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First ever live draft, how'd I do?

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First ever live draft, how'd I do?

Postby Meddler » Fri Mar 27, 2009 2:18 pm

Okay, so I just did my first ever live draft (I did an autodraft once before in 2007 and hated it, but won the league anyway, pretty much on the back of FA pickups and subsequent breakouts of Ryan Braun and B.J. Upton alone). Its a funky league, Yahoo 12 team 10x10 roto with these scoring categories:

Hitters: R, H, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, SB, BB, K, OPS
Pitchers: IP, W, L, SV, BB, K, ERA, WHIP, K/BB, K/9

I picked 4th overall. Also keep in mind the league was organized on a Mets blog so its a group of Mets fans (someone took Daniel Murphy in, in case your wondering how I pulled off a few bargains on Yankees/Phillies players (they're smart baseball people, but still, some bargains fell that I couldn't pass up).


Here's my team (round selected in parenthesis) [additional positions available in brackets]:

C - Mike Napoli (10)
1B - Adam Dunn (6) [OF] (honestly, I didn't even realize Ks were a batting category until after this pick, which was dumb I know)
2B - Brandon Phillips (3)
SS - Alexi Ramirez (4) [2B, OF]
3B - David Wright (1)
OF - Corey Hart (7)
OF - Bobby Abreu (8)
OF - Lastings Milledge (11)
DH - Jayson Werth (14)
BN - Derek Jeter (16)
BN - Tori Hunter (17)
BN - A.J. Pierzynski (18)
BN - Billy Butler (19)

SP - Tim Lincecum (2)
SP - Cole Hamels (5)
RP - Carlos Marmol (9)
RP - Kerry Wood (12)
P - Adam Wainwright (13)
P - Ted Lilly (15)
P - Troy Percival (20)

So how'd I do? Jeter was kind of an ongoing joke in the chat box, hanging around until the 16th when I finally swallowed my Mets pride and got him. He's actually a nice little insurance policy, both for Alexei and because of Alexei's positional versatility. Cole Hamels was also just way too tempting hanging around in the 5th, even though I already had an elite ace in Lincecum. I feel like I've got the SP market pretty well cornered, Lilly was a bargain I was targeting the whole way, and if Marmol wins the closer job (which he certainly should), I'm in great shape in just about every pitching category. With a little luck (health) I should completely own Ks, WHIP, K/9, ERA, and K/BB and there's no reason I shouldn't be in great shape in IP, W, L, SV, and BB.

I'm not quite as strong on the positional side, but I like my core. I had no problem taking David Wright with the 4th pick, after Hanley, Reyes, and Pujols were off the board. Combined with Brandon Phillips, I felt I had a lot of versatility (in terms of production) going into the middle rounds. I don't have any speed demons, but seven of my current starters should be in the 15-30 steal range and then I have Jeter and Hunter on my bench for support (Hunter may wind up in the lineup instead of Milledge for opening day, I haven't decided yet). I felt like there were going to be some real outfield bargains, and I think I took advantage with Abreu, Milledge, Werth, and Hunter. I was targeting a Wieters/Sandoval tandem for C, but I got chopped on both players. I thought Wieters would hang around until at least the 10th, and I was right, but he got picked just before my turn came up. The only guy left on the board worth starting was Napoli, so I had to jump on it. It worked out okay I think, A.J.'s no fantasy stud, but he'll be in there opening day and get plenty of PAs. If Napoli starts the season on the DL, the top five FA catchers are Dioner Navarro, Ramon Hernandez, Jeff Clement, Yadier Molina, and Chris Snyder (pretty much a poor man's Napoli here, without the advantage of getting some DH PAs). I feel like I could use one of those guys to fill in either in my lineup or bench (probably Molina or Snyder).

Really my season may come down to how I handle my surpluses. If I have a big time need, I can dangle one of my aces and still have a solid pitching staff, or I can probably get a nice return on Derek Jeter from someone desperate for a SS.

So what do you think? Did I do good for my first draft?
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Re: First ever live draft, how'd I do?

Postby Robbierob99 » Fri Mar 27, 2009 2:56 pm

C - Mike Napoli (10)
1B - Adam Dunn (6) [OF] (honestly, I didn't even realize Ks were a batting category until after this pick, which was dumb I know)
2B - Brandon Phillips (3)
SS - Alexi Ramirez (4) [2B, OF]
3B - David Wright (1)
OF - Corey Hart (7)
OF - Bobby Abreu (8)
OF - Lastings Milledge (11)
DH - Jayson Werth (14)
BN - Derek Jeter (16)
BN - Tori Hunter (17)
BN - A.J. Pierzynski (18)
BN - Billy Butler (19)

SP - Tim Lincecum (2)
SP - Cole Hamels (5)
RP - Carlos Marmol (9)
RP - Kerry Wood (12)
P - Adam Wainwright (13)
P - Ted Lilly (15)
P - Troy Percival (20)



I love this crap so I'll be as detailed as I can (I'm assuming you're in a 10 team 5x5 league of course):

Let me start with Alexei Ramirez... HUGE upside with last year as the baseline, he's at that prime at of almost 27, to me he's a lock to BreakOUT this year and will go no later than the 3rd round next season, he's that good to me.

Sticking with the age theme, I love COREY HART (even those he likes to have a beer bath with child in lap at press conferences) @ 27y/o. I expect a BIG boost in HRs with only a small decline, if any, in SB. Also should get a nice boost in BA from last year. He was one of the unlucky, Adrian Beltre types with an unusually low .BABIP.

David Wright, #1 pick worthy. Not the biggest fan of his, but there is NO denying his value.
Brandon Phillips. I hope you didn't pay too much for him, but he'll get you 20+ homers.
HUGE upside with Milledge, but I always feel like he's drunk or something. If he applies himself fully, you'll love that pick.

I am not an Abreu fan, his age has not caught up with him yet, but I think it all comes at once - hopefully for you it won't be this year. The good news, I love LAA's potential to score a million runs this year - if he's the same ol Abreu, he'll get his, especially considering what's around him in LAA.

Jeter: Believe it or not, as funny as it sounds, JETER is still top 5 ss - He's a .306 career hitter, and the Yankees should have more offensive output from everywhere this year, I think he has a good year. But NO, I don't like him anymore than you other than that.
DUNN: You know what you're going to get here. A walk, A Strikeout, or a HOMERUN. I'll take that kind of consistency. At least you know your downside. He will hit 40+hr. And for God's sake, he can't strikeout anymore.

I drafted Billy Butler last year, last pick, and think he's got that Sleeper potential, but he seems to lack the Killer Instinct, so I stayed away from him this year.

As for your pitching staff:
Yeah, you got this right.
Not really a sleeper but better than people think = TED LILLY. I watched him 4 times in person late last season and he was consistently hitting 97 (yeah freaking 97mph) on the radar gun. He tends to have one fluke inning in otherwise DOMINATING outings, so I consider him a bit unlucky. After watching him live and in person last year, I think he's potentially an ACE quality guy.

Lincecum = Freak & will be even better than last year (and if the giants can score any runs at all, he could very easily surpass his win total from last year, he's my favorite pitcher in the league)
Hamels = Stud
Marmol = Stud (but I think Gregg steals his closer spot as Pinella knows the value of the setup man and likes Marmol there)
Wood = I happen to think the Cubs were smart to get rid of him, but he'll get his saves. Hope he stays healthy

I like your team quite a bit. I don't see any holes. Very balance, with lots of big upside guys (Phillips, Milledge, Hart especially)
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Re: First ever live draft, how'd I do?

Postby pmatt » Fri Mar 27, 2009 2:58 pm

I personally like R Hernandez over Pierzynski. Ramon was hot in the WBC and he's now hitting in a premier hitters park but that's a personal preference.

If I had your team I'd be concerned about depth at RP. You have two aged/injury risk RP in Percival and Wood and an undeclared Closer in Marmol. Is maybe Jason Motte available off waivers? Not sure who you'd drop though. Might have to work a trade for RP depth.

Help with mine please viewtopic.php?t=374239
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Re: First ever live draft, how'd I do?

Postby Meddler » Fri Mar 27, 2009 4:17 pm

I personally like R Hernandez over Pierzynski. Ramon was hot in the WBC and he's now hitting in a premier hitters park but that's a personal preference.

If I had your team I'd be concerned about depth at RP. You have two aged/injury risk RP in Percival and Wood and an undeclared Closer in Marmol. Is maybe Jason Motte available off waivers? Not sure who you'd drop though. Might have to work a trade for RP depth.


Good point on Hernandez, I wasn't even thinking about the ballpark switch. I may wind up doing that, but I like the depth that got left on the board here. Snyder's underrated and Molina showed signs of breakout last year. One of the reasons I'm eyeing Molina is because he walked more than he struck out last year, and the one offensive category I'm really weak in is Ks. Napoli, Dunn, and Werth are K machines, and although Wright is a stud in every other category, he's also good for 100 Ks. The way it shook out, I kind of regret not taking Brian Roberts in the third instead of Brandon Phillips, but at the time, I liked Phillips current level of multi-category production and upside.

As for RP, that's kind of what I figured going in. Once I got Marmol, I just figured I'd target guys on decent teams who will get their save opportunities. There was a CL rush right before I grabbed Wood. Valverde, Bell, and Ryan all went in the 12th before my pick. Knowing Marmol was iffy for the CL job, I basically had a choice of Wood, Cordero, Capps, or Devine. Devine was tempting (he went with the first pick in the 13th), but Wood's peripherals were actually quite good last year, and assuming the Indians can bridge the gap to him, should get plenty of chances to close games. I don't really like Cordero, and I didn't wanna take Capps because he's a mid-level closer on a bad team. I actually like Wood quite a bit, his health is a bit of a risk, but he was very good last year and his job isn't in any kind of jeopardy.


Motte got grabbed in the 18th, but Kevin Gregg is still out there, so you know I'll be awaiting Pinella's announcement with great attention. But SVs are one of the most difficult categories to predict, and in a 10x10 league, its not quite as important to focus on a category you wind up lacking in if you're good in the other 9. I feel like I'm so strong in the other pitching categories, unless there's an injury, I'm in great shape.

Other interesting RP on the waiver wire: Fernando Rodney, Dan Wheeler (could take Percival's place easily), Chris Perez, George Sherrill, JJ Putz.

I am not an Abreu fan, his age has not caught up with him yet, but I think it all comes at once - hopefully for you it won't be this year. The good news, I love LAA's potential to score a million runs this year - if he's the same ol Abreu, he'll get his, especially considering what's around him in LAA.

Jeter: Believe it or not, as funny as it sounds, JETER is still top 5 ss - He's a .306 career hitter, and the Yankees should have more offensive output from everywhere this year, I think he has a good year. But NO, I don't like him anymore than you other than that.
DUNN: You know what you're going to get here. A walk, A Strikeout, or a HOMERUN. I'll take that kind of consistency. At least you know your downside. He will hit 40+hr. And for God's sake, he can't strikeout anymore.

I drafted Billy Butler last year, last pick, and think he's got that Sleeper potential, but he seems to lack the Killer Instinct, so I stayed away from him this year.


Yeah, since its a 10x10 league Abreu has a bit more value, but I like the balance of my outfield. There's risk in Abreu, uspide in Milledge, but lots of security there with Hunter and I really like Werth as a sleeper.

As for Jeter, agreed, its really unfair that I got him in the 16th. Mets fans hate him though. In terms of allegiances and fantasy, I'd much rather have Jeter than a Philly player though. I don't HAVE to root against Jeter if I want the Mets to do well, lol. Seriously though, with Alexei's positional versatility, Jeter has extra value for me. If I have a problem with Phillips, I can slide Alexei over and insert Jeter and lose very little overall. If Jeter and Alexei both outperform one of my starting OFers, I could put Alexei out there and start Jeter at SS. Its a nice bit of flexibility.

Like the OF situation, Dunn and Butler are meant to be a tandem. I know what I'm buying with Dunn. Butler probably has the upside to have all of Dunn's strengths and much fewer weaknesses. If not, oh well, I got a busted 19th round pick. No biggie.

As for your pitching staff:
Yeah, you got this right.
Not really a sleeper but better than people think = TED LILLY. I watched him 4 times in person late last season and he was consistently hitting 97 (yeah freaking 97mph) on the radar gun. He tends to have one fluke inning in otherwise DOMINATING outings, so I consider him a bit unlucky. After watching him live and in person last year, I think he's potentially an ACE quality guy.

Lincecum = Freak & will be even better than last year (and if the giants can score any runs at all, he could very easily surpass his win total from last year, he's my favorite pitcher in the league)
Hamels = Stud
Marmol = Stud (but I think Gregg steals his closer spot as Pinella knows the value of the setup man and likes Marmol there)
Wood = I happen to think the Cubs were smart to get rid of him, but he'll get his saves. Hope he stays healthy


Definitely agreed. CC and Santana went before Lincecum, which was fine, because in a 10 category league I actually thought Lincecum might take over the top pitcher slot. He was my second round target and I was happy to get with the 21st overall pick.

I could have possibly waited a round on Lilly, but I didn't want to risk it, he was a great bargain in the 15th. He's solid-very good across the board. Getting Hamels in the 5th was a steal, he and Lilly would make a good #1 and #2, but they're my #2 and #3 behind Lincecum. It just makes my pitching an absolute force. There's some risk in both Lincecum and Hamels, but even if just one of them stays healthy I should be fine. The highest WHIP any of my pitchers had last year was 1.23. The lowest K/9 I have from last year is Wainwright's 6.20, and I have three guys who were over 10.00 (Lincecum, Marmol, Wood).

I like your team quite a bit. I don't see any holes. Very balance, with lots of big upside guys (Phillips, Milledge, Hart especially)


Thanks. I think I'm in pretty good shape. I have lots of multi-category players, plenty of upside, and enough surpluses to make some trades if it comes to it. Like I said, my one big regret is taking Phillips over Roberts in the third round. The way the draft went, I decided it was between those two here. I felt there were more nice mid-round SS than 2B, and knowing I'd have to wait 17 picks before my next selection, I wanted to make sure I got some positional scarcity. Phillips would have been the better choice if I wound up with Jose Reyes in the first round instead of David Wright, but he got taken in the first three picks (with the 4th overall pick, I was pretty sure I was getting one of the two, with Pujols and Hanley going in the top three as well). Roberts would have been a better compliment to Wright, and as it turns out the rest of my roster as well. I have a surplus on power, and though I'm okay on speed, the extra steals from Roberts along with walks, lack of Ks, and avg would have fit better with guys like Dunn and Napoli than Phillips' power/speed/upside combo.
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Re: First ever live draft, how'd I do?

Postby Meddler » Fri Mar 27, 2009 4:19 pm

(I'm assuming you're in a 10 team 5x5 league of course)


Also, its not. Its 10x10 and 12 teams like I said. I guess it looks even better if you were analyzing it as a 10 team league, the two extra teams thin things out more, but I missed the boat on a couple of the extra offensive categories, most notably, Ks.
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Re: First ever live draft, how'd I do?

Postby Robbierob99 » Fri Mar 27, 2009 4:25 pm

Meddler wrote:
(I'm assuming you're in a 10 team 5x5 league of course)


Also, its not. Its 10x10 and 12 teams like I said. I guess it looks even better if you were analyzing it as a 10 team league, the two extra teams thin things out more, but I missed the boat on a couple of the extra offensive categories, most notably, Ks.


Dude considering that, you're a lock for a playoff spot based on pitching alone.
Wow, you had an incredible draft.

However, I fully agree with you on Roberts vs. Phillips (i'm just not a BPhil fan at all).
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Re: First ever live draft, how'd I do?

Postby Meddler » Fri Mar 27, 2009 7:14 pm

:) that's definitely the hope, I was completely stoked about how my pitching turned out. Especially with Gregg still out there, otherwise I'd be a little concerned about RP, but I can always pick him up over Percy if I have to.
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Re: First ever live draft, how'd I do?

Postby Meddler » Sat Mar 28, 2009 2:53 am

David Wright, #1 pick worthy. Not the biggest fan of his, but there is NO denying his value.


Oh, and how can you not be a D-Wright fan? I mean, unless you're a hardcore Phillies fan, what is there not to like? How many 26 year olds do you know of who have four full season under their belt and never hit below .302, had an OBP below .381, SLG below .523, fewer than 102 RBI, 96 R, 26 HR, 40 2B, 15 SB, etc. I mean, that's the lowest he's done in all those categories (excluding his first half-season in 2004). He's as close as you can get to being a lock for at least .300 / .380 / .520. And he even plays good defense. Seriously, whats not to like?
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Re: First ever live draft, how'd I do?

Postby Meddler » Mon Mar 30, 2009 11:03 pm

Okay, apparently I miscalculated the Cubs closer situation. Fortunately Kevin Gregg was still available after going undrafted. I swapped him for Percival on my roster, but this does complicate things a bit. Here's the roster now:


C - Mike Napoli (10)
1B - Adam Dunn (6) [OF]
2B - Brandon Phillips (3)
SS - Alexi Ramirez (4) [2B, OF]
3B - David Wright (1)
OF - Corey Hart (7)
OF - Bobby Abreu (8)
OF - Lastings Milledge (11)
DH - Jayson Werth (14)
BN - Derek Jeter (16)
BN - Tori Hunter (17)
BN - A.J. Pierzynski (18)
BN - Billy Butler (19)

SP - Tim Lincecum (2)
SP - Cole Hamels (5)
RP - Kerry Wood (12)
RP - Kevin Gregg (N/A)
P - Adam Wainwright (13)
P - Ted Lilly (15)
P - Carlos Marmol (9)

I decided to hold onto Marmol for now, but I'm not sure how I'm going to handle this. The only closers available right now are Fernando Rodney and Troy Percival. I feel like, for the time being, I can live with Wood and Gregg. On days the Indians are off I could start Marmol and let him pad some of my other pitching stats. The other option I might have is pick up a 5th starter and pray Wood and Gregg stay healthy and effective. There are some interesting SP available: Jered Weaver, Gavin Floyd, and Jair Jurrjens are the top three SP left ranked by Yahoo, but a bit further down the list there are a couple interesting sleepers like Manny Parra, Wandy Rodriguez, and Kenshin Kawakami. I doubt I wind up going this route, but if both my closers get off to a good start and one of those guys does too, I might take the risk.

Also, James Loney was put on waivers. I kind of want to stick with Butler for my #2 first baseman though. He's having a much better spring, had a similar year last year, and has a similar set of skills in place to what Loney has flashed in the recent past, and I think the fact that Butler's two years younger gives him a bit more upside. Anyone have any thoughts on this? I know Loney was better before 2008, but otherwise is there something I'm missing here?
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