Hamilton Quentin Trade - In the Ballpark?

[jmcampbe11]

Is this a realistic trade offer (I'm thinking of offering it?) or do I need to sweeten the pot a bit? I'm a little nervous about having to play both Reynolds and Dukes and this would get ride of one of the question marks. The downside is this is a modified keeper, in that we carry over three players each year (i.e., Hamilton would be one of my keepers).

GIVE -J.Hamilton and Mark Reynolds
GET - Carlos Quentin and Aramis Ramirez

MY TEAM (10 Team Roto Modified Keeper League. We carry over three players each season)
C-Martin 1b-Gonzalez 2b-Phillips ss-O.Cabrera 3b-Longoria CI-Reynolds MI-Alx.Ramirez OF-Sizemore, Hamilton, Dye, Wells, Miledge UTIL-Dukes
bench-Getz
SP-Gallardo, Greinke, Nolasco, Lilly, R.Johnson
RP-Broxton, Qualls, Percival, Morrow, R.Soriano

[dave knight]

That's good enough for me, since Quentin and Hamilton have only done it once, and A-Ram is established and way ahead of Mark "Just Enough" Reynolds.

[briane]

I think it is a fair offer, but, let's be honest- Hamilton has done it one and a half times. Yes, both times were against pitchers who hadn't seen him before that year (it makes me a little worried about this year, but not much). Especially since he only did it for half a season in the NL, and then half a season dominant in the AL.

[jmcampbe11]

Thanks fellas. Anyone else?

[mak1277]

I think it's a fair offer, and I prefer the side you're getting. All depends on how much your trade partner values Hamilton.

[jmcampbe11]

....should I have any concerns about trading my 2nd round draft pick (Hamilton) in a league where we keep 3 players each season? For context my first three picks were Sizemore, Hamilton, and Longoria. If I make this trade my keeper candidates would be Sizemore, Longoria and - Quentin, A.Ramirez, A.Gonzalez, Alx. Ramirez, Phillips, or Gallardo.

[Amazinz]

It's in the ballpark but not likely to be accepted IMHO. The upgrade between Quentin and Hamilton is small compared to the drop off from Aram to Reynolds. From your perspective, if the trade was accepted, I would have no concerns at all.

[TheGuru22]

You have plenty of keeper prospects so this trade would work out well for you, but I agree with the prior poster that unless the guy you are offering to really loves Hamilton, it is likely to be turned down. Doesn't hurt in offering it as it isn't totally off base, but just don't be surprised if he wants you to sweeten the pot.

[rplantz]

If you were proposing this trade to me, I probably wouldn't take it.

As it's been posted before, the upside on Hamilton needs to really outweigh Quentin... and it doesn't. I'm expecting Quentin to have a really great 09, as are (I think) many more people. So yes, Hamilton is better than Quentin, but the Reynolds - Ramirez exchange is ridiculously lopsided. Reynolds had a couple great months last year, but as 08 went on, he became a disaster. Ramirez is consistently solid.

But if the dude loves Hamilton, maybe he'll take it and you'll have some better players for it:)

[jswede]

regarding this whole "done it once" thing, and "up-sides"...

Hamilton was a #1 pick and one of the most highly touted in the last 20+ years at that - then he threw his life away with something non-baseball related which he's since kicked. He has come through and then some on those #1 pick promises from a decade ago for the 2+ seasons since he's been clean. Consider that after years of drug abuse and not playing baseball AT ALL, it took him all of **90 ABs** in the minors before he went .290/50/20/50 in a half season with Cincy, only to follow that with his ridiculous last season. That's unheard of - no one ever has done anything like that.

Quentin was a promising, but not a stand-out, player coming up and missed his first year as a 20yr old due to injury and was shut down late 2007 for major shoulder surgery. He's been in the system for 5+ years and I'd agree he's "done it once". Take a look at his call-up seasons with AZ in 06 and 07 -- nothing better than decent.

Unless you didn't believe Hamilton's hype from a decade ago (which he's since outplayed) and that a relapse into drugs is a major concern, I'd call Hamilton 5x more of a 'sure thing' for 2009 and beyond than Quentin. Night and Day.