Yeah. I would agree that 30 homers is out of reach for Shoppach. 25 seems optimistic.
But, better news on the Shoppach front, this from Gammons:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/ind ... mons_peter
Indians manager Eric Wedge will use Victor Martinez and Kelly Shoppach "according to situations. Each will catch two or three days apiece, although Victor may play more first base because he's so good there. Kelly will catch Opening Day with Victor at first because I want Shoppach catching Cliff Lee."
Looks like Shoppach is in line for at least 3 days a week. I can definitely see VMart taking the lion's share of the playing time at first, with Shoppach getting to 400+ at bats easily, with the 15-20 (or more) homers and subpar average to go with it.