'd consider Danks on of my best picks and Wainwright my worst. I drafted hitters even more heavily in the early rounds than I usually do. I typically draft an ace capable of carrying my team should the rest of my pitchers begin to struggle. Because of the way the draft played out, I never did get that ace, and therefore in the middle rounds I considered it essential that I found some quality pitchers with decent upside and limited downside.

That said, Wainwright is IMO was one of the more trustworthy options at that point and someone I expect a good year from. I got him right around his MDP so while I don't consider it great value, I thought it was fair. As for Danks and Slowey, I thought I reached on both a bit but I don't regret doing it. Both will have to do well for me to have success in this league.

In terms of overall value:
Best: Uggla, Damon, Ubaldo, and Josh Johnson
Worst: McCann (really hate taking a catcher that early, but there was just nothing else I liked), Danks, and Slowey (felt I reached on both Slowey and Danks, but I needed them at that point)
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Re: Experts Invitational ... Help pick apart our draft!

Postby dave knight » Mon Apr 06, 2009 4:26 pm

I dont think Jeter in round 9 is bad, considering the .300 average and 100 runs he should have this season, Im not that bothered since he plays shortstop. I know his power/speed are declining, but I drafted him expecting .310, 115 runs, 60 RBI, 10 HR, 10 SB...he might even run a little more since he is the lead off man.


After Jeter's 5 category decline each of the last 2 years, either you think he'll continue that trend, or he will get some of that '06 magic back. I'm in the first group. And I agree about Wood's injury concerns, and I'm not forgiving him after 1 year.

Team Vandelay Industries here:

I'm somewhat surprised that you'd consider Danks on of my best picks and Wainwright my worst. I drafted hitters even more heavily in the early rounds than I usually do. I typically draft an ace capable of carrying my team should the rest of my pitchers begin to struggle. Because of the way the draft played out, I never did get that ace, and therefore in the middle rounds I considered it essential that I found some quality pitchers with decent upside and limited downside.

That said, Wainwright is IMO was one of the more trustworthy options at that point and someone I expect a good year from. I got him right around his MDP so while I don't consider it great value, I thought it was fair. As for Danks and Slowey, I thought I reached on both a bit but I don't regret doing it. Both will have to do well for me to have success in this league.

In terms of overall value:
Best: Uggla, Damon, Ubaldo, and Josh Johnson
Worst: McCann (really hate taking a catcher that early, but there was just nothing else I liked), Danks, and Slowey (felt I reached on both Slowey and Danks, but I needed them at that point)


You got caught in a bad situation with the pitching. Starting in the 110s, a bunch of high-quality pitchers started flying off the board. Vazquez, Nolasco, Greinke, Burnett, Joba. So you decided to go with Wainwright, who is at least a notch below those guys. There are injury concerns plus he doesn't strike many out. Neither of those are true for Danks, so I'd give him the edge there. I agree with the rest of your "best" list and that the big catchers are overrated. I'm mostly targeting Iannetta/Sandoval/Doumit this year who could match the Big 4.
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Re: Experts Invitational ... Help pick apart our draft!

Postby NikkiSixx » Mon Apr 06, 2009 6:32 pm

dave knight wrote:
I dont think Jeter in round 9 is bad, considering the .300 average and 100 runs he should have this season, Im not that bothered since he plays shortstop. I know his power/speed are declining, but I drafted him expecting .310, 115 runs, 60 RBI, 10 HR, 10 SB...he might even run a little more since he is the lead off man.


After Jeter's 5 category decline each of the last 2 years, either you think he'll continue that trend, or he will get some of that '06 magic back. I'm in the first group. And I agree about Wood's injury concerns, and I'm not forgiving him after 1 year.

Team Vandelay Industries here:

I'm somewhat surprised that you'd consider Danks on of my best picks and Wainwright my worst. I drafted hitters even more heavily in the early rounds than I usually do. I typically draft an ace capable of carrying my team should the rest of my pitchers begin to struggle. Because of the way the draft played out, I never did get that ace, and therefore in the middle rounds I considered it essential that I found some quality pitchers with decent upside and limited downside.

That said, Wainwright is IMO was one of the more trustworthy options at that point and someone I expect a good year from. I got him right around his MDP so while I don't consider it great value, I thought it was fair. As for Danks and Slowey, I thought I reached on both a bit but I don't regret doing it. Both will have to do well for me to have success in this league.

In terms of overall value:
Best: Uggla, Damon, Ubaldo, and Josh Johnson
Worst: McCann (really hate taking a catcher that early, but there was just nothing else I liked), Danks, and Slowey (felt I reached on both Slowey and Danks, but I needed them at that point)


You got caught in a bad situation with the pitching. Starting in the 110s, a bunch of high-quality pitchers started flying off the board. Vazquez, Nolasco, Greinke, Burnett, Joba. So you decided to go with Wainwright, who is at least a notch below those guys. There are injury concerns plus he doesn't strike many out. Neither of those are true for Danks, so I'd give him the edge there. I agree with the rest of your "best" list and that the big catchers are overrated. I'm mostly targeting Iannetta/Sandoval/Doumit this year who could match the Big 4.

Im not saying he will be as good as he was in 06, and my projections do have him with less HR, SB, and RBI than the year before, I just think he will get on base and continue hitting around his career avg., and he will score runs with damon, tex, and matsui hitting after him (not to mention A ROD will be back in a few weeks). so his average will be nice and he will score a lot of runs, and MAYBE he will steal a few more bases since he is their leadoff man now. Im in between your "group 1" and "group 2."
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Re: Experts Invitational ... Help pick apart our draft!

Postby Omaha Red Sox » Mon Apr 06, 2009 8:12 pm

Thanks for taking the time to break this down with us dave knight. Now, let me defend my worst picks. :-D

dave knight wrote:Omaha Best: Gordon, Meche, Wandy. Worst: Youkilis, Michael Young.


I'd like for you to elaborate on the Youk pick at 42. It was mid 4th round and I thought that was about where he was being taken. I liked his position flexibility between first and third which enabled me to take Votto and Gordon later and have all three contribute.

Young was a pick made because I ran out of time on the clock. I do think I got some value where I got him at though, for what it's worth.

Porfi's stole AGonzo right before my pick in the 5th and Gold Rush swiped up Stephen Drew right before my pick in the 8th. Those were 2 picks I was hoping for.
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Re: Experts Invitational ... Help pick apart our draft!

Postby dave knight » Mon Apr 06, 2009 10:02 pm

Omaha Red Sox wrote:Thanks for taking the time to break this down with us dave knight. Now, let me defend my worst picks. :-D

dave knight wrote:Omaha Best: Gordon, Meche, Wandy. Worst: Youkilis, Michael Young.


I'd like for you to elaborate on the Youk pick at 42. It was mid 4th round and I thought that was about where he was being taken. I liked his position flexibility between first and third which enabled me to take Votto and Gordon later and have all three contribute.

Young was a pick made because I ran out of time on the clock. I do think I got some value where I got him at though, for what it's worth.

Porfi's stole AGonzo right before my pick in the 5th and Gold Rush swiped up Stephen Drew right before my pick in the 8th. Those were 2 picks I was hoping for.


I know Youkilis is going middle 4 in most drafts, I just don't like him there. Before last year's unexpected spike, he was doing a good Conor Jackson impersonation. Also, he hit a ton of "Just Enough" home runs that didn't clear the fence by that much, so he's not one of these raw power players that will hit close to 30 each year (http://hittrackeronline.com/homeruns_sp ... AL&type=JE). Overall I'd rather have Gonzalez, Atkins, probably Davis, probably Votto. I like him, but not in the top 50.

Michael Young has been saved by his teammates driving him in a lot, but it remains to be seen if he will stay as lucky. What we do know is his batting ratios have went in the cellar, including slugging and batting averages. If he can drive the ball a bit more than maybe he outplays last year.

One player I removed from my "Worst" list is Alexei Ramirez. He's respectable enough as a shortstop, even though I like other players like drew and hardy a bit better. I still think the value is a bit inflated still though.
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