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Catcher article

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Re: Catcher article

Postby jcook3127 » Wed Mar 25, 2009 1:57 am

I recall a fantasy football league I was in a few years back....I told everybody at the draft with the #2 overall pick, that I was taking Tony Gonzalez if LT was off the board #1

Sure enough, LT went......I grabbed Tony..I won the league...and I understand, fant. football is a toddler's game compared to fantasy baseball..

But the point is...if you draft production at every point in the draft, and you minimize the amount of overall disappointments on your team...you'll be right there...

This whole notion of drafting 7 Hitters in the first 10 rounds...waiting on starting pitching...waiting on catchers till Benjie in Round 20...all these strategies...why?

There's a hundred baseball strategies that will win leagues every year....so many combinations...hundreds of ways to contruct winning teams..

In roto, a single pitching cat is worth just as much as a single hitting cat? So why are pitchers downgraded? Well obviously it's because of their injury risk...its not because what they do is less valuable...

But that goes back to the whole idea. Draft Production. if you're concerned that that production might not be there...you might take less production to secure the production being there...

McCann's ADP indicates where the average fantasy owner thinks he should go. There is a certain amount of production that is associated with that ADP. So if you agree with that production value, taking him there is simply not a mistake. If you think the production will be higher than the "consensus line", taking him earlier is not a mistake (unless of course you were wrong in your production assumptions)

And they say most projection systems will be lucky to have a 70% success rate...30% error...that sucks. What does that mean? In your draft, if everybody drafted solely off ADPs and the whole talent pool was off by 30% one way or the other OVERALL....the winning team without waiver wire and trades would be the one that had the error mostly in their favor. That's just a stone cold fact, if you assume that ADPs are formed by these consensus projection systems..which isn't a very bad assumption.

Just draft production..any way you can..and you'll be fine.
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Re: Catcher article

Postby Inukchuk » Wed Mar 25, 2009 7:25 am

silverZ wrote:I'm happy grabbing Navarro in the 2nd last round. Martin and Mccain are for suckers.


I'm guessing you voted Obama? ;-)
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Re: Catcher article

Postby Matthias » Wed Mar 25, 2009 1:25 pm

Roto Rebel just blew a whole lot of words to say, "Hey! I just discovered the concept of VORP!"
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Re: Catcher article

Postby Polar Bear » Wed Mar 25, 2009 2:19 pm

All I want is a Catcher that doesn't hurt me.

I have been drafting Navarro and Sandoval this year because they come to me late and will hit a decent AVG. I don't expect much from a catcher, just don't kill me in AVG and I am fine with it.
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Re: Catcher article

Postby Maris09 » Wed Mar 25, 2009 6:52 pm

jcook3127 wrote: I recall a fantasy football league I was in a few years back....I told everybody at the draft with the #2 overall pick, that I was taking Tony Gonzalez if LT was off the board #1

Sure enough, LT went......I grabbed Tony..I won the league...and I understand, fant. football is a toddler's game compared to fantasy baseball..

:-o

jcook3127 wrote:But the point is...if you draft production at every point in the draft, and you minimize the amount of overall disappointments on your team...you'll be right there...

That statement...and drafting a TE with the 2nd Overall pick...are not the same things.
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Re: Catcher article

Postby slappinSingles » Wed Mar 25, 2009 8:33 pm

isn't that math off a little bit for the averages, not that big of deal i guess but a Catcher is going to usually have a lot less of at bats so you can't just simply add the 2 numbers and average them out. Your position player's avg is going to be weighted a lot more. Kinda like taking a relief pitchers era and a starting pitchers era and just doing an average of the two, doesn't give you your real number.
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Re: Catcher article

Postby Matthias » Thu Mar 26, 2009 12:17 pm

slappinSingles wrote:isn't that math off a little bit for the averages, not that big of deal i guess but a Catcher is going to usually have a lot less of at bats so you can't just simply add the 2 numbers and average them out. Your position player's avg is going to be weighted a lot more. Kinda like taking a relief pitchers era and a starting pitchers era and just doing an average of the two, doesn't give you your real number.

Ah, that's how it works in most fantasy leagues.

But in Roto Rebel leagues, you just add up the averages and average that!
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Re: Catcher article

Postby CubsFan7724 » Thu Mar 26, 2009 2:11 pm

Pitching is taken later not only because of injury scares, but also because it's easier to find good SP throughout the season off the wire than it is to find good hitting.
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Re: Catcher article

Postby great gretzky » Thu Mar 26, 2009 3:17 pm

CubsFan7724 wrote:Pitching is taken later not only because of injury scares, but also because it's easier to find good SP throughout the season off the wire than it is to find good hitting.


I thought that is part of the "volatility" argument.
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Re: Catcher article

Postby silverZ » Thu Mar 26, 2009 5:57 pm

Inukchuk wrote:
silverZ wrote:I'm happy grabbing Navarro in the 2nd last round. Martin and Mccain are for suckers.


I'm guessing you voted Obama? ;-)


I would have if I was american. But that's a whole other thread.
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