2009 Buy Low/Sell High Candidates

[The Artful Dodger]

Season's upon us, time to list some buy low/sell high candidates the whole year round. Have a go.

[The Artful Dodger]

I'll christen this thread with a few buy lows/sell highs, although it's a bit early for them:

Buy low:

Lastings Milledge - He has the tools for 15/30, but a sluggish Spring calls to mind his potential for inconsistency too. I'd try to play up the inconsistency part, I suppose.

Matt Cain - Some will look at a 6.04 ERA for the Spring and 10 walks in 28 1/3 innings as a harbinger that Cain's a fantasy tease. What I'd pay more attention to is he nearly averaged a K an inning. I still like him to improve this year.

Sell high:

Nelson Cruz - He's an ideal #3 OF, but I think some are overrating his potential. I'm going to say he's a .270, 25 HR hitter, very much the example of a sketchy average, high-contact power hitter. I'd try to shop him to squeeze a bit more off the wings of a strong Spring

[dave knight]

Sell high:

Justin Morneau. Setting aside the middling power for a 1B, there's the question of Mauer's health and the rest of the below-average lineup which will negatively affect his counting stats. He has around the same draft value as Quentin, Carlos Lee, and Manny, so he is one to shop for top-tier value.

Derek Jeter (and Michael Young). There's a lot of empty name value here. Find a suitor before the reality of less than 10 HR and less than 10 steals sinks in. Jeter's value is around superior players Joey Votto, Hunter Pence, and Chad Billingsley according to MDP.

Paul Maholm. Here's your spring training star: 1.52 ERA, only 4 earned runs in 23.2 IP. Don't remind your trading partner that Maholm won't attain double digit wins or a decent strikeout rate, or possibly even good ratios (see 2007).


Dodger, the Carribean Cruz could cruise to 20 SB as well. If you're knocked out by an offer then go for it, but watch out when dealing him.

More later.

[bigh0rt]

BJ Ryan looks like he could be a decent Buy Low right now, with people scrambling to pick up Blue Jay relievers left and right. He could be an extremely cheap source of Saves and ratios, healthy.

[footballisbetter.com]

Buy Low:

I also like Milledge as a buy low candidate. I really think he could be this years version of N Mclouth 2008.

A Ethier- Just look at his stats last season when Manny arrived. Kemp is going much earlier (and probably should be), but Ethier will help you in most categories.

E Dukes- He is somewhat risky, but you should be able to get him for next to nothing. He will have to stay out of trouble and get enough PT.

F Lopez- He is a nice buy low candidate as a MI. He will bat leadoff and play everyday this season. He needed to get out of Washington.

More to come later

[The Artful Dodger]

Justin Morneau. Setting aside the middling power for a 1B, there's the question of Mauer's health and the rest of the below-average lineup which will negatively affect his counting stats. He has around the same draft value as Quentin, Carlos Lee, and Manny, so he is one to shop for top-tier value.

Eh, if anything, Morneau's probably a guy I'd try to buy low on. Sure, his HR total declined the last two years, but he also had a big spike in doubles last year. I think that will correct a bit to 30 HR at least. Some might get suckered into his name value being perhaps the only thing making him a top 7 1B and a 3rd round value and are willing to trade him for more serviceable pieces.

Dodger, the Carribean Cruz could cruise to 20 SB as well. If you're knocked out by an offer then go for it, but watch out when dealing him.

Caribbean Cruz? That just doesn't sound cool.

I skimmed through one thread and at the extreme, one guy was offered Kemp for a package where Nelson Cruz was the best player on the other side. That's unlikely in most cases, but based off a hot Spring, if he's off to a scorching start, there's a good chance you can get a better return without sacrificing upside.

[Geek]

Buy low:

John Lackey. He should only miss a month, and will figures to have a better year than last. People are panicking and staying away. Plug in a hot pitcher for the first month and then bring Lackey off the DL.

Chris Young (OF) Arizona. People are seriously down on this guy, for whatever reason. In my Yahoo leagues, he's been going as late as pick#160 or #180.

Alex Gordon: See Chris Young.

Sell high:

Jason Motte. First time through the league, he's going to dominate. Eventually, hitters will adjust and Tony will lose patience. Or, maybe not. But you'll still be able to get a lot more for him than you paid.

Felix Hernandez. If you can find a manager who doesn't know what happens to him in the second half.

[dave knight]

Eh, if anything, Morneau's probably a guy I'd try to buy low on. Sure, his HR total declined the last two years, but he also had a big spike in doubles last year. I think that will correct a bit to 30 HR at least. Some might get suckered into his name value being perhaps the only thing making him a top 7 1B and a 3rd round value and are willing to trade him for more serviceable pieces.

I agree that Morneau's name value is the only thing making him a top 7 1B in drafts; Gonzalez is better despite that huge park, and Votto is probably better because of his home field. What worries me about Morneau is not just the power dip, but the fact that 9 of his 23 home runs were "Just Missed" HRs that barely cleared the fence. (source: http://hittrackeronline.com/homeruns_sp ... AL&type=JE)

Is there an injury to explain last year's decline that I'm not aware of? If not, I don't see how you can buy low on him.

[The Artful Dodger]

Eh, if anything, Morneau's probably a guy I'd try to buy low on. Sure, his HR total declined the last two years, but he also had a big spike in doubles last year. I think that will correct a bit to 30 HR at least. Some might get suckered into his name value being perhaps the only thing making him a top 7 1B and a 3rd round value and are willing to trade him for more serviceable pieces.

I agree that Morneau's name value is the only thing making him a top 7 1B in drafts; Gonzalez is better despite that huge park, and Votto is probably better because of his home field. What worries me about Morneau is not just the power dip, but the fact that 9 of his 23 home runs were "Just Missed" HRs that barely cleared the fence. (source: http://hittrackeronline.com/homeruns_sp ... AL&type=JE)

Is there an injury to explain last year's decline that I'm not aware of? If not, I don't see how you can buy low on him.

I think he had knee soreness in the second half last year. Participating in the HR derby didn't help matters either.

[tiggis]

Sell high:

Paul Maholm. Here's your spring training star: 1.52 ERA, only 4 earned runs in 23.2 IP. Don't remind your trading partner that Maholm won't attain double digit wins or a decent strikeout rate, or possibly even good ratios (see 2007).

I actually love Paul Maholm!!!

In the second half he had a 3.14ERA/1.20whip and though he only won 9 games he deserved to win 6 more.

He will give you 20 Quality Starts with about 200 Innings pitched.

10-12wins/3.80era/1.27whip/145ks

On any other team he is a 15 - 17 game winner.

I would call him a sleeper that not many people noticed, instead of a sell high.