Guys, I posted this same thing in the draft thread and it didn't elicit the response I thought it would. It's more of a strategy thing and I wanted to see if it would get discussion here. If there are any spreadsheet/stats geeks here, please let me know what you think because I know I'm not the only one coming up with crazy excel stuff for the draft!
I'm in a 10X10 H2H mixed league, settings and categories as follows:
Every year I punt a few categories, and I typically finish in the top 2 or 3. I usually punt HRs and RBI's because I strictly go after leadoff hitters that get a lot of hits (esp. triples) and steals with high avg. This typically gets me wins in 6 or 7 batting categories. For pitchers, I go after pitchers with low HR rates on good teams and two stud closers (but no middle relievers, thus punting HLDs). I usually want to break even in pitching or just avoid getting blown out.
This year I've put together a spreadsheet and started looking at standard deviations to help me decide what categories to punt. Looking at this, the categories that I usually go after (triples, SBs, AVG) have pretty high STD DEV's in comparison to their mean. Should I be targeting the studs in these categories to ensure wins since the spread is a lot bigger? Or should I be avoiding these categories because they have such a big spread and may not be as reliable?
(Because it's H2H, I am a strict believer in punting a few categories to make bigger gains in other categories. If this were Roto, I wouldn't be doing this.)
I'm gonna have to disagree on ignoring relievers. Yes, BS are a negative category, but if you are carrying extra starters in their place aren't you essentially feeding into the negative categories L, and HRA? I think you still ned a mix of relievers and starters, in fact, I'd be more inclined to go premium holds guys like Marmol and Kuo this year (with SP eligibility) because they have high K rates, should rack up holds, they should be helpful in ERA and WHIP, and won't necessarily be in save situations to blow them. With HR's allowed as a category, I'd argue it's even more important to get power groundballers as well.
chisox56 wrote:Even with SV, BS, and HLD??? I usually try to get 2 stud relievers to keep BS low and SVs high. Last year I had Nathan and Broxton and it worked out really well.
Well, you would win every week in BS with no relievers no? So you have 3 categories for relievers with 1 being a negative one. Why would you carry any relievers?
Because I'd prefer to win all three categories! Let's say I use high picks (rds 4 and 7 or 8) on two of Papelbon/Nathan/Broxton, and then I also use a pick somewhere around rd. 15-17 to grab Kuo or Putz. Ideally I'd have solid guys that can get saves, a hold or two a week, and blow very little saves. Wouldn't you rather take that chance and go 2-1 or 3-0 in those categories than going 1-2 every week?
I still think I'm going to stick with a stud reliever strategy early and high upside SPs on good teams later in the draft. I was more interested in hearing how people in H2H leagues set up their teams with regards to punting categories - especially in leagues with many categories.
The Blown Saves and Holds categories are an explosive combination. If you look at the league "leaders" in Blown Saves from last season, many of them were actually some top set-up men (Broxton, Okajima, Bell, Arrendondo, for example).
If you are accustomed to punting Holds, I'd suggest that existence of the BS category should encourage you to continue the practice. Especially with only 5 pitching positions in your league.
However, since Holds and Saves are of equal value among the 10 pitching categories, a DRAFT strategy might be to avoid closers all together, in that the you can get quality holds guys much cheaper (later rounds) during the draft, allowing you to focus your selections on top starters and hitting instead.