Khalil Greene for 2009: a look at some numbers

[superslugger616]

Idk how other people feel, but i really like Greene's chances to put up solid numbers in St. Louis. It's easy to forget he was one of the top prospects in baseball back around 2003. A look at his home/road splits over the past few years paint a picture of a slugger who struggles at home yet performs well on the road, which is not usually true of hitters. His numbers look like this:

2006 Home: .210 BA, .282 OBP, .346 SLG, 6 HR, 51/19 K/BB ratio (205 ABs)
2007 Home: .216 BA, .258 OBP, .412 SLG, 12 HR, 77/15 K/BB (291 ABs)
2008 Home: .215 BA, .291 OBP, .360 SLG, 7 HR, 44/17 K/BB (200 ABs)

2006 Away: .280 BA, .356 OBP, .507 SLG, 9 HR, 36/20 K/BB (207 ABs)
2007 Away: .287 BA, .322 OBP, .519 SLG, 15 HR, 51/17 K/BB (320 ABs)
2008 Away: .212 BA, .225 OBP, .317 SLG, 3 HR, 56/5 K/BB (189 ABs)

The away splits from 2006 and 2007 look very similar. His home splits are similar for all three years as well. (note: his k/BB ratio was even better on the road than at home in 06 and 07)

In his new division, Greene gets to play games at The Great American Ballpark and Minute Maid Park, two great parks for right-handed power hitters. Those two stadiums should offset the advantages he had playing at Coors Field and Chase Field while with the Padres. Assuming he can put up away stats similar to his 2006 and 2007 seasons, the question about Greene comes to how he will perform at home with his new stadium and new team.

The move from Petco to Busch is an upgrade for Greene. Petco was the most difficult NL park to go deep in in 2008, while also finishing last in batting average and runs scored (by a wide margin). Busch Stadium isn't exactly a hitters park, but it is an improvement over Petco in all aspects (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/par ... eason=2008) (That site shows the park factors for all stadiums, with Busch ranking 23 and Petco 30 on the list).

Most hitters have better home numbers than road numbers, and although nothing in his stats points to Greene being able to hit better at home than away, it should be expected that he increases his numbers to at least a respectable level. Pujols, Ludwick, Molina, and Kennedy all put up better numbers at home, while Ankiel, Schumaker, and Glaus put up relatively similar spits. Meanwhile, every Padres player put up better road numbers than home numbers.

Greene is also hitting in a much better lineup than he had with the Padres, with much better protection. The guys ahead of him hit the ball well and should provide him with ample RBI opportunities. He will be hitting in the same spot in the lineup he was in SD (6th or 7th), so there shouldn't be any added pressure on him to perform as if he was hitting 3rd or 4th.

If Greene can somehow get his home stats better than his typical road stats, or even about even, he will be a top 5 SS in the league. It certainly seems like an attainable feat. With that said, I'm targeting Greene in drafts for a potential huge return on investment.

[JTWood]

Mentality aside, I'm looking forward to a very productive year from the Cards new SS.

I thought it was a very good acquisition, and I'd consider him a very solid risk-reward guy to give a go at this season.

I didn't sign him in my league, though.

[Padsin05]

cant factor in park when he cant lay off a slider low and away.

[Maris09]

cant factor in park when he cant lay off a slider low and away.

You can kinda say that about half the hitters in baseball though.

That statement sure doesn't explain his more than solid road stats over the past few years.
Did they just not throw him low and away sliders on the road?

[Padsin05]

nope they dont.

You are looking at a player who has regressed in plate discipline every year since hes been up. Expect that trend to continue

240 ba with a 280 obp sure he may hit 25 bombs on mistakes

[Maris09]

25 bombs on mistakes

Um.....pretty sure people will take a 25 HR hitting SS drafted near the 200's all day and twice on Sunday.

[superslugger616]

nope they dont.

You are looking at a player who has regressed in plate discipline every year since hes been up. Expect that trend to continue

240 ba with a 280 obp sure he may hit 25 bombs on mistakes

From 04 to 07 he hit .273, .250, .245, .254.

You're expecting him to hit lower than all those years with a move to a new park and in a better lineup? Slim chance

[RAmst23]

Projecting much more than a mid .250's BA for Khalil is a little too optimistic for me. That .270 average was several years and injuries ago.

Despite that, Khalil can easily return to a .750 OPS production level. A healthy line from Khalil Greene offers alot of upside, 2007 was .254/27/97/89/4 in 611 ABs. I'd say lower runs definitely due to the line-up spot, but I think 80-90 RBIs isn't overly optimistic.

[JTWood]

cant factor in park when he cant lay off a slider low and away.

Pujols has a problem with sliders low and away.

[AussieDodger]

I'll show you some numbers.......

1

The number of times he needs to punch the dug out wall before he goes on the DL.