Just wanted to post 3 overrated and 3 underrated pitchers I feel aren't being valued the way they should be and get some thoughts:
Kuroda: Groundball pitcher, huge park, great all around stats minus K's in his first MLB year. I'm not sure why this guy is going so late, I see him going something like 16 W, 3.20 ERA, 1.30 ERA, 150 K's this year. Solid value for where he is being drafted.
Scherzer: His K/9 is over 10 which is ridiculous for a rookie pitcher. The Baby Backs offense is getting better and better and he is the #3 so he'll rarely go against aces. His shoulder worries me a little bit because of the violent delivery but until I see significant signs of it being problematic I think this guy is undervalued.
Kershaw: Has absolutely tremendous Upside, can serve as a good #2 as early as this year. Should have a K/9 beetter than 9 this year. Like Kuroda, good offense, big ballpark, this guy is being taken in the 13th in the last mock I did. Why?
Honorable mentions: Verlander
Sabathia: I'm a Yanks fan but this guy has been overworked and is moving to the AL East. I expect a spike in ERA to around 3.60 as well as a possible injury because of the hefty amount of innings he pitched last year. Still a very good pitcher, just don't see him as the clear cut #3 behind Timmy and Santana, safer bets are Webb, Halladay, etc.
Volquez: Got deadarm at the end of last year, Dusty overworked this guy while he is still young and learning, extremely violent delivery. All signs point to injury and regression.
Peavy: Injuries always a problem. Growing concerns with clubhouse environment, his some/away splits are ugly. If he gets traded his stats will spike badly. Great pitcher, but falling out of the top 10 very soon for me.
Sean Tracey has my apologies, we all know Ozzie Guillen is an idiot. I'm rooting for you!
Good thread...Totally agree about Volquez.....I watched Dusty destroy the arms of 2 pitchers in Chicago and the sooner that guy gets it though his head that young arms need to be coddled, the better. Living outside of Tampa now, its amazing to see how they are treating Price the exact opposite and want to limit his innings in April/May to avoid overworking his arm. He'll prob pitch 150-160 innings this year and wont see 200 for 2 yrs. As a fan you want to see him out there....but the longterm approach understands that this guy will be a Superstar...
i would strongly agree with the underrated guys....kuroda and kershaw. scherzer, not so much. he's dealing with injury issues and has looked horrible this spring. his innings will be much more limited that the aforementioned dodgers but he's got the potential to be a fantasy number 2 or 3 but could end up on waiver wires if he continues his spring troubles into the season...already expected to miss his first start of the season.
i strongly agree again with CC (although it pains me to say that as a yanks fan) and volquez. the brewers absolutely destroyed CC's arm last year and you have to believe he'll eventually show some signs of fatigue, if he doesnt, he should be up there as one of the toughest pitchers in the bigs. i strongly, strongly disagree with the assessment of peavy. yes he had injury issues with his shoulder and elbow last year, but if those issues are behind him, then he is in for a monster year. the notion that he will be terrible in any other park is a simply a myth. his home/away split stats were off last year, yes i'll agree with that, but those stats could have also been effected by his injuries. IF his injuries are behind him, then i think he will make a run at the NL cy young again. take a look at these splits and you can make your own assessments.
08 home 1.74 ERA .97 WHIP away 4.28 1.45 173 Innings pitched 07 home 2.51 ERA 1.07 WHIP away 2.57 1.05 223 innings pitched (NL cy young award winner) 06 home 3.75 1.15 away 4.57 1.35 202 IP 05 home 2.81 .99 away 2.98 1.12 203 IP 04 home 2.21 1.21 away 2.33 1.19 166 IP
PETCO definately helps peavy, it would help any pitcher, but the numbers are too inconsistent to derive a conclusion that PETCO makes peavy the top pitcher that he is, and that he would be a top 5-10 pitcher if he left to a contender. but theres the possibility that peavy could be traded to the dodgers midseason if they need a pitcher, and dodgers stadium is just as much pitcher friendly as petco, so ignoring peavy this year might not be the best strategy.
I like Kuroda, but I think you're overvaluing his potential. He was also one of the more inconsistent pitchers start to start and I think the flyball rate will correct a bit. He's one of those pitchers who plays better in roto than in H2H, given his solid numbers and I think you can expect more of the same as last year.
I also like Scherzer though I believe his innings will be somewhat limited. Personally, I'd temper Kershaw's potential, though it's worthy to note a strong September and a solid showing in Spring thus far (20.2 IP, 3.48 ERA, 20 K, 4 BB). I have no question arguing where Kershaw is going in drafts.
I'm not sure about Sabathia being an injury risk (maybe he's the type of pitcher given his frame who likes eating innings), but I'll agree his stats will take a slip back in the AL. As for Peavy, he's slipping a bit in drafts, and there's potential value if he does throw 200 innings.
It's kinda like the Old Cafe - http://fbc2.freeforums.net
Very solid! One thing on Volquez yeah he isn't going to be the guy from last year but I do feel he is about the right spot to draft him just outside the top 100 I still feel he is a solid number 3 pitcher on a fantasy team.
Given Webb's performance this spring along with his fade down the stretch last summer I'm just curious how he's considered safer than Peavy?
Arizona Diamondbacks SP Brandon Webb allowed four runs on seven hits over four innings Saturday, March 21, against the Kansas City Royals, according to The Associated Press. He walked two and struck out five, and his ERA for the spring rose to 8.18.
--- almost seems to me that you might be better off going after Beckett than either of them two.
I like Kuroda as much as the next guy, and I think he should be rostered in even ten team leagues...but he won't be putting up a 3.2 ERA unless he gets extremely lucky
That said, another season in the 3.8-4.0 range appears likely, with good win totals and a solid WHIP....for where he is going I'd put him on every one of my teams..
Webb is fine...I don't think he turns it on until the Regular season anyway. I remember reading an article about him in SI last year..the guy is just so laid back. He's got incredible sinking stuff that hitters pound into the dirt 65% of the time. He's developed a solid slider and change up that can strike people out. Webb is the man.
I do consider Peavy somewhat of an injury risk, and I do think those injuries are what have negatively impacted his lines in the past (ie, the year he put up the 4+ ERA, and last season)...that said, Peavy is going right around where he should in mixed league drafts..
Sabathia definitely scares me, and he's going too early for me to draft in every league. I figure why be the guy who jumps after Lince/Johan when I can get Webb/Peavy/Hamels/Halladay at least a round or two later...jump on the back of that ace tier if you can. But if you go just on raw statistics and ignore the workload, CC is actually improving yearly. The guy can pitch.
I also am very high on Bedard this season...I think he's a tremendous bet to post a 3.4-3.5 ERA with great K totals and a good WHIP a year after surgery. Overall, he's had a solid spring...and I think people are letting him slip too far in drafts.
Why don't they just get a house that's already painted?
Kuroda went undrafted (and is still on the WW) in my 10 team league. Scherzer got drafted late, but I'm not sold on him in 2009 quite yet.
I would not draft Sabathia this year unless he fell a full two rounds below his ADP. Like others have stated, he's been abused the past two years and when you combine that with his move to the AL East, he numbers can only go one way.
Here are my 3 underrated and 3 overrated:
Underrated: Josh Beckett - He couldn't get healthy at all last year. Finally is healthy and I see him returning to 2007 form. Yovani Gallardo - Could be a huge year for him with a well-rested arm. Love him in '09. Justin Verlander - The talent is there, no question about it. If he can control the walks, could be a steal given where he is getting drafted.
Overrated: CC Sabathia - Already discussed him, I'm avoiding at all costs in '09. Dice-K Matsuzaka - That WHIP is not a good sign. He knows how to pitch out of jams, but it will eventually catch up to him if he doesn't start pouding the zone more. Jon Lester - Had a HUGE increase in innings from '07 to '08. History doesn't bode well for young arms with such a big jump in innings.