WBC: Japan vs. Korea Final

[BitterDodgerFan]

well to his credit the pitcher made good pitches against ichiro until the fat one down the middle. i also thought CY lim's leash was too long.

[mweir145]

An article on the topic: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... lk-part-1/

[DVauthrin]

Steve Phillips thinks they should walk the bases loaded...and now Morgan joins in...

when the game is on the line and you are facing one of the best hitters in his generation, you make somebody else beat you. korea played with fire and got burned. they had an open base and a significantly weaker hitter behind him.

Obviously that doesn't guarantee you get the next guy, but you are playing the odds.

I've always hated walking the bases loaded. Too many bad things can happen to score that run when you do, and the pressure is immediately placed on the pitcher. If it is a control guy pitching, though, it's not a bad move.

In most situations I agree with you, but with a great hitter up there and the game on the line, it's a no brainer to me. Plus if you aren't comfortable with your pitcher in a pressure situation, he shouldn't have been in a tie game in extra innings anyway.

[DVauthrin]

An article on the topic: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... lk-part-1/

In that article they address the situation you saw in the game:

In The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball, co-authored by yours truly, Tom Tango and Andrew Dolphin, we state that, generally, an intentional walk is a poor strategy, other than perhaps with two outs, runners on second and third, and an unprotected elite hitter at the plate.

the runners were in those spots(though i think it was the proper move even if iwamura never takes second) and ichiro is the unprotected elite hitter.

[mweir145]

There are valid arguments on both sides, but I'm not sure I would do it. Ichiro isn't exactly an elite hitter anymore (.747 OPS last season), and after the intentional walk, the run expectancy for Japan goes up.

[mweir145]

Here is the hitter after him, Nakajima: http://japanesebaseball.com/players/pla ... yerID=1371

This guy is also a very good hitter (.331/.410/.527 in 2008).

[DVauthrin]

There are valid arguments on both sides, but I'm not sure I would do it. Ichiro isn't exactly an elite hitter anymore (.747 OPS last season), and after the intentional walk, the run expectancy for Japan goes up.

OPS is a nice stat, but it goes out the window in a situation where a single costs you two runs. Ichiro is not an elite power hitter, but he is an elite contact hitter. This is still the same guy who has yet to have a major league season with fewer than 200 hits or an average under .300.

I did not know that about the next guy(information appreciated), but it would still have been righty on righty and the track record of ichiro is well documented. Plus Ichiro can get a hit with his legs very easily, which we don't know about the guy behind him.

[ayebatter]

After Ichiro fouled off that cricket pitch in the dirt I knew he was dialed in, they should have put him on after that pitch.

[mweir145]

There are valid arguments on both sides, but I'm not sure I would do it. Ichiro isn't exactly an elite hitter anymore (.747 OPS last season), and after the intentional walk, the run expectancy for Japan goes up.

OPS is a nice stat, but it goes out the window in a situation where a single costs you two runs. Ichiro is not an elite power hitter, but he is one of the best contact hitters around. This is still the same guy who has yet to have a major league season with fewer than 200 hits or a .300 average.

Indeed, it seems logical enough, but it isn't the percentage play, especially with another good hitter coming up behind him.

I've also had too many bad experiences with my favourite team walking the bases loaded, so I'm very hesitant here.

[DVauthrin]

There are valid arguments on both sides, but I'm not sure I would do it. Ichiro isn't exactly an elite hitter anymore (.747 OPS last season), and after the intentional walk, the run expectancy for Japan goes up.

OPS is a nice stat, but it goes out the window in a situation where a single costs you two runs. Ichiro is not an elite power hitter, but he is one of the best contact hitters around. This is still the same guy who has yet to have a major league season with fewer than 200 hits or a .300 average.

Indeed, it seems logical enough, but it isn't the percentage play, especially with another good hitter coming up behind him.

I've also had too many bad experiences with my favourite team walking the bases loaded, so I'm very hesitant here.

Fair enough, we agree to disagree, no big deal. It's far more defensible than the U.S. decision to play Derek Jeter at SS and Rollins at DH in big games.