Ray or Motte?

[BitterDodgerFan]

who's going to be the closer to have when it's all said and done?

[Johnny Tuttle]

For me it's not close. I want Chris Ray out of these two--in keeper leagues, too:

1. Sherrill had 3-4 saves after the ASB last year and was once seen as a loogy. That's not much competition, as Sherrill himself has more or less said himself this spring (!).
2. Ray's already been dominant (or passable or acceptable or anything!) at the MLB level. Does Motte have even one IP yet?
3. Does everyone really think LaRussa's turning from the GM's choice in Perez, a guy with MLB saves (not many, but still some experience, some being groomed), because of his lack of experience only to tab the one guy in the competition with even less experience? Really?
4. Motte's a single pitch pitcher, and I'm more than curious how a guy with only a FB will cut it in the bigs. Single pitch pitchers with FBs tend to get rocked: see Verlander's 2008 (When he couldn't locate anything but the FB) for what happens even to 98 MPH pitches when the hitters can time them with impunity. I don't think it's physiologically possible to be a successful single pitch pitcher with that pitch's being a FB: the human body can't do 105-110.
5. There's no competition in Baltimore: Ray's next in line, and it's a matter of time. Even if Motte does moderately well and gets the tab, one bad outing and it's Franklin. No wait, Kinney. No wait, Perez. No wait, committee. No wait, McClellan. Even in holds leagues, this is going to get tired quickly (you won't know what they guy could give you).

[BitterDodgerFan]

great reply there johnny, i think i agree with you. ray was a solid closer before the surgery and i wouldn't be surprised if he's closing games within the first couple weeks of the season.

[Johnny Tuttle]

Thanks.

I did make a mistake though: Motte did get in 11 IP last year and closed a game. No, he's no where near established, but he's got a lifetime MLB ERA under 1, so he's slightly further along than I'd thought. It doesn't change my mind on Ray v. Motte, but it's a slight closing of the gap.

[Surfs up]

For me it's not close. I want Chris Ray out of these two--in keeper leagues, too:

1. Sherrill had 3-4 saves after the ASB last year and was once seen as a loogy. That's not much competition, as Sherrill himself has more or less said himself this spring (!).
2. Ray's already been dominant (or passable or acceptable or anything!) at the MLB level. Does Motte have even one IP yet?
3. Does everyone really think LaRussa's turning from the GM's choice in Perez, a guy with MLB saves (not many, but still some experience, some being groomed), because of his lack of experience only to tab the one guy in the competition with even less experience? Really?
4. Motte's a single pitch pitcher, and I'm more than curious how a guy with only a FB will cut it in the bigs. Single pitch pitchers with FBs tend to get rocked: see Verlander's 2008 (When he couldn't locate anything but the FB) for what happens even to 98 MPH pitches when the hitters can time them with impunity. I don't think it's physiologically possible to be a successful single pitch pitcher with that pitch's being a FB: the human body can't do 105-110.
5. There's no competition in Baltimore: Ray's next in line, and it's a matter of time. Even if Motte does moderately well and gets the tab, one bad outing and it's Franklin. No wait, Kinney. No wait, Perez. No wait, committee. No wait, McClellan. Even in holds leagues, this is going to get tired quickly (you won't know what they guy could give you).

Great post

[Geek]

For me it's not close. I want Chris Ray out of these two--in keeper leagues, too:

1. Sherrill had 3-4 saves after the ASB last year and was once seen as a loogy. That's not much competition, as Sherrill himself has more or less said himself this spring (!).
2. Ray's already been dominant (or passable or acceptable or anything!) at the MLB level. Does Motte have even one IP yet?
3. Does everyone really think LaRussa's turning from the GM's choice in Perez, a guy with MLB saves (not many, but still some experience, some being groomed), because of his lack of experience only to tab the one guy in the competition with even less experience? Really?
4. Motte's a single pitch pitcher, and I'm more than curious how a guy with only a FB will cut it in the bigs. Single pitch pitchers with FBs tend to get rocked: see Verlander's 2008 (When he couldn't locate anything but the FB) for what happens even to 98 MPH pitches when the hitters can time them with impunity. I don't think it's physiologically possible to be a successful single pitch pitcher with that pitch's being a FB: the human body can't do 105-110.
5. There's no competition in Baltimore: Ray's next in line, and it's a matter of time. Even if Motte does moderately well and gets the tab, one bad outing and it's Franklin. No wait, Kinney. No wait, Perez. No wait, committee. No wait, McClellan. Even in holds leagues, this is going to get tired quickly (you won't know what they guy could give you).

Well, I would respond that :

1) Ray is still #2 on the depth chart. Sherrill is the closer in Baltimore until he loses the job.

2) Perez is doubtful to even make the Cardinals opening day roster. He has health issues. Kinney has been awful and Franklin has said in so many words he doesn't want the job. There is no competition for the Cardinals' closing gig. It's Motte's until he loses it.

3) Fastball guys can be productive as a CL. It's a much different story for a reliever than a SP like Verlander, whose stuff guys will get used to seeing over a few innings. Plus, Verlander didn't have great command of his FP in 2008. A 14/1 K-BB ration indicates great command of that lethal stuff. Billy Koch had years of saves production without a good second pitch.

4) Motte does throw a slider and occasional change to throw batters off. The slider isn't Smoltzian, but it does work alongside his fastball.

[Syfo-Dyas]

For me it's not close. I want Chris Ray out of these two--in keeper leagues, too:

1. Sherrill had 3-4 saves after the ASB last year and was once seen as a loogy. That's not much competition, as Sherrill himself has more or less said himself this spring (!).
2. Ray's already been dominant (or passable or acceptable or anything!) at the MLB level. Does Motte have even one IP yet?
3. Does everyone really think LaRussa's turning from the GM's choice in Perez, a guy with MLB saves (not many, but still some experience, some being groomed), because of his lack of experience only to tab the one guy in the competition with even less experience? Really?
4. Motte's a single pitch pitcher, and I'm more than curious how a guy with only a FB will cut it in the bigs. Single pitch pitchers with FBs tend to get rocked: see Verlander's 2008 (When he couldn't locate anything but the FB) for what happens even to 98 MPH pitches when the hitters can time them with impunity. I don't think it's physiologically possible to be a successful single pitch pitcher with that pitch's being a FB: the human body can't do 105-110.
5. There's no competition in Baltimore: Ray's next in line, and it's a matter of time. Even if Motte does moderately well and gets the tab, one bad outing and it's Franklin. No wait, Kinney. No wait, Perez. No wait, committee. No wait, McClellan. Even in holds leagues, this is going to get tired quickly (you won't know what they guy could give you).

Great post

Nice but not entirely based on facts. Although I agree that Ray will close, but what you say about Motte is wrong.

1.
http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports ... enDocument

The righthander has seized recent opportunities to show not only improved command of a second pitch, his slider, but also the poise to handle what La Russa calls the hardest three outs of the game. Motte, sporting a 98 mph fastball, worked a four-out save last week against Tampa Bay. On Saturday, he rifled through three members of Washington's major-league lineup in unfriendly conditions to clinch a 12-11 victory.

"He pitches every inning the same," Duncan said. "It doesn't matter if it's the fifth or the ninth, he pitches it the same. That's a really good asset."

So he has a slider as a secondary pitch, and he can work in high pressure situations.

2.
Yes even a 98 MPH pitch can be hit a long way, but the Verlander comparison is all wrong. He is a starter. Adjusting takes time. Hitters gettin a second look at him with only one pitch workin, he is toast. There'll be no second time with Motte. Only 3-4 pitches to adjust. And thats aint easy. Then he suddenly throws a slider.

3. Are you sure you talk about TLR? I don't think he removes anybody after one bad game.

My concern:
The catch with Motte could be the same as with Marmol.

All in all, I like Ray better.


edited: I agree, TLR could remove Motte after several bad games in a row.

[BitterDodgerFan]

about TLR, he probably won't pull the closer after one bad game, but last year he used perez, franklin, izzy, motte all to close so he's pretty fickle when it comes to trusting a closer.

the piece of news that gives ray the edge imo was when sherrill yesterday came out and actually said he won't mind if ray took the job from him. i mean if the closer himself doesn't have confidence in himself, it can't be too long for the manager to notice it. so much of closing is about confidence, afterall.

the other issue is that the cards said they won't name a closer early in the season. whether this is done to take the pressure of motte or make it easier to remove him from the role if he doesn't get it done, i'm not too sure.

motte may end up with more saves by end of may but i'm thinking ray will be the rest of the way.

[Johnny Tuttle]

TLR certainly did yank folks in and out of the closer's role last year. Maybe it takes a few bad games, maybe it takes one. The possibility's going to be there.

BP and BA have written up serious concerns about Motte's secondary pitches. I make the comparison to Verlander more so because I couldn't think of a single other guy that reliant on nothing but a fastball, but if you want a reliever, let's go with Kyle Farnsworth. Koch doesn't make me want Motte more than I do now, I'll confess though

Motte could proove me wrong (and his debut last year was stellar); I'm just not thinking he's a slam dunk.

Sure, Perez might not make the team, but here again, if that's how their one-time "closer of the future" gets treated now, why are we all rushing to Motte or treating him as a sure thing?

I could easily be prooven wrong here in stridently arguing against Motte (and I hope I am; his grandkids' ability to not work depends on him making good), and 2009 sure could end with Motte having more saves and fantasy value than Ray.

I'm just taking Ray over Motte now based on what I see here: I see more than 50% of outcomes being Ray over Motte. I'd still roster Motte in many formats.

[Freebird27]

Seperated at Birth:
Tony LaRussa - Mike Shannahan

hardest guys to read when it comes to commitees