I recall a fantasy football league I was in a few years back....I told everybody at the draft with the #2 overall pick, that I was taking Tony Gonzalez if LT was off the board #1
Sure enough, LT went......I grabbed Tony..I won the league...and I understand, fant. football is a toddler's game compared to fantasy baseball..
But the point is...if you draft production at every point in the draft, and you minimize the amount of overall disappointments on your team...you'll be right there...
This whole notion of drafting 7 Hitters in the first 10 rounds...waiting on starting pitching...waiting on catchers till Benjie in Round 20...all these strategies...why?
There's a hundred baseball strategies that will win leagues every year....so many combinations...hundreds of ways to contruct winning teams..
In roto, a single pitching cat is worth just as much as a single hitting cat? So why are pitchers downgraded? Well obviously it's because of their injury risk...its not because what they do is less valuable...
But that goes back to the whole idea. Draft Production. if you're concerned that that production might not be there...you might take less production to secure the production being there...
McCann's ADP indicates where the average fantasy owner thinks he should go. There is a certain amount of production that is associated with that ADP. So if you agree with that production value, taking him there is simply not a mistake. If you think the production will be higher than the "consensus line", taking him earlier is not a mistake (unless of course you were wrong in your production assumptions)
And they say most projection systems will be lucky to have a 70% success rate...30% error...that sucks. What does that mean? In your draft, if everybody drafted solely off ADPs and the whole talent pool was off by 30% one way or the other OVERALL....the winning team without waiver wire and trades would be the one that had the error mostly in their favor. That's just a stone cold fact, if you assume that ADPs are formed by these consensus projection systems..which isn't a very bad assumption.
Just draft production..any way you can..and you'll be fine.
Why don't they just get a house that's already painted?