Elvis Andrus - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Injuries & Player Updates

Elvis Andrus

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Re: Elvis Andrus

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Tue Apr 07, 2009 1:12 pm

Neboguy wrote:^^^Andrus has a realistic shot to perform like Hanley Ramirez...If you are good at evaluating talent, you would see Andrus has the chance to be a stud. The Rangers think so . . .

:-? that you are a bit :-B with this comparison...
Image
RedSoxNation04
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicCafe Ranker
Posts: 3403
Joined: 8 Oct 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Newyorkachusetts

Re: Elvis Andrus

Postby kab21 » Tue Apr 07, 2009 1:34 pm

Neboguy wrote:^^^Andrus has a realistic shot to perform like Hanley Ramirez...If you are good at evaluating talent, you would see Andrus has the chance to be a stud. The Rangers think so . . .


How many times have you seem him play (to evaluate his talent)?
kab21
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterCafe Ranker
Posts: 5333
(Past Year: 175)
Joined: 24 Nov 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Elvis Andrus

Postby Neboguy » Tue Apr 07, 2009 1:48 pm

Once, last night! And you don't have to see him play to evaluate his talent. Take a look at his statistics then compare them in what leagues he played him. Ramirez showed the ability to hit for a higher average, but did not show power in the minors. Same goes for Andrus, he hits the weights (or enhancers), he gets bigger, hits more home runs. I'd like to see your professional opinion of Andrus as opposed to a simple peon response . . .
I'm Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaack!!!!

Please Leave Feedback!

Image
Neboguy
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 492
Joined: 6 Apr 2009
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Elvis Andrus

Postby Matthias » Tue Apr 07, 2009 2:09 pm

Neboguy wrote:Once, last night! And you don't have to see him play to evaluate his talent. Take a look at his statistics then compare them in what leagues he played him. Ramirez showed the ability to hit for a higher average, but did not show power in the minors. Same goes for Andrus, he hits the weights (or enhancers), he gets bigger, hits more home runs. I'd like to see your professional opinion of Andrus as opposed to a simple peon response . . .

Look, I don't think people are really being unfair or trying to be mean here. There's all sorts of metrics that people use when evaluating minor-league talent and you just haven't cited to any of them.

A Baseball Prospectus take on Andrus as reported in another forum:
Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers
PECOTA Says: .247/.299/.332 in 586 PA with 4 HR, 38 BB, 119 K
What PECOTA Doesn't Know: In this case, it's what PECOTA does know. Andrus' performances are always mitigated by his youth, and while he's always been among the youngest players at every level he's played at, he's also shown nothing more than an ability to hit first-pitch fastballs all over the field, which produces a good batting average but nearly nothing by way of power or patience. Throw in amazing defensive skills but a penchant for sloppy errors, and as weird as it might sound, Rangers fans should be glad that Omar Vizquel is around.
Baseball Official: "I think this projection is right on... He's never really dominated anywhere, and I think he's overrated... Between being one of the big prizes of the Teixeira trade and the Michael Young move to third, there's a lot of pressure on this kid."


If you want to talk about how remarkably young Andrus is compared to the levels that he was playing at and compare his performance at those ages versus Hanley and talk EQA in whatever level and system he was playing in, that's a real discussion. But to say that 3 years ago you drafted Hanley and dropped him, and this kid is the same thing.... well, that's not a whole lot of comparison.
0-3 to 4-3. Worst choke in the history of baseball. Enough said.
Matthias
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 4860
Joined: 16 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Elvis Andrus

Postby kab21 » Tue Apr 07, 2009 2:12 pm

Neboguy wrote:Once, last night! And you don't have to see him play to evaluate his talent. Take a look at his statistics then compare them in what leagues he played him. Ramirez showed the ability to hit for a higher average, but did not show power in the minors. Same goes for Andrus, he hits the weights (or enhancers), he gets bigger, hits more home runs. I'd like to see your professional opinion of Andrus as opposed to a simple peon response . . .


I hate this part of prospect logic. Every toolsy latin player that posts bad stats but was very young for his league will become the next Hanley or Reyes etc... Sometimes it happens but more than likely not.

Scouts that have actually seen him play don't think he'll develop alot of power (definitely not Hanley power that you're hyping). I do think he'll become a decent player offensively (his biggest value will be defense) but this year could be a very rough. Like '08 Carlos Gomez rough. A .260 avg, .300 OBP, very little power, and 30 SB's. Not a viable option in most redraft leagues that I play in.

I did like his composure yesterday and how he didn't hack at breaking balls in the dirt which is more of what I expected looking at his MiLB statlines. A 17% K rate is very high for someone that showed very little power last year in AA. So that is at least a positive for him. But I have a hard time believing that he will strike out less than 17% of the time this year (thus killing his BA). In the future it's likely but in redraft leagues you can wait until 2010 (probably 2011) for this guy.
kab21
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterCafe Ranker
Posts: 5333
(Past Year: 175)
Joined: 24 Nov 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Elvis Andrus

Postby Neboguy » Wed Apr 08, 2009 8:58 am

kab21 wrote:If you want to talk about how remarkably young Andrus is compared to the levels that he was playing at and compare his performance at those ages versus Hanley and talk EQA in whatever level and system he was playing in, that's a real discussion. But to say that 3 years ago you drafted Hanley and dropped him, and this kid is the same thing.... well, that's not a whole lot of comparison.


I drafted Hanley in the 23rd round and later packaged him with Brian Fuentes and Freddy Garcia for Shawn Green and A-Rod. I never said that I dropped him. I really don't believe in Baseball Prospectus's Projections either . . . sorry :-D I'm more of a Shandler projection believer. I do believe it will take 1 or 2 years for him to reach Hanley's status as Hanley came up at 23. But in three years, it would not surprise me if Andrus posts a 119-17-59-51 .292 season as Hanley did his rookie year. A 17% K rate will never stand. There is no way this guy maintains a K rate that high. He's hitting 9th with minimal pressure on him. One thing I know, all you "experts" were not drafting Hanley Ramirez in 2006 :-B
I'm Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaack!!!!

Please Leave Feedback!

Image
Neboguy
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 492
Joined: 6 Apr 2009
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Elvis Andrus

Postby mac-unit » Wed Apr 08, 2009 9:48 am

Neboguy wrote:
kab21 wrote:If you want to talk about how remarkably young Andrus is compared to the levels that he was playing at and compare his performance at those ages versus Hanley and talk EQA in whatever level and system he was playing in, that's a real discussion. But to say that 3 years ago you drafted Hanley and dropped him, and this kid is the same thing.... well, that's not a whole lot of comparison.


I drafted Hanley in the 23rd round and later packaged him with Brian Fuentes and Freddy Garcia for Shawn Green and A-Rod. I never said that I dropped him. I really don't believe in Baseball Prospectus's Projections either . . . sorry :-D I'm more of a Shandler projection believer. I do believe it will take 1 or 2 years for him to reach Hanley's status as Hanley came up at 23. But in three years, it would not surprise me if Andrus posts a 119-17-59-51 .292 season as Hanley did his rookie year. A 17% K rate will never stand. There is no way this guy maintains a K rate that high. He's hitting 9th with minimal pressure on him. One thing I know, all you "experts" were not drafting Hanley Ramirez in 2006 :-B


You don't believe in projections of people who have seen him play his entire professional career. But you think your expectation of him being the next Hanley are spot on after seeing 4 at bats?
Image
mac-unit
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1059
(Past Year: 16)
Joined: 30 Mar 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: New Jersey

Re: Elvis Andrus

Postby kab21 » Wed Apr 08, 2009 9:50 am

Neboguy wrote:
kab21 wrote:If you want to talk about how remarkably young Andrus is compared to the levels that he was playing at and compare his performance at those ages versus Hanley and talk EQA in whatever level and system he was playing in, that's a real discussion. But to say that 3 years ago you drafted Hanley and dropped him, and this kid is the same thing.... well, that's not a whole lot of comparison.


I drafted Hanley in the 23rd round and later packaged him with Brian Fuentes and Freddy Garcia for Shawn Green and A-Rod. I never said that I dropped him. I really don't believe in Baseball Prospectus's Projections either . . . sorry :-D I'm more of a Shandler projection believer. I do believe it will take 1 or 2 years for him to reach Hanley's status as Hanley came up at 23. But in three years, it would not surprise me if Andrus posts a 119-17-59-51 .292 season as Hanley did his rookie year. A 17% K rate will never stand. There is no way this guy maintains a K rate that high. He's hitting 9th with minimal pressure on him. One thing I know, all you "experts" were not drafting Hanley Ramirez in 2006 :-B


A) I didn't write that part. You have misquoted me.

B) None of the scouts whose reports that I've read project Andrus to hit for much power. Where does your insight come from?

C) I'm principally talking redraft leagues in fantasy and there is no way that Andrus reduces his K rate this season in the majors when he had a 17% K rate in AA last year. In the future it should reduce a fair amount but not this year. Again where does your insight come from? Is it something like 'this guy is hyped as a great prospect and because his stats look terrible just like Hanley's in the minors' so he is going to follow a similar career path?

D) If you're talking keeper/dynasty leagues then alot of people are drafting Andrus. You're not the only that likes this guy in the future.

E) Hanley is a terrible comp for him. A better unrealistic comp is Reyes whom wasn't expected to have as much power as he has shown. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Andrus struggles for one or two seasons similarly to Reyes '04/'05 seasons with a .260/.300/.360 line and 5HR/40SB. I also see a Edgar Renteria comp thrown out more often as a realistic comp. Maybe he becomes a Reyes-type player but I'm guessing that the chances are better he's more similar to Renteria (whom was a pretty good player).

F) What sets Andrus apart from Alcides Escobar whom possesses a similar (although slightly different) skillset? Why shouldn't he be hyped as much (other than 30 SB potential instead of 50)?
kab21
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterCafe Ranker
Posts: 5333
(Past Year: 175)
Joined: 24 Nov 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Elvis Andrus

Postby Neboguy » Wed Apr 08, 2009 10:32 am

Answer in RED

kab21 wrote:
A) I didn't write that part. You have misquoted me.
You're right, I did mis-quote you last time, but not this time.


B) None of the scouts whose reports that I've read project Andrus to hit for much power. Where does your insight come from?
None of the scouts projected Hanley to hit for much power. My insight comes from experience. If Andrus bulks up, he will hit 15-20 homers in 3 years.

C) I'm principally talking redraft leagues in fantasy and there is no way that Andrus reduces his K rate this season in the majors when he had a 17% K rate in AA last year. In the future it should reduce a fair amount but not this year. Again where does your insight come from? Is it something like 'this guy is hyped as a great prospect and because his stats look terrible just like Hanley's in the minors' so he is going to follow a similar career path?
As stated before, I don't believe he will maintain a 17% K rate as he is batting 9th and the pressure for him is to just get on base.

D) If you're talking keeper/dynasty leagues then alot of people are drafting Andrus. You're not the only that likes this guy in the future.
I know this, but I believe he will be useful in re-draft leagues due to his speed and potential to collect some RBI's and Runs in Texas' potent lineup. He also plays half his games in Arlington.

E) Hanley is a terrible comp for him. A better unrealistic comp is Reyes whom wasn't expected to have as much power as he has shown. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Andrus struggles for one or two seasons similarly to Reyes '04/'05 seasons with a .260/.300/.360 line and 5HR/40SB. I also see a Edgar Renteria comp thrown out more often as a realistic comp. Maybe he becomes a Reyes-type player but I'm guessing that the chances are better he's more similar to Renteria (whom was a pretty good player).
Hanley is a terrible comp for him in your opinion. In my opinion, it is warrented. Hanley was once a Jose Reyes comparison. Andrus may not develop the power of Hanley due to hitting coach/inability to learn. I believe Andrus will be better than Renteria, but Renteria in his prime was not too shabby either.

F) What sets Andrus apart from Alcides Escobar whom possesses a similar (although slightly different) skillset? Why shouldn't he be hyped as much (other than 30 SB potential instead of 50)?

Escobar is a great talent too. I'll go ahead and compare him to . . . TONY FERNANDEZ ;-)
I'm Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaack!!!!

Please Leave Feedback!

Image
Neboguy
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 492
Joined: 6 Apr 2009
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Elvis Andrus

Postby mac-unit » Wed Apr 08, 2009 10:55 am

Hanley hit 32 homeruns in 5 minor league years(1733 AB/254 K). Andrus hit 15 homeruns in 4 minor league years(1598 AB/321 K). Hanley hit .302 in the Minors, Andrus hit .275.


No way should Andrus get these predictions of being the next Hanley. And I have no idea how you can project this after seeing 4 at bats from him.
Image
mac-unit
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1059
(Past Year: 16)
Joined: 30 Mar 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: New Jersey

PreviousNext

Return to Injuries & Player Updates

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Wednesday, Aug. 27
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

St. Louis at Pittsburgh
(12:35 pm)
Texas at Seattle
(3:40 pm)
Tampa Bay at Baltimore
(7:05 pm)
Washington at Philadelphia
(7:05 pm)
Boston at Toronto
(7:07 pm)
NY Yankees at Detroit
(7:08 pm)
Atlanta at NY Mets
(7:10 pm)
Chi Cubs at Cincinnati
(7:10 pm)
Cleveland at Chi White Sox
(8:10 pm)
Oakland at Houston
(8:10 pm)
Minnesota at Kansas City
(8:10 pm)
Milwaukee at San Diego
(9:10 pm)
LA Dodgers at Arizona
(9:40 pm)
Miami at LA Angels
(10:05 pm)
Colorado at San Francisco
(10:15 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact