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Anyone else taking a chance on Loaiza?

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Postby Madison » Thu Mar 11, 2004 12:16 pm

chicksdigdalongball wrote:FACT: Loaiza added a split finger pitch to his ammo last year and nailed 20 wins and over 200K


It was a cut fastball, not a splitter. ;-)


I won't be drafting him this year. 4+ era and 12 wins. Not worth a spot on my team.
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Postby EugeneStyles » Thu Mar 11, 2004 12:23 pm

Between 10th and 12th round is a good place to get him. One good season in an otherwise mediocre career is not a good reason for taking him in the 5th round. On the other hand, any pitcher that is good enough to get 20 wins with a team that struggled offensively for most of the season is definitely worth drafting. The chances of him getting 20 wins are low, but the chances of him getting 10 wins are probably equally low.

I wanted to draft him in my yahoo league, but he went in the 6th round, way too early.
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Postby Guest » Thu Mar 11, 2004 12:24 pm

I woulda taken Zito or Mulder over Loaiza because they are safer picks. Loaiza IMO is a #3 starter at best heading into the season.....if he performs near last years' level, you got yourself a bargain.

Just like you can't dismiss what he did last year, you can't dismiss the previous 8 seasons where he only once had an ERA under 4.50 and WHIP under 1.399.

Sportsline has a projection of 3.608 ERA, 1.267 WHIP 17 Wins. That's a nice projection IMO. Making him a nice middle of the staff option.
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Postby Guest » Thu Mar 11, 2004 12:26 pm

His 200+ strikeouts last year was encouraging and shows me that his 20 wins wasn't necessarily a fluke. Had he won 20 and kept the same strikeout ratio as his previous seasons, I'd agree there's nothing to see here. But he appeared to be a totally different pitcher.
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Postby TheRawDAWG » Thu Mar 11, 2004 12:27 pm

chicksdigdalongball wrote:I think that was a great pick.

FACT: Oakland has lost some pop and their pitching staff will not get thw W's they deserve

FACT: Loaiza added a split finger pitch to his ammo last year and nailed 20 wins and over 200K

FACT: Nailing 200K's means hitters were having a load of trouble hitting his stuff.

Assuming no injuries, IMO Loaiza will shine again and out perform Mulder and probably Zito. All bets are off when bringing Hudson into the picture, but it could happen.


Fact: Madison is right it was a cut fastball

Fact: Loaiza has a career ERA around 5

Fact: once teams started figuring him out last year and having video of his cutter and when he used it he started getting hit. September wasn't kind to him.

Fact: Oakland's Mulder and Zito have had good numbers since they've been in the league.

Fact: Mulder and Zito are better than Loaiza.


So I'd say Loaiza in the 5th is way too high with guys like Zito and Mulder on the board. Loaiza in the 11th is a very good pick cause who knows. Maybe it wasn't a fluke. But I'd go with the safer bet in Zito and Mulder.
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Postby Guest » Thu Mar 11, 2004 12:57 pm

The first half of September wasn't kind. He was pretty good the second hald and his last start of the year was outstanding. His strikeout rate remained the same throughout Septemeber.
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Postby TheRawDAWG » Thu Mar 11, 2004 1:25 pm

Loaiza's Sept. stats:

ERA: 5.30

WHIP: 1.35

Those are much more Loaiza like. Plus, he started to walk more batters as well. His K rate was still good but his control was off and once teams realize that he's back to being the old unreliable Loaiza they will start to lay off and those Ks will turn into more BBs. IMO.
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Postby Guest » Thu Mar 11, 2004 1:37 pm

ERA first 3 starts in Sept. - 8.00
ERA second 3 starts in Sept. - 3.30

He had a rough couple starts, particularly one but then settled down nicely and had a fantastic last game of the year.
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Postby red » Thu Mar 11, 2004 4:24 pm

If you read the whole thread, you get an idea of how this guy should go. Yes, he's generally overvalued on behalf of last season. In some leagues he'll go too high; don't get him there, in front of Hudson, Zito, etc. At best, at very best, he's AS GOOD as those guys, so why not go with the more proven guys? But, if he falls-- would I take a shot with him instead of, say, Carl Pavano? or Ben Sheets? Sure!
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Postby TheRawDAWG » Thu Mar 11, 2004 4:26 pm

red wrote:If you read the whole thread, you get an idea of how this guy should go. Yes, he's generally overvalued on behalf of last season. In some leagues he'll go too high; don't get him there, in front of Hudson, Zito, etc. At best, at very best, he's AS GOOD as those guys, so why not go with the more proven guys? But, if he falls-- would I take a shot with him instead of, say, Carl Pavano? or Ben Sheets? Sure!


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