by Meddler » Sat Mar 28, 2009 2:27 am
Is it H2H or Roto? I'll just assume 5x5 roto for now. I love your approach to pitching*. You got some really great bargains there, especially in terms of overall value, but I'd be a bit concerned about my WHIP. None of your starters scream "nice WHIP" when I look at them. Volquez might improve further. Liriano might continue to bounce back. Gallardo might bounce back. Nolasco's breakout may have been for real. And Floyd might post another WHIP 0.20 below his career mark. None of those are givens though, some aren't even particularly likely. But you look like you're great in the other four categories. Nolasco in the 12th is a really nice value, I'm ready to buy into him if he can keep himself healthy again. So is Gallardo in the 10th.
Offensively, the obvious hole is SS. But I think how you handle this is predicated by how you handle your outfield.
Forgetting SS for a second, your biggest weakness offensively is going to be SB. I really like Werth and Hart, but neither of them is going to swipe more than 20-25 bags. You'll get about 10 apiece from Hamilton and Bay. Even though Hart and Werth were nice value picks, its hard to start them over Hamilton or Bay. Tex and Zimmerman, your corner INF, don't run at all. Phillips will get you 20-30 as well, but he's not a burner. Without a burner in there somewhere, or sacrificing Bay's power to get both Hart and Werth in your lineup, you're behind by quite a bit here.
But this just the beginning, I really like what you did here and its going to take some careful management, but you have lots of viable choices. If you manage some nice early season maneuvering you should be in great shape in all five offensive categories.
First, there's obviously SS. Guzman is pretty useless for you. He doesn't run much, and even if he manages another high AVG, you have plenty of that already. Andrus is interesting, even if all he gives you is 30 SB, that goes a long way to helping your speed while keeping Hart or Werth on your bench. That alone would give you a quality offense.
The more gutsy approach to this situation, however, would be to find a way to trade your outfield surplus for a better SS. Coco Crisp is an interesting Wild Card here. If he could steal 30-40 bases for KC, you'll have lots of options (even if he doesn't, you still have Bourn, but I like Crisp and the rest of the KC offense a bit better). My gut says your best option will probably be to trade Hart or Werth for the best SS you can get. If you can get a guy like Furcal or even Alexei Ramirez, you're in much better shape speed-wise and you get a big overall upgrade over Andrus. If not, I'd still say its worth it to get someone like Jeter or Hardy, but you'll have to really balance playing time between Crisp (or Bourn) and whichever one of Hart/Werth you have left. Pay attention to the Royals (or Astros) schedule, when they face a pitcher whose easy to run on or a catcher with a poor arm, you should probably start Crisp (or Bourn).
You could even get really gutsy and try to get one of the big three SS. Does the owner of Jimmy Rollins need a power or outfield upgrade and an undervalued mid-tier pitcher (especially someone with a solid WHIP, maybe Ted Lilly or Javier Vazquez)? Maybe you offer to swap them Bay and Liriano or Volquez. For Reyes, I'm guessing you'd have to offer Hamilton instead of Bay, but it might be possible. Ramirez probably is out of the question. Either one of those deals would be an interesting gamble for you though.
*My general philosophy for pitching is similar to yours, there's no reason to overbid on anyone early. However, the way my draft went (10x10 roto 12 team league of intelligent Mets fans), by a confluence of forces and just the way the draft went, I wound up with both Lincecum and Hamels. I took Lincecum in the 2nd, with the 21st overall pick, mostly because all the position players I wanted there were taken and I just watched CC and Johan fall off the board (In 10x10 I actually preferred Lincecum over those two anyway). And Hamels managed to slip into the 5th round, and I just couldn't pass that value up (It was weird, J-Roll, Utley, and Howard all lasted a few more picks than they should have, but none lasted THAT long).