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Projection-systems like CHONE, ZiPS, PECOTA - help

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Projection-systems like CHONE, ZiPS, PECOTA - help

Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Mar 30, 2009 7:11 am

If you're inclined, please help me put together a list of "items" that projection systems don't cover. Here's what I have (and I know the different systems vary):

1. Athleticism, pitch velocity, pitcher repertoire, and anything else scouts commonly classify as "tools".
2. Intangibles: leadership, determination, dedication

I use a composite spreadsheet of all the major projection systems, and use a formula tangotiger provided to come up with dollar values. I don't think there's a better way to stack the odds in one's favor when it comes to drafting a very well balanced, winning, productive team.

But, the projection systems aren't bulletproof, and I was hoping you could help me identify weaknesses in those projection systems, so that I can use other resources to compliment the data.

Thanks!
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Re: Projection-systems like CHONE, ZiPS, PECOTA - help

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Mar 30, 2009 12:45 pm

fantasyfiend wrote:1. Athleticism, pitch velocity, pitcher repertoire, and anything else scouts commonly classify as "tools".
2. Intangibles: leadership, determination, dedication

A lot of people would argue at the very least, that those in group '1' are covered in projections.
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Re: Projection-systems like CHONE, ZiPS, PECOTA - help

Postby Yanks_Baby » Mon Mar 30, 2009 12:48 pm

A big flaw I see in all the above is the bigger pitcher. PECOTA may project the Al-West to bat .280, but would project pitchers pitching against Al-West teams to have a BAA of .260. It treats everything individually, and loses sight of the bigger picture. Also, it doesn't take into account playtime because of arbitration, which is such a common knowledge idea that I'm disappointed they don't.
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Re: Projection-systems like CHONE, ZiPS, PECOTA - help

Postby Tavish » Mon Mar 30, 2009 12:49 pm

I wouldn't consider projection systems not accounting for leadership, determination, etc as a "weakness". I could really care less how much of a leader the guys on my fantasy team are.
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Re: Projection-systems like CHONE, ZiPS, PECOTA - help

Postby ayebatter » Mon Mar 30, 2009 12:53 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
fantasyfiend wrote:1. Athleticism, pitch velocity, pitcher repertoire, and anything else scouts commonly classify as "tools".
2. Intangibles: leadership, determination, dedication

A lot of people would argue at the very least, that those in group '1' are covered in projections.



Yep, and if you want Leadership you can draft Varitek, Determination you can draft Eckstien, and Dedication will bring any number of career minor leaguers.
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Re: Projection-systems like CHONE, ZiPS, PECOTA - help

Postby Cooner » Mon Mar 30, 2009 1:50 pm

The past few years I've done a similar thing... running averages of several projections before calculating VORP. This results in very "safe" projections... no breakouts, no flops. One thing to remember is that this generates mean projections, not necessarily accurate projections.

This is especially important for guys like (in the extreme case) ARod this year, where average projections may be taking into account projections that expect him to miss three weeks alongside projections that expect him to miss three months. My point is that deviation is important, and average projections should always be taken with a grain of salt. Consider using median projections (it's easy to excel this) or throwing out both extrema and then taking the mean (harder to excel this).
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Re: Projection-systems like CHONE, ZiPS, PECOTA - help

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Mar 30, 2009 8:58 pm

Yanks_Baby wrote:A big flaw I see in all the above is the bigger pitcher. PECOTA may project the Al-West to bat .280, but would project pitchers pitching against Al-West teams to have a BAA of .260. It treats everything individually, and loses sight of the bigger picture. Also, it doesn't take into account playtime because of arbitration, which is such a common knowledge idea that I'm disappointed they don't.


1. No, it doesn't. All the major projection systems cross-check hitting against pitching to make them consistent.

2. I have no clue what you are talking about.
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