rotoquest wrote:I like Ray for the closer jog as much as anyone else, but look who he is closing for. Everyone of them is probably a FA in everyone's league except maybe Guthrie. Save chances = ?
Jeremy Guthrie * Koji Uehara * Mark Hendrickson * Alfredo Simon * Adam Eaton
correct me if im wrong, but closers in bad teams always seem to get their fair share of save chances. I can envision the orioles winning the few games that theyll win by a small margin of runs, which will translate into save opportunities for whoever is closing for them...
One other issue is that 57 of his potential save opportunities come against The Yankees, Sox and Rays, all with strong lineups. Or looking at it another way, how many of those 57 games, against those pitching staffs will render the O's with a lead in the 9th?
I am torn myself on him as I was late with my last closer at my auction, getting stuck with Sherrill (I also have Broxton and Wood, but in our league everyone carries 3 closers). I have 2nd pick in a free agent draft tomorrow and, while it may seem nice to handcuff Ray with Sherrill, I may just take Street to ensure I have a viable 3rd closer, and put Ray on my list if he is available when it comes back around.
rotoquest wrote:I like Ray for the closer jog as much as anyone else, but look who he is closing for. Everyone of them is probably a FA in everyone's league except maybe Guthrie. Save chances = ?
Jeremy Guthrie * Koji Uehara * Mark Hendrickson * Alfredo Simon * Adam Eaton
correct me if im wrong, but closers in bad teams always seem to get their fair share of save chances. I can envision the orioles winning the few games that theyll win by a small margin of runs, which will translate into save opportunities for whoever is closing for them...
Below are the top save leaders from 2008, and you'll notice that they all pitched for teams with a descent starting pitching staff, and for the most part, pretty good offenses. It stands to reason that you will have less save opportunities if your starting pitching consistently gets killed, and your offense cannot bail the team out on a consistent basis either. So IMO, the ceiling for saves in baltimore might be 30.
rotoquest wrote:I like Ray for the closer jog as much as anyone else, but look who he is closing for. Everyone of them is probably a FA in everyone's league except maybe Guthrie. Save chances = ?
Jeremy Guthrie * Koji Uehara * Mark Hendrickson * Alfredo Simon * Adam Eaton
correct me if im wrong, but closers in bad teams always seem to get their fair share of save chances. I can envision the orioles winning the few games that theyll win by a small margin of runs, which will translate into save opportunities for whoever is closing for them...
Below are the top save leaders from 2008, and you'll notice that they all pitched for teams with a descent starting pitching staff, and for the most part, pretty good offenses. It stands to reason that you will have less save opportunities if your starting pitching consistently gets killed, and your offense cannot bail the team out on a consistent basis either. So IMO, the ceiling for saves in baltimore might be 30.
Buttermaker wrote: correct me if im wrong, but closers in bad teams always seem to get their fair share of save chances. I can envision the orioles winning the few games that theyll win by a small margin of runs, which will translate into save opportunities for whoever is closing for them...
Below are the top save leaders from 2008, and you'll notice that they all pitched for teams with a descent starting pitching staff, and for the most part, pretty good offenses. It stands to reason that you will have less save opportunities if your starting pitching consistently gets killed, and your offense cannot bail the team out on a consistent basis either. So IMO, the ceiling for saves in baltimore might be 30.
Even if Rays gets 25 saves that is gold compared to where we get him in the draft. He is a quality closer and will get his. The O's will have a good amount of games where Ray/Sherrill will get a save opp. The bullpen as a whole is more of a key than the 1-5 quality of the SPs.
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Y`s Guy wrote:Even if Rays gets 25 saves that is gold compared to where we get him in the draft. He is a quality closer and will get his. The O's will have a good amount of games where Ray/Sherrill will get a save opp. The bullpen as a whole is more of a key than the 1-5 quality of the SPs.
Undeniable that there is excellent value getting Ray off waivers, but temper the save expectations based on all the points made here and the bullpen issue which you brought up.
i really think you guys are underestimating the ability of the o's lineup. grant it, they are not riddled with allstars up and down like the yanks, sox, and rays...but they are good enough to keep the team in ball games. the starting pitching is absolutely horrible but you have to believe matusz and tillman will be up sooner rather than later because of their poor starters. a lineup that features brian roberts, nick markakis, adam jones, aubrey huff, melvin mora, and eventually matt wieters, can score runs. you guys are forgetting it is a 162-game season and the O's will get their wins over great teams like the yanks, etc...they won't get swept in every series. ray will get his save opps. projeting only 25 save OPPORTUNITIES is absolutely insane.
Thank you Montana...even though I am sox Fan, I agree with the huge potential that the O's line up has as far as hitting...The key word here is potential...
I already locked C.Ray in both of my leagues and traded away Sherril for some bats with hopes that Ray will be closing sooner than later
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by Buttermaker » Sat Apr 04, 2009 7:57 am 
