Unless you didn't believe Hamilton's hype from a decade ago (which he's since outplayed) and that a relapse into drugs is a major concern, I'd call Hamilton 5x more of a 'sure thing' for 2009 and beyond than Quentin. Night and Day.
Quentin - .288/36HR/100RBI/96R/7SB (130 GP - 480 AB)
Hamilton - .304/32HR/130RBI/98R/9SB (156 GP - 624 AB)
I'm not sure what I'm missing here. Quentin played 26 less games and had 144 less ABs. Are we expecting him to physically fall apart this year? What's the likelihood on that? I'm not arguing that Hamilton isn't a phenomenal player. He's a brilliant one with a tremendous (come)back story. But look at the lines. Like I said, I'm not sure what I'm missing here. Hamilton may be a "sure thing", but certainly not 5x better, Night and Day better than Quentin.