Every year I punt a few categories, and I typically finish in the top 2 or 3. I usually punt HRs and RBI's because I strictly go after leadoff hitters that get a lot of hits (esp. triples) and steals with high avg. This typically gets me wins in 6 or 7 batting categories. For pitchers, I go after pitchers with low HR rates on good teams and two stud closers (but no middle relievers, thus punting HLDs). I usually want to break even in pitching or just avoid getting blown out.
This year I've put together a spreadsheet and started looking at standard deviations to help me decide what categories to punt. Looking at this, the categories that I usually go after (triples, SBs, AVG) have pretty high STD DEV's in comparison to their mean. Should I be targeting the studs in these categories to ensure wins since the spread is a lot bigger? Or should I be avoiding these categories because they have such a big spread and may not be as reliable?
(Because it's H2H, I am a strict believer in punting a few categories to make bigger gains in other categories. If this were Roto, I wouldn't be doing this.)
I guess I don't have a problem sticking with my normal strategy, but using STD DEV's this year was a different way that I thought I could gain even more of an edge. Since it's somewhat new to me, I thought I'd reach out and see if anyone had any recommendations.
Well I go the other way. I always end up 2nd or 3rd in my league as well, but I never punt any categories during the draft. I wait to see what value is available during my draft and what is left off of the WW. Once I get a feel for my team's strengths, I try and plug holes were I can. It usually keeps me competitive with everyone.
Again it is scientific, and why fix what isn't broken. Thanks for mine.
I like the idea of sticking with your normal strategy. If you are able to in some way get the studs in those cats, Hanley, Reyes, and Rollins, then I'd say you should really go with it.
However, I like the idea of being maleable early in the draft and then adjusting strategy accordingly. So, if you don't get thse guys, have a backup plan... since that's what the standard deviation mean to me, that unless you get the top notch guys, there's little else available. Otherwise, if you don't get the studs you might find yourself reaching for the Crawfords, et. al.