Adding a team after Draft order is chosen

[tiggis]

12 team league.

Draft order is drawn.

Another teams wants to join so the Commish puts 12 numbers in a hat.. draws one and puts them in that place and moves everyone else down.


I believe that the draft order needs to be redone, because even though the new player's number drawn is a fair independent trial.. the outcome is not fair and independent for the other teams.

Here is my post....


You have pick 4.

12 numbers are put in a bag.

How many numbers drawn from the bag can give you a lesser draft position?

4 of the 12 possible outcomes will cause you to lose value


If a 1 is drawn you drop to 5 (-1 draft space)
If a 2 is drawn you drop to 5 (-1 draft space)
If a 3 is drawn you drop to 5 (-1 draft space)
if a 4 is drawn you drop to 5 (-1 draft space)

If a 5 or greater is drawn it has no effect on you so the propability of number being drawn out of the hat that can cause you to lose value is 4 out of 12.

There is a 33% of a drawn number moving you down a spot in draft order.
Surely that part makes sense......



How many numbers drawn from the bag can give me a lesser draft position?

11 of the 12 possible outcomes will cause me to lose value


If a 1 is drawn I drop to 13
If a 2 is drawn I drop to 13
If a 3 is drawn I drop to 13
if a 4 is drawn I drop to 13
If a 5 is drawn I drop to 13
If a 6 is drawn I drop to 13
If a 7 is drawn I drop to 13
if a 8 is drawn I drop to 13
If a 9 is drawn I drop to 13
If a 10 is drawn I drop to 13
If a 11 is drawn I drop to 13


If a 12 or greater is drawn it has no effect on me so the propability of number being drawn out of the hat that can cause me to lose value is 11 out of 12.

There is a 91% of a drawn number moving me down a spot in draft order.
Thoughs?

[RDD15]

I think that the way that it was done is very fair. The 33% and 91% chances of losing draft position are simply a reward to those that have higher picks.

While I am unsure of how to explain the fact that this method is fair, this method of assigning a draft pick to a new team is indeed just fine.

To me, this sounds like the person with a later pick in the first round that wants the draft order redone under the guise of this new team mucking things up, but they really just want to have the chance to move up in the draft.

[Carnac]

The difference between 1 spot in the draft is miniscule. Seems like the fairest way to approach it. Shouldn't matter anyway, because you are a southern girl and you can kick my butt in FBB.

I'm sure you will do just fine!

good luck

[Matthias]

Are you doing a one round draft? Most leagues are generally deeper than that.

Because if you're drafting up to 2, or maybe even 3, or more players then your probabilities are wrong: it's a 100% chance that any team in the draft will get shifted down the draft order, it's just for some teams it will show up sooner than for others.

Let's compare people who pick 1st (Person A), 4th (B), and 11th (C).

A has picks 1, 24, and 25 in the first 3 rounds.
B has picks 4, 21, and 28 in the first 3 rounds.
C has picks 11, 14, and 35 in the first 3 rounds.

If New Person D falls into the 6th drafting spot, moving down C, but leaving A and B, their new drafting positions are:
A has picks 1, 26, and 27
B has picks 4, 23, and 30
C has picks 12, 15, and 37 in the first 3 rounds.

Over the first two rounds, every player, whether they're in position 1, 4, or 11, all lost 2 draft spots. It's just that Players A and B lost both of their draft spots in their second pick and Player C lost 1 spot each on his first and second pick.

So if you guys just draft one player each, then yah, you're right. On the off-chance that you go deeper, then you're kind of off-base and should just let it go.