Early NFBC ADPs

[Steve-o]

So one of the posters over at another board compiled the ADP for the top 130 players of a few of the NFBC main event drafts. Since these guys are paying real money (my recollection is $1,300) to enter the contest, they generally know what the hell they are doing. When comparing the NFBC results to the other ADP resources, a few guys are sticking out as going too early or going too late. I took the MDP from here.

Guys drafted earlier in NFBC than in other Mocks (NFBC ADP v. MDP)
B.J. Upton (17 v. 27)
Carl Crawford (20 v. 32)
Matt Kemp (26 v. 40)
Jacoby Ellsbury (37 v. 55)
Nate McClouth (44 v. 56)
Corey Hart (50 v. 62)
Rafael Furcal (52 v. 70)
Joey Votto (52 v. 80)
Chad Billingsley (69 v. 82)
Troy Tulowitzki (70 v. 91)
Jay Bruce (76 v. 93)
Jhonny Peralta (85 v. 108)
Yovani Gallardo (91 v. 113)
Javier Vazquez (100 v. 130)
Chris B Young (102 v. 120)
Jayson Werth (103 v. 137)
Nelson Cruz (104 v. 162!!!)
Alex Gordon (127 v. 151)

Guys drafted later in NFBC than in other Mocks (NFBC ADP v. MDP)
Josh Hamilton (13 v. 9)
Carlos Quentin (47 v. 30)
Dan Uggla (74 v. 61)
Magglio Ordonez (76 v. 59)
Adam Dunn (85 v. 64)
Joe Mauer (88 v. 53)
Chipper Jones (91 v. 54)
Aubrey Huff (103 v. 84)
Cliff Lee (117 v. 67)
Carlos Delgado (125 v. 100)

I'd bet that the guys getting drafted later in the NFBC have a better chance of "busting" than the other guys going around those ADPs.

Couple of notes about the NFBC setup. It's 15 team leagues and because it is real dough, injury risk players generally fall. Pitchers also tend to go later, again probably due to injury risk. Also SB are valued a little more highly than in traditional leagues. Finally, it is a two catcher team.

[Tavish]

Since these guys are paying real money (my recollection is $1,300) to enter the contest, they generally know what the hell they are doing.

Or they have more spare money than people who play free Yahoo leagues. Either way works for me.

[kaveman]

Are ADPs from NFBC available from earlier years? Do they actually show that these guys are drafting considerably better than previous years' MDPs?

[Peeig]

Be careful to take into account the structure of the league as well, it might be vastly different than the league you play it and therefore could throw you for a loop when picking your league.

[rookies and cream]

NFBC is getting slower and slower at releasing their ADP data. As such, it was not in the MDP report last year, but I did include it the year before. I had actually just seen this list of 130 before I saw this post and will be including it in the next MDP report. If they release the rest of the ADP data, I will incorporate it into my last MDP update as well.

If anyone is curious, here is the full NFBC list.

http://nfbcboards.stats.com/cgi-bin/ult ... 003851;p=1

[rookies and cream]

Are ADPs from NFBC available from earlier years? Do they actually show that these guys are drafting considerably better than previous years' MDPs?

Yes, ADPs from earlier years are available on their website. I never really looked at last years so I can't answer whether they were considerably different from MDP.

[J35J]

Since these guys are paying real money (my recollection is $1,300) to enter the contest, they generally know what the hell they are doing.

Or they have more spare money than people who play free Yahoo leagues. Either way works for me.

Exactly....i have a buddy who played in the big football one in Las Vegas the last couple years and he's pretty much an idiot.

[Yoda]

The quality of the players should be significantly better than Yahoo Pub players. However, it still doesn't mean that all of them are better than average.

[hot4tx]

IMHO
I'm not surprised by:
Matt Kemp (26 v. 40)
Nate McClouth (44 v. 56)
Corey Hart (50 v. 62)
Joey Votto (52 v. 80)
Chad Billingsley (69 v. 82)
Troy Tulowitzki (70 v. 91)
Jay Bruce (76 v. 93)
Jhonny Peralta (85 v. 108)
Yovani Gallardo (91 v. 113)
Chris B Young (102 v. 120)
Jayson Werth (103 v. 137)
Nelson Cruz (104 v. 162!!!)

Josh Hamilton (13 v. 9)
Carlos Quentin (47 v. 30)
Dan Uggla (74 v. 61)
Magglio Ordonez (76 v. 59)
Adam Dunn (85 v. 64)
Joe Mauer (88 v. 53)
Aubrey Huff (103 v. 84)
Cliff Lee (117 v. 67)
Carlos Delgado (125 v. 100)


I am surprised by:
B.J. Upton (17 v. 27)
Carl Crawford (20 v. 32)
Jacoby Ellsbury (37 v. 55)
Rafael Furcal (52 v. 70)
Javier Vazquez (100 v. 130)
Alex Gordon (127 v. 151)

Chipper Jones (91 v. 54)