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Rank these 3B from 1-5

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Re: Rank these 3B from 1-5

Postby NikkiSixx » Mon Mar 30, 2009 5:48 pm

The Artful Dodger wrote:
NikkiSixx wrote:
The Artful Dodger wrote:
The reason why I'm down on Atkins as a whole is he's easier to replace with a Zimmerman/Beltre type later. He's not going to hit any more than 25 HR nor hit well over .300 (~.320) again and there's no Matt Holliday backing him up, FWIW. I'd rather gamble on Davis' upside of 30-35 homeruns than Atkins or for that matter, having to live with a bundle of games Chipper will miss in not playing.


Not having Holliday does suck, but are you willing to spend a 5th round pick on an unproven player in the majors? The upside can be very rewarding yes, but at the same time Jonny Gomes had a very similar 2005 only to fall flat on his face in 2006. Now, I am not comparing Davis and Gomes by any means...nor am I saying Davis will fall on his face this year, but with he has looked good for 1 half of a season and he JUST turned 23 years old. My point is, I wouldnt draft an unproven player like Davis over proven vets like Atkins and Jones until he has proved himself for a full season. That being said I do think Davis will be a consistent .280 hitter with 35-40 HR's a year one day.


Everyone's risk tolerance differs and most times, I wouldn't draft a player so highly based off only less than 300 AB. In the case of Davis, there's little to suggest in his minor league record that he can't hit for serious power. He also hit 17 HR in 295 AB; prorate that to nearly 600 AB and he's capable of just about 35 HR. His potential is like that of Ryan Howard's or Prince Fielder's and in fact, his frame as well as his power to all fields reminds me of Howard. That to me is definitely worth taking a chance on. The worst risk is spending too much on a "safe" pick when there's better replacement options at better values.

Point taken, and Ryan Howard is a good comparison actually. If Davis explodes as early as Howard did then its one hell of a steal (obviously).

"I wouldn't draft a player so highly based off only less than 300 AB."

Thats my whole point and I dont think he will hit above .270 this year either.
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Re: Rank these 3B from 1-5

Postby da_mane_man » Mon Mar 30, 2009 5:52 pm

there's a lot of good discussion going on in here. i gotta say that i agree with not taking atkins. i actually had him ranked 5th out of those guys. i don't like the fact that he's been consistently declining over the past few years and i don't like the fact that holliday is gone. and like it's been said, you can get a comparable player later.

as for my draft, i ended up taking zimmerman in the 8th. i was gonna take chipper or davis in the 7th but they both went before my pick. what's interesting is that atkins went before both of them lol. i backed zimm up with mark reynolds later and i also got taehen who can play 3B. i actually think reynolds is very good value for where he's going. he's bound to hit for a better avg. than he did last year, and he's showing more aggressiveness on the base pads this spring. he already has 4 steals.
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Re: Rank these 3B from 1-5

Postby NikkiSixx » Mon Mar 30, 2009 6:09 pm

da_mane_man wrote:there's a lot of good discussion going on in here. i gotta say that i agree with not taking atkins. i actually had him ranked 5th out of those guys. i don't like the fact that he's been consistently declining over the past few years and i don't like the fact that holliday is gone. and like it's been said, you can get a comparable player later.

as for my draft, i ended up taking zimmerman in the 8th. i was gonna take chipper or davis in the 7th but they both went before my pick. what's interesting is that atkins went before both of them lol. i backed zimm up with mark reynolds later and i also got taehen who can play 3B. i actually think reynolds is very good value for where he's going. he's bound to hit for a better avg. than he did last year, and he's showing more aggressiveness on the base pads this spring. he already has 4 steals.

2006 was obviously a career year for Atkins, you would be silly to project him for another stat line like that one. So I wouldnt exactly say he is "declining." Has he posted a lower average and less HR each year since 2006? yes he has. I just cant see him hitting any lower than he did last season. Im expecting something along the lines of his 2007 season, he has been an RBI machine every since he won the starting 3B job in Colorado, and he plays everyday. Hes a guy that Im confident will play in just about every game, and .300 avg. 25 HR, 100 RBI isnt all that bad...

I do understand that you need to take a risk on some players, I do that quite frequently, but I also think you need a few guys on your roster that you can trust to put the type of stats Atkins does each year.

I stand by my rankings and Atkins still tops my list of these 3rd basemen...for this year anyway.
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Re: Rank these 3B from 1-5

Postby The Artful Dodger » Mon Mar 30, 2009 6:38 pm

NikkiSixx wrote:
da_mane_man wrote:there's a lot of good discussion going on in here. i gotta say that i agree with not taking atkins. i actually had him ranked 5th out of those guys. i don't like the fact that he's been consistently declining over the past few years and i don't like the fact that holliday is gone. and like it's been said, you can get a comparable player later.

as for my draft, i ended up taking zimmerman in the 8th. i was gonna take chipper or davis in the 7th but they both went before my pick. what's interesting is that atkins went before both of them lol. i backed zimm up with mark reynolds later and i also got taehen who can play 3B. i actually think reynolds is very good value for where he's going. he's bound to hit for a better avg. than he did last year, and he's showing more aggressiveness on the base pads this spring. he already has 4 steals.

2006 was obviously a career year for Atkins, you would be silly to project him for another stat line like that one. So I wouldnt exactly say he is "declining." Has he posted a lower average and less HR each year since 2006? yes he has. I just cant see him hitting any lower than he did last season. Im expecting something along the lines of his 2007 season, he has been an RBI machine every since he won the starting 3B job in Colorado, and he plays everyday. Hes a guy that Im confident will play in just about every game, and .300 avg. 25 HR, 100 RBI isnt all that bad...

I do understand that you need to take a risk on some players, I do that quite frequently, but I also think you need a few guys on your roster that you can trust to put the type of stats Atkins does each year.

I stand by my rankings and Atkins still tops my list of these 3rd basemen...for this year anyway.


Atkins actually regressed to 21 HR last year, FWIW, and so has his SLG percentage. I don't exactly see how he's "safe". Without Holliday, I think his R/RBI are in the 90-95 range. Assuming 20-25 homeruns, you can still get that kind of production out of Zimmerman, Beltre, and Huff later. My point is Atkins is just overvalued for what he really does.
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Re: Rank these 3B from 1-5

Postby NikkiSixx » Mon Mar 30, 2009 7:13 pm

The Artful Dodger wrote:
NikkiSixx wrote:
da_mane_man wrote:there's a lot of good discussion going on in here. i gotta say that i agree with not taking atkins. i actually had him ranked 5th out of those guys. i don't like the fact that he's been consistently declining over the past few years and i don't like the fact that holliday is gone. and like it's been said, you can get a comparable player later.

as for my draft, i ended up taking zimmerman in the 8th. i was gonna take chipper or davis in the 7th but they both went before my pick. what's interesting is that atkins went before both of them lol. i backed zimm up with mark reynolds later and i also got taehen who can play 3B. i actually think reynolds is very good value for where he's going. he's bound to hit for a better avg. than he did last year, and he's showing more aggressiveness on the base pads this spring. he already has 4 steals.

2006 was obviously a career year for Atkins, you would be silly to project him for another stat line like that one. So I wouldnt exactly say he is "declining." Has he posted a lower average and less HR each year since 2006? yes he has. I just cant see him hitting any lower than he did last season. Im expecting something along the lines of his 2007 season, he has been an RBI machine every since he won the starting 3B job in Colorado, and he plays everyday. Hes a guy that Im confident will play in just about every game, and .300 avg. 25 HR, 100 RBI isnt all that bad...

I do understand that you need to take a risk on some players, I do that quite frequently, but I also think you need a few guys on your roster that you can trust to put the type of stats Atkins does each year.

I stand by my rankings and Atkins still tops my list of these 3rd basemen...for this year anyway.


Atkins actually regressed to 21 HR last year, FWIW, and so has his SLG percentage. I don't exactly see how he's "safe". Without Holliday, I think his R/RBI are in the 90-95 range. Assuming 20-25 homeruns, you can still get that kind of production out of Zimmerman, Beltre, and Huff later. My point is Atkins is just overvalued for what he really does.


What he really does is put up the same numbers Aramis Ramirez does with slightly less power. I completely understand your point of view but I just cant bring myself to take Davis over him until I see a full year of production out of Davis.
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Re: Rank these 3B from 1-5

Postby hybrid » Tue Mar 31, 2009 4:06 am

The point isn't about reaching for Davis that is being made IMO. The point is you can get very similiar value to Atkins later, so therefor it's better value just to wait. Also Atkins has seen most his ratios drop since 2006, his avg/power/plate discipline ... it's just not a good sign.
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