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Anyone else taking a chance on Loaiza?

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Postby LBJackal » Thu Mar 11, 2004 4:30 pm

The more Loaiza hating the better. I like getting him cheap in drafts. He was awesome minus a few weeks in September. It could have been because he hadn't even thrown 200 IP in his career until last year. If that was the reason for his 2 week slump in September, he should be fine for the other 23 weeks. If it did turn out to be a fluke season (I find it hard to believe that an entire season is a fluke when there is public knowledge of why he was successful) then that would be a worse problem, although the chances of him being even close to as bad as he was before are slim to none.

I'll take my chances on a 21 game winner who led the league in K's and had a 2.90 ERA.
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Postby TheRawDAWG » Thu Mar 11, 2004 4:35 pm

LBJackal wrote:The more Loaiza hating the better. I like getting him cheap in drafts. He was awesome minus a few weeks in September. It could have been because he hadn't even thrown 200 IP in his career until last year. If that was the reason for his 2 week slump in September, he should be fine for the other 23 weeks. If it did turn out to be a fluke season (I find it hard to believe that an entire season is a fluke when there is public knowledge of why he was successful) then that would be a worse problem, although the chances of him being even close to as bad as he was before are slim to none.

I'll take my chances on a 21 game winner who led the league in K's and had a 2.90 ERA.


You take your chances. And I hope everyone that I play with drafts him where the 21 game winners and league leaders in Ks go. In the first 3-4 rounds. Cause you will be sadly disappointed. I don't think he'll hit his lows of before last year but to rate him as a 21 w, 200+ K and 2.90 ERA, would be a mistake. I think he'll be closer to in between those numbers which would make him a mid round pick. And like I said before I'll take him in the mid rounds. But no way in hell I'm going to draft him with the likes of Schilling, Pedro, Wood and Halladay.
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Postby Dr.DooM » Thu Mar 11, 2004 4:36 pm

I just want to say that there was a method behind my madness in picking Laoiza over Zito and Mulder. The reason why he was so good in 2003 was because he added the cut fastball and improved his velocity from the low to mid 90's. That's pretty significant and this is why it was easier for me to overlook his prior record. The cutter is a special pitch because it doesn't really matter if the batter knows it's coming. Anyone who bats against Pettite or Rivera knows the cutter is coming but the pitch is so damn good that it still strikes them out. The cutter and splitter are probabaly the two hardest pitches to hit.

There is another pitcher who improved markedly with certain adjustments: Roy Halladay changed his delivery to 3/4, which resulted in some lateral movement on his fastball. Now he didn't improve to the same degree that Loaiza did but the principle was the same for me.

On the other hand, Zito and Mulder's numbers have been declining somewhat. They're still very good pitchers but the Oakland offense is not as strong as before. These two factors made me more hesitant to pick them early. Nevertheless it was still a close decision and if any mistake was made, it was probably that I should have waited another round or two. However, I knew for a fact that someone else was going to draft him in round 6 before my turn.
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Postby Guest » Thu Mar 11, 2004 4:37 pm

TheRawDAWG wrote:
LBJackal wrote:The more Loaiza hating the better. I like getting him cheap in drafts. He was awesome minus a few weeks in September. It could have been because he hadn't even thrown 200 IP in his career until last year. If that was the reason for his 2 week slump in September, he should be fine for the other 23 weeks. If it did turn out to be a fluke season (I find it hard to believe that an entire season is a fluke when there is public knowledge of why he was successful) then that would be a worse problem, although the chances of him being even close to as bad as he was before are slim to none.

I'll take my chances on a 21 game winner who led the league in K's and had a 2.90 ERA.


You take your chances. And I hope everyone that I play with drafts him where the 21 game winners and league leaders in Ks go. In the first 3-4 rounds. Cause you will be sadly disappointed. I don't think he'll hit his lows of before last year but to rate him as a 21 w, 200+ K and 2.90 ERA, would be a mistake. I think he'll be closer to in between those numbers which would make him a mid round pick. And like I said before I'll take him in the mid rounds. But no way in hell I'm going to draft him with the likes of Schilling, Pedro, Wood and Halladay.


Of course not, but he's a nice pick after 80 or so.
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Postby shortsavage » Thu Mar 11, 2004 5:48 pm

Dr.DooM wrote:Zito and Mulder's numbers have been declining somewhat. They're still very good pitchers but the Oakland offense is not as strong as before. These two factors made me more hesitant to pick them early. Nevertheless it was still a close decision and if any mistake was made, it was probably that I should have waited another round or two. However, I knew for a fact that someone else was going to draft him in round 6 before my turn.


I'll give you Zito, but Mulder was a Cy-Young candidate until he got injured last season. He may be a bit of an injury risk in 2004, but I do not recall his numbers declining.

In addition with Mulder's starts, the A's only needed a run or two in order to give him a chance to win. He could be a 15 game winner with the Tigers. Balancing in the way he can take over a game, a weaker Oakland offense should not take too much away from his value.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Mar 11, 2004 8:06 pm

TheRawDAWG wrote:
LBJackal wrote:The more Loaiza hating the better. I like getting him cheap in drafts. He was awesome minus a few weeks in September. It could have been because he hadn't even thrown 200 IP in his career until last year. If that was the reason for his 2 week slump in September, he should be fine for the other 23 weeks. If it did turn out to be a fluke season (I find it hard to believe that an entire season is a fluke when there is public knowledge of why he was successful) then that would be a worse problem, although the chances of him being even close to as bad as he was before are slim to none.

I'll take my chances on a 21 game winner who led the league in K's and had a 2.90 ERA.


You take your chances. And I hope everyone that I play with drafts him where the 21 game winners and league leaders in Ks go. In the first 3-4 rounds. Cause you will be sadly disappointed. I don't think he'll hit his lows of before last year but to rate him as a 21 w, 200+ K and 2.90 ERA, would be a mistake. I think he'll be closer to in between those numbers which would make him a mid round pick. And like I said before I'll take him in the mid rounds. But no way in hell I'm going to draft him with the likes of Schilling, Pedro, Wood and Halladay.


I got him in the 11th round. That isn't exactly amongst the 20 game winners. It's amongst the 12 game winners with bad ERAs. I in now way said he'd repeat last year. It's a sign that he's better than he showed prior to last year. A guy who was 2nd in the league in wins, 1st in K's, 6th in WHIP, and 3rd in ERA is well worth the last pick of the 11th round.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Thu Mar 11, 2004 10:53 pm

I just stuck this in the other, shorter thread but if he was a hitter, everyone would assume that he was on steroids based on the ridiculous jump in his numbers last year.

If he even splits the difference between his lifetime stats and his stats last year, he'll be a good pitcher though.

Too many question marks though, both for him AND for the Sox this year. I kind of liked watching what I saw of Loaiza last year, as a personal thing. Not really what I look for in a fantasy pitcher though. I usually end up drifting towards younger guys as I feel that they are less risk for injuries and pitchers seemed to be harder to pick up on waivers than hitters last year.
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Postby TheRawDAWG » Thu Mar 11, 2004 11:49 pm

I got him in the 11th round. That isn't exactly amongst the 20 game winners. It's amongst the 12 game winners with bad ERAs. I in now way said he'd repeat last year. It's a sign that he's better than he showed prior to last year. A guy who was 2nd in the league in wins, 1st in K's, 6th in WHIP, and 3rd in ERA is well worth the last pick of the 11th round.


I agree 100%. But to draft him with the other pitchers that put up the numbers he did last year would be a mistake. 11th round is a steal. 5th round ahead of Mulder and Zito is questionable at best.
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Postby Madison » Fri Mar 12, 2004 1:23 am

I was going to stay out of this thread except for my one little post but I keep reading September this and September that. How about his second half?

Pre All Star---2.21 era
Post All Star--3.84 era

Just something to keep in mind........

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