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Keeper draft, thin pool. Help me make 4th overall pick-WHIR

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Keeper draft, thin pool. Help me make 4th overall pick-WHIR

Postby plapre3 » Tue Mar 31, 2009 2:16 pm

In my league, teams are permitted to keep different numbers of players. In order to avoid confusion, we did a slow draft via email to even up all teams, the rest will be done electronically tomorrow in a live draft. I have the 4th overall pick from here on out; who should I take? Of course, it would help to rank (at least) the top 4, so I'd be assured at getting one of them. Finally, please realize that pitching is very thin, with guys like Danks and Baker already gone. I' thinking it makes the most sense to grab a SP, but I'm welcoming other ideas.

The best players still available:
SP: Ted Lilly, Derek Lowe, Kevin Slowey, Gil Meche, Aaron Harang, Jered Weaver, Jair Jurrjens, Mark Buehrle, Mike Pelfrey, Erik Bedard
RP: Brandon Morrow, Matt Capps, Fransisco Cordero, Heath Bell, Joey Devine, Mike Gonzalez,
C: Benjie Molina, Jorge Posada, Ramon Hernandez,
1B: Conor Jackson, James Loney,
2B: Jose Lopez, Mark DeRosa, Kelly Johnson, Mike Aviles
SS: Miguel Tejada, Mike Aviles
3B: Adrian Beltre, Mark Reynolds, Alex Gordon, Edwin Encarnacion
OF: Torii Hunter, Johnny Damon, Andre Either, Brad Hawpe, Lastings Milledge, Jayson Werth, David Dejesus, Nelson Cruz, Shin-Soo Choo, Rick Ankiel

My team thus far:
C
1B Adrian Gonzalez
2B
SS Michael Young
3B Garret Atkins
OF Carlos Beltran
OF Corey Hart
OF Adam Dunn
UT
SP (Start 5) Johan Santana, Chris Young
RP (Start 3) Joe Nathan, Joakim Soria

I also have an extra 15th round pick and 18th round pick.

As for minor leaguers, I keep 5 for free:
Colby Rasmus (OF-Stl) Matt LaPorta (1B-Cle), Neftali Feliz (SP-Tex), Josh Vitters (3B-ChiNL), Michael Bowden (SP-Bos)

6x6 weekly HtH 14 team roto keeper (between 5 and 10 keepers (no time limits or costs), losing a draft pick for each after 5)
Offensive Categories: BA, OPS, RBI, HR, SB and Runs Scored.
Pitching Categories: W, S, ERA, K/IP, Quality Starts minus Losses, and WHIP
Offensive Starters: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 0F, 0F, 0F, UTIL
Pitching Starters: SP, SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, RP
Bench: 10 spots
Minors: 5 "free" keepers. These players if are eligible to be kept without the loss of a draft pick and in addition to the max of 10.

Thank you all in advance and as always, leave a link.
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Re: Keeper draft, thin pool. Help me make 4th overall pick-WHIR

Postby Southern Illinois Cardinals Fan » Tue Mar 31, 2009 2:24 pm

I'd probably go with one of Slowey, Bedard, Lowe, or Harang.
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Re: Keeper draft, thin pool. Help me make 4th overall pick-WHIR

Postby The Artful Dodger » Tue Mar 31, 2009 2:49 pm

If you must go with a SP, I'd go with either one of Lilly, Harang, Slowey, or Bedard in that order. It is hard to overlook that Ethier, Milledge, Werth, Cruz, and Beltre are out there (either makes a fine draft pick here too).
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Re: Keeper draft, thin pool. Help me make 4th overall pick-WHIR

Postby dooho » Tue Mar 31, 2009 2:52 pm

same answer i gave last night - werth. pitchers always emerge, build a great offense and you'll be able to deal for pitcher once you see who is preforming. not to mention werth makes a much better keeper himself than any of the pitchers on that list.
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Re: Keeper draft, thin pool. Help me make 4th overall pick-WHIR

Postby Manfred » Tue Mar 31, 2009 3:02 pm

you need pitching. I'd go with lowe or lilly. The other pitchers mentioend are fine as well, but I think Lowe and Lilly are most reliable and put up very solid numbers.
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Re: Keeper draft, thin pool. Help me make 4th overall pick-WHIR

Postby plapre3 » Tue Mar 31, 2009 3:16 pm

I understand the idea of going with offense, but none of the options there are a sure thing. Werth, for example, had only a .272 BA with a babip of .327... throw in the fact that he's really just a lefty killer and struggles with righties, he could very well become a platoon player. I'm not sure why people are so high on him.

I like the idea of picking someone that would be a keeper next year; no one think that Slowey has that much upside?
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Re: Keeper draft, thin pool. Help me make 4th overall pick-WHIR

Postby The Artful Dodger » Tue Mar 31, 2009 3:42 pm

plapre3 wrote:I understand the idea of going with offense, but none of the options there are a sure thing. Werth, for example, had only a .272 BA with a babip of .327... throw in the fact that he's really just a lefty killer and struggles with righties, he could very well become a platoon player. I'm not sure why people are so high on him.


Because Werth just about has the job to himself now. He's always had lousy lefty splits, but his career was also halted by fluky injuries and so it was hard to get a really good read on what he could do over a full year anyway. In a keeper, I like Ethier and Milledge over Werth though. Milledge has better overall upside while Ethier is the safest to produce being at the ideal breakout age, having a guaranteed full-time job, and it doesn't hurt when Manny's hitting behind him.

plapre3 wrote:I like the idea of picking someone that would be a keeper next year; no one think that Slowey has that much upside?


In terms of K's, Slowey doesn't have world-beating upside. What he does well in is being stingy in allowing walks, but his ERA will be somewhat held back by a fairly high FB rate. However, he is sort of like a cheaper version of James Shields, meaning a guy who can reasonably have no better than a 3.75-4.00 ERA, a 1.15-1.20 WHIP, and if he pitches 200 innings, 150 K's, but that's really his ceiling.
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Re: Keeper draft, thin pool. Help me make 4th overall pick-WHIR

Postby dooho » Tue Mar 31, 2009 3:45 pm

werth is no platoon player. the phils released jenkins today and he has been killing the ball this spring. not to mention he was a very highly touted prospect. i like him a lot. put it this way, he has WAY more upside than lowe or lilly. lilly probably wasn't even drafted last year. same with cliff lee and i could go on and on. SP's always emerge.
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Re: Keeper draft, thin pool. Help me make 4th overall pick-WHIR

Postby plapre3 » Tue Mar 31, 2009 10:31 pm

With my 1st 2 picks I got Werth and Slowey. Thanks for the help, everyone.

If you're still interested, check out the team... not very happy with it, though:
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=375417
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