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huff or palmeiro or thomas

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Postby FantasySteve » Thu Mar 11, 2004 1:14 pm

The choice is Huff.


Those of you saying Palmeiro = Spezio are WAY WAY off.

Even if he declines to 30 homers and 90 RBI's, if you can get that in round 15 or so you have done yourself a major favor and you probably won't regret it. Those are significant drop-offs from his previous numbers.

I know the park and being 40 will have some effect, but to be Spezio-like he would have to drop off 18-20 homers from last year when he was 39 and that is not happening without a major injury, which has yet to happen to this guy in his career. Remember that Palmeiro has played in Baltimore for a number of years and knows exactly what he is getting into, he chose to go back there and play. I think he will be fine, and wouldn't be a horrible backup to a good starter at first in your fantasy league.
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Postby NZF » Thu Mar 11, 2004 1:35 pm

Lofunzo wrote:
And when Palmeiro towers over those 2 this year, remember where you heard that first. ;-)


That's the difference between you and me Lofunzo. You aren't the first to say it. You keep regurgatating the same stuff I hear from 90% of others.

Once again another example of traditional thinking at its worst. Just because he has 10 straight seasons of 100 RBI and 37 HR's doesn't mean he will automatically do so again. Look outside the square man. He is a HR hitter, that is what he does best. No disputing that. However those HR's have dropped off by over 20% the last two seasons. Now he is moving to a park that is far harder to hit in they WILL drop off even more.

I would be very suprised if he hit 30 HR's this season. Even if he did manage 30 (25 tops for me), with a .240 average and 80 RBI's he is at best only the 15th - 20th ranked 1B. That equates to a late round pick and no way near where he is going in drafts.

Getting back to the original question, with those numbers I predict for him 25 HR's a .240 average 80 RBI's and 70 Runs with obviously no steals, he is only 25% of Huff and 50% of Thomas.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Mar 11, 2004 1:45 pm

just a quick question here - could someone please post the park ratings between TEX and BAL. I keep hearing Tex is a better hitters park, and would like to see the numbers to substantiate that claim.
Thanks
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Postby TheRawDAWG » Thu Mar 11, 2004 1:57 pm

New Zealand Fan wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:
And when Palmeiro towers over those 2 this year, remember where you heard that first. ;-)


That's the difference between you and me Lofunzo. You aren't the first to say it. You keep regurgatating the same stuff I hear from 90% of others.

Once again another example of traditional thinking at its worst. Just because he has 10 straight seasons of 100 RBI and 37 HR's doesn't mean he will automatically do so again. Look outside the square man. He is a HR hitter, that is what he does best. No disputing that. However those HR's have dropped off by over 20% the last two seasons. Now he is moving to a park that is far harder to hit in they WILL drop off even more.

I would be very suprised if he hit 30 HR's this season. Even if he did manage 30 (25 tops for me), with a .240 average and 80 RBI's he is at best only the 15th - 20th ranked 1B. That equates to a late round pick and no way near where he is going in drafts.

Getting back to the original question, with those numbers I predict for him 25 HR's a .240 average 80 RBI's and 70 Runs with obviously no steals, he is only 25% of Huff and 50% of Thomas.



ummm, I think he's saying the same stuff as 90% of others because it makes the most sense. For Palmiero to drop to 25 homers and 80 RBIs seems a little extreme. He hit the same amount of numbers last year that he's been doing his whole career. How do you say he's in MAJOR decline? Just cause of his age? Because he moved to Baltimore? I believe he's played and put up some pretty good numbers in Baltimore too. And if I'm not mistaken Baltimore is a hitters park as well. I remember everyone saying how well Vlad would do in Baltimore when all the rumours said he was going there. But what ever. I hope everyone thinks like you and I can pick up Raffy in the 15th round and have a very good back up 1b.

By the way, Huff, Thomas, Raffy.
Barry Bonds for US president.
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Postby pilambp » Thu Mar 11, 2004 1:57 pm

Huff > Thomas > Palmiero.

But that's been said.

What everyone has been missing so far is the effect of Viagra on Palmiero's stats this season. The repeated effects of the drug are obvoiously taking their toll on his batting average.
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Postby NZF » Thu Mar 11, 2004 1:58 pm

FantasySteve wrote:
Those of you saying Palmeiro = Spezio are WAY WAY off.

Even if he declines to 30 homers and 90 RBI's, if you can get that in round 15 or so you have done yourself a major favor and you probably won't regret it. Those are significant drop-offs from his previous numbers.



Palmeiro put up identical avg. / Slg / OPS numbers away from home last season to that of Helms and Spiezio over the season. I was using that as an example as to what you could expect from him hitting away from Texas all year.

Palmeiro is going no where near as late as Round 15. In the 4 drafts I have been involved in (2 with other cafe members) he has always been gone by Round 10. Way, way, way to early with the numbers he will put up this year.
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Postby NZF » Thu Mar 11, 2004 2:15 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:just a quick question here - could someone please post the park ratings between TEX and BAL. I keep hearing Tex is a better hitters park, and would like to see the numbers to substantiate that claim.
Thanks


I have got the stats for 2002 when they changed Camden Yards dimensions. Over that season the % difference effect on runs was 23%. Texas was given a +11% rating effect on runs and Baltimore a -12%.

Baltimore was 4th worst rated ahead of LA, San Fran and Seattle.

Texas was 5th best rated behind Colorado (a whopping 50%), Kansas (who changed last year), Houston and Arizona.
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Postby NZF » Thu Mar 11, 2004 2:54 pm

TheRawDAWG wrote:

ummm, I think he's saying the same stuff as 90% of others because it makes the most sense.
How do you say he's in MAJOR decline?
And if I'm not mistaken Baltimore is a hitters park as well.ere. But what ever. I hope everyone thinks like you and I can pick up Raffy in the 15th round and have a very good back up 1b.



You didn't give this post a lot of thought did you?

If 90% of people are saying the same thing and it makes the most sense then how the hell can you hope that everyone thinks like me and you can draft Raffy!!!

Secondly I never once used the words MAJOR decline but if you took the time to have a look at his HR avg. OPS and Slg stats the last 3 years you will realise there has been significant decline.

Thirdly you are badly mistaken. Baltimore is far from a hitters park anymore. In fact it was the fourth worst hitters park in 2002.

Lastly, if I could get Raffy in Round 15 in drafts I would consider him as an adequate backup as well but I can't and I doubt if you can either. If you can then perhaps a few more people do indeed think like me.
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Postby FantasySteve » Thu Mar 11, 2004 2:55 pm

NZF,

I am sorry, but the stats you quote don't even come close to telling to whole fantasy story. Even if he did match Spezio in those categories I am confident he hit more homers, drove in more runs and probably scored more at the same time. They are not equivalent. If he drops to 25 homers that is a 26% reduction over last year. That is quite a huge drop off for a guy that has been EXTREMELY consistent in his power and rbi numbers for an entire decade now and is going to a team with a pretty good lineup around him. Your arguement just doesn't pan out for me. You take Spezio for a season and I will take Palmeiro, head to head who do you really think is going to win?

People might be drafting him too early, but uninformed or hopeful drafters do that with lots of real MLB players and for my money there are a lot of bigger risks out there than Rafael Palmeiro. Drafting him too soon does not mean he will instantly become a horrible real-life player.
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Postby Lofunzo » Thu Mar 11, 2004 3:05 pm

New Zealand Fan wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:
And when Palmeiro towers over those 2 this year, remember where you heard that first. ;-)


That's the difference between you and me Lofunzo. You aren't the first to say it. You keep regurgatating the same stuff I hear from 90% of others.

Once again another example of traditional thinking at its worst. Just because he has 10 straight seasons of 100 RBI and 37 HR's doesn't mean he will automatically do so again. Look outside the square man. He is a HR hitter, that is what he does best. No disputing that. However those HR's have dropped off by over 20% the last two seasons. Now he is moving to a park that is far harder to hit in they WILL drop off even more.

I would be very suprised if he hit 30 HR's this season. Even if he did manage 30 (25 tops for me), with a .240 average and 80 RBI's he is at best only the 15th - 20th ranked 1B. That equates to a late round pick and no way near where he is going in drafts.

Getting back to the original question, with those numbers I predict for him 25 HR's a .240 average 80 RBI's and 70 Runs with obviously no steals, he is only 25% of Huff and 50% of Thomas.


Dude.......What's your beef?? I am not recycling what everyone else says. That is my opinion. Whether it lines up with what everyone else says is immaterial to me. I don't care. Just because I'm not the first to say it?? That is retarded. So if any 2 people agree on something, then it should be discarded?? 8-o

I agree with you that I would rank them Huff, Thomas, and Palmeiro. Does that mean that it should be discarded since we agree?? ;-)

You never told me what's wrong with having 5 TV's in my basement.

P.S. Bonds HR's have dropped by 38% over the last 2 years and he's 2 months older than Palmeiro. It's time for him to retire as well, right??
Last edited by Lofunzo on Thu Mar 11, 2004 3:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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