I like James Shields best. Third-year pitchers tend to have a history of taking a good step forward and so, I'd say he still has room to improve.
At the end of the day, I wouldn't be surprised to see Felix and/or Liriano take a step up or to see Oswalt to produce like last year. Shields would be the one of the four I'd prefer to bank on as a #1 starter, if need be.
1. Oswalt - has shown top tier ability time and again even if Ks are a bit down 2. Felix - He's still at an age where he can take big steps forward, and the Mariners though bad for wins have put together an improved defense 3. Shields - He's good, but not an elite talent for fantasy 4. Liriano - Too much risk as the velocity was down last year, but could come back and join this tier of pitchers
It is pretty tough choice between the security of Shields and Oswalt as opposed to the potential of Felix and Liriano. Liriano has amazing potential, but I tend to lean toward safer picks. Between Shields and Oswalt, I think I would go with Oswalt.
Shields has some nasty home/road splits (1.04 WHIP, 2.59 ERA @ Home; 1.31WHIP, 4.82 ERA Away) while Oswalt has shown a little more consistency (1.21 WHIP, 3.73 ERA @ Home; 1.14 WHIP, 3.34 ERA Away). It may just be a personal preference, but I always go with consistency.
dave knight wrote:3. Shields - He's good, but not an elite talent for fantasy
I'm curious as to why you rank Oswalt first, but yet he and Shields had nearly identical lines for 2008. Oswalt had some nagging injuries whereas Shields as a changeup pitcher bodes well, as those types of pitchers tend not to build as much duress as power pitchers. I don't see Oswalt having much additional upside to how he performed in '08 as well. However marginal the difference Shields has in upside compared to Oswalt, I still think that's worth pursuing, especially beyond this year.
As for Shields' away splits, I think it's a bit harsh to judge him off of two coming-of-age years as to if his away splits will turn out to be awful. In '07, he still had a manageable 4.25 ERA on the road while improving markedly at home.
dave knight wrote:3. Shields - He's good, but not an elite talent for fantasy
I'm curious as to why you rank Oswalt first, but yet he and Shields had nearly identical lines for 2008. Oswalt had some nagging injuries whereas Shields as a changeup pitcher bodes well, as those types of pitchers tend not to build as much duress as power pitchers. I don't see Oswalt having much additional upside to how he performed in '08 as well. However marginal the difference Shields has in upside compared to Oswalt, I still think that's worth pursuing, especially beyond this year.
As for Shields' away splits, I think it's a bit harsh to judge him off of two coming-of-age years as to if his away splits will turn out to be awful. In '07, he still had a manageable 4.25 ERA on the road while improving markedly at home.
Before last year Oswalt averaged about a 3.0, and before last year Shields wasn't all that great. Factor in the NL Central vs. AL East, add the track record, and that is the difference.
i like them all as guys i target as my top 2 pitchers. shields and oswalt are safer. felix and liriano have more upside. it's close but i'd go shields, oswalt, liriano, then felix.
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by omaan256 » Fri Apr 03, 2009 10:09 pm 
