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Barring Injuries, I'll go undefeated 5X5...u agree?

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Re: Barring Injuries, I'll go undefeated 5X5...u agree?

Postby raysfan4life » Wed Apr 01, 2009 6:39 pm

hawaiistfball wrote:I also tried your strategy but focused on getting just RPs. I am thinking that each week that I will have R, SB, AVG, S, ERA, WHIP on lock down. I may have a chance to win maybe RBI or W depending on the week.

C Bengie Molina, C
1B Mark Teixeira, 1B
2B Placido Polanco, 2B
3B Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
SS Jhonny Peralta, SS
2B/SS Mike Aviles, 2B, SS
1B/3B Justin Morneau, 1B
OF Ichiro Suzuki, OF
OF Carl Crawford, OF
OF Jacoby Ellsbury, OF
OF Cameron Maybin, OF
OF Shin-Soo Choo, OF
UTIL Orlando Cabrera, SS
Bench Randy Winn, OF

P Jonathan Papelbon, RP
P Joe Nathan, RP
P Brad Lidge, RP
P Jose Valverde, RP
P Kerry Wood, RP
P Matt Capps, RP
P Francisco Cordero, RP
P Brian Wilson, RP
P Joey Devine, RP
Bench Matt Lindstrom, RP
Bench J.J. Putz, RP


Great relievers - you should be guaranteed WHIP, ERA, and Saves, and compete in K's and even W's once in a while
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Re: Barring Injuries, I'll go undefeated 5X5...u agree?

Postby raysfan4life » Wed Apr 01, 2009 6:43 pm

Jetsfan wrote:Well...I have been keeping tabs on this post since it started and this strategy was very intriguing to me so I decided to utilize it in my draft last night. However, I did a few things differently....I made sure my pitching was taken care of in the first 3-4 rounds of the draft, got SB's and AVG covered for the most part. Absolutely no power or RBI wins in sight though...


C Víctor Martínez
1B James Loney
2B Kazuo Matsui
3B Chone Figgins
SS Ryan Theriot
OF Matt Kemp
OF Lastings Milledge
OF Johnny Damon
Util Jayson Werth
BN Cameron Maybin
BN Juan Pierre
BN Travis Ishikawa


SP Johan Santana
SP Tim Lincecum
RP Mariano Rivera
RP Brad Lidge
P Brandon Webb
P Jonathan Broxton
P Zack Greinke
BN Chris Carpenter
BN Tommy Hanson


Personally I think this strategy has a serious chance....but then again, I only tested this in a public league.


Did you clean up vs. everyone else in SBs? Team looks damn good. Gotta tell you, there is a rush in trying to do this in a private or pay league where everyone either knows you or is taking it real serious. People in my two leagues actually got pissed once I announced what I was doing - don't know why they're mad, but it must mean they see this strategy as a threat.
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Re: Barring Injuries, I'll go undefeated 5X5...u agree?

Postby raysfan4life » Wed Apr 01, 2009 7:14 pm

Tarquin wrote:I think the general consensus is that on a week-to-week basis in Head-To-Head, Pitching categories in general are less consistent than hitting categories, and SB's/AVG are less consistent than HR's, RBI, Runs.

Assume the average stolen bases in your league are 6 and the average homeruns in your league are 10 (Per week per team). Assume that in any given week, stolen bases can vary as much as 66% above or below your team average, while homeruns can vary as much as 33% above or below your team average.

So average team range: 2-10 stolen bases, 6.66 - 13.33 homeruns (the average team in the league will get between these values on a week-to-week basis)
If you dominate SB's (1.5 times the league average): SB range 3 - 15 stolen bases
If you dominate HR's (1.5 times the league average): HR range 10 - 20 Home Runs

There is much greater overlap between the average stolen base team and the dominating stolen base team compared to the homerun teams. What this means if that if you dominate stolen bases there is a greater chance you will lose that category anyways compared to if you dominate homeruns. Thus to guarantee winning stolen bases you have to get more than 1.5 times the league average (dominate by more).

Obviously this is simplified and it assumes that dominating homeruns is as easy or as hard as dominating SB's, but in general I want to show why trying to be around the league average in less consistent categories and dominating more consistent categories is a better strategy than the opposite in my opinion.


I agree with the position that I have tried to leverage what are in essence the least consistent categories, which is why I chose them. By that I don't mean that I wanted to choose inconsistent categories, but rther that everyone else neglects these categories because they are inconsistent, and focuses on the more consistent categories.

What I've tried to do to offset those inconsistent results is create the 1.5 (or 50% greater) gap between myself and most of the other teams. Since this was done in ESPN, I'll use their projections (even though we all know their projected stats leave something to be desired):

My team SBs - 278

Others SBs -
197 (41% better)
144 (93% better)
163 (71% better)
190 (46% better)
161 (73% better)
194 (43% better)
113 (146% better)
293 (6% worse)
124 (124% better)

So, there is really only one team that can compete with me. So, I'll have to beat him in pitching. Here are the pitching projections:

IP H ER BB K W SV ERA WHIP
St. Pete Punch n Bags 2079.9 1816 739 607 1884 148 141 3.20 1.23
In it to Win it 1362.7 1230 529 488 1218 95 126 3.49 1.29
Team Babin 1259.7 1202 512 416 1072 82 46 3.66 1.36
The Big Daddies 1264.5 1111 500 422 1196 92 75 3.56 1.27
44 Bulldawgs 1571.4 1477 661 518 1451 109 101 3.79 1.36
simi valley 1422.3 1298 544 425 1273 101 81 3.44 1.30
OC Stickballers 1452.9 1369 634 516 1344 98 110 3.93 1.38
Stoney Smurfs 1342.9 1219 567 531 1112 80 105 3.80 1.33
Hollywood Underground 753.7 736 302 261 584 48 155 3.61 1.38
California Gold E 1610.7 1600 670 464 1303 107 104 3.74 1.41

So, as you can see, the only real challenge I'm going to have is from HOllywood Underground, who I must say incorporated the only strategy that can match me (in my opinion) - SB's and Saves, and he'll beat me in the other offensive categories.

Other than that team, I feel pretty confident I've got a significant advantage over all the other competition.
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Re: Barring Injuries, I'll go undefeated 5X5...u agree?

Postby raysfan4life » Wed Apr 01, 2009 7:18 pm

Sorry, didn't realize yellow highlight sucked so bad:

IP H ER BB K W SV ERA WHIP
St. Pete Punch n Bags 2079.9 1816 739 607 1884 148 141 3.20 1.23In it to Win it 1362.7 1230 529 488 1218 95 126 3.49 1.29
Team Babin 1259.7 1202 512 416 1072 82 46 3.66 1.36
The Big Daddies 1264.5 1111 500 422 1196 92 75 3.56 1.27
44 Bulldawgs 1571.4 1477 661 518 1451 109 101 3.79 1.36
simi valley 1422.3 1298 544 425 1273 101 81 3.44 1.30
OC Stickballers 1452.9 1369 634 516 1344 98 110 3.93 1.38
Stoney Smurfs 1342.9 1219 567 531 1112 80 105 3.80 1.33
Hollywood Underground 753.7 736 302 261 584 48 155 3.61 1.38
California Gold E 1610.7 1600 670 464 1303 107 104 3.74 1.41
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Re: Barring Injuries, I'll go undefeated 5X5...u agree?

Postby raysfan4life » Wed Apr 01, 2009 7:48 pm

Trying to copy and paste stats doesn't exactly work, so here they are in a more clean format:

I understand I have significantly higher IP's than other teams, because I filled my roster with pitchers. I did this for 2 reasons - I want to always run a Quality Starter out whenever posible, even if I have more than 13 starts in a week, I pick the best 13 match-ups, and sit them for the rest. Second, by keeping these good starters on my roster, it's less talent for the other teams to choose from.

So, that means I may not have quite as large a gap as this chart shows in terms of K's and W's, because teams will add and drop SPs based on match-ups, probably adding to their K and W totals. However, this usually comes at a price, and the price in many cases is higher ERA and WHIP.c

Team IP H ER BB K W SV ERA WHIP
St. Pete (Me) 2079 1816 739 607 1884 148 141 3.20 1.23
In it to Win it 1363 1230 539 488 1218 95 126 3.49 1.29
Team Babin 1260 1202 512 416 1072 82 46 3.66 1.36
The Big Daddies 1265 1111 500 422 1196 92 75 3.56 1.27
44 Bulldawgs 1571 1477 661 518 1451 109 101 3.79 1.36
simi valley 1422 1298 544 425 1273 101 81 3.44 1.30
OC Stickballers 1453 1369 634 516 1344 98 110 3.93 1.38
Stoney Smurfs 1343 1219 567 531 1112 80 105 3.80 1.33
Hollywood Underground 754 736 302 261 584 48 155 3.61 1.38
California Golde 1611 1600 670 464 1303 107 104 3.74 1.41

Just to clarify - I traded straight up Chad Billingsley for Brandon Morrow (which is how I got as many saves as I did). In my opinion, Billingsley for Morrow straight up is not a great deal, but Billingsley was arguably my 7th best starter, and I already have a significant edge in W's. I picked up Jeremy Guthrie to replace him. I needed more saves in order to compete in saves against the other top saves teams - especially Hollywood, who has the edge on me in steals also (he's my nemesis).

Good thing about Morrow, if he doesn't remain the closer, he's going back in the rotation, and I have another quality starter, worse case scenario.
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Re: Barring Injuries, I'll go undefeated 5X5...u agree?

Postby raysfan4life » Thu Apr 02, 2009 8:23 pm

Just dropped Alexi Casilla and picked up Jason Bartlett - think it'll add about 10 steals for me.

Just curious - anyone else tried this strategy yet?
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Re: Barring Injuries, I'll go undefeated 5X5...u agree?

Postby raysfan4life » Fri Apr 03, 2009 11:47 am

Just got the first big blow to my strategy. Guy emailed me and said - "What happens if a team starts a closer for an inning, goes 1-2-3, then shuts down his pitching for the rest of the week, ensuring he wins WHIP and ERA".

No minimum IP requirements, so I guess this is possible, huh? Damn, if true, I'm probably done.
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Re: Barring Injuries, I'll go undefeated 5X5...u agree?

Postby raysfan4life » Fri Apr 03, 2009 2:54 pm

O.K., crisis averted...I think.

Guy emailed me and said "What if I run 1 RP out for 1 inning, get a 0.00 WHIP and 0.00 ERA, and then shut down pitching for a week? I just won 2 of the 5 pitching categories."

After playing out his strategy, it is almost impossible to execute. Most teams have at least 3 relievers (most have more). The point is it might be easy to sit SP's, since they have scattered and infrequent starts. But if you have 3 or more RP's, it is alomst impossible to sit all you relievers and any SP's who might be pitching that day, because:

A. There are only three bench posiitions in our league, so if you have 4 or more who pitch, can't do it, and

B. In order for a team to even make those three bench positions available, they have to cut at least 1 (and usually 2 or 3) offensive bench players to strategize against me. If I affect a team to the point they are willing to cut up to 3 players simply because of their match-up against me, then I'l take my chances.

So, in summary, I don't think a team can undermine me by using the "1 IP for the week" strategy. And if for some magical reason they can, then they better hope that appearance gets them a 1-2-3 inning, because they just benched a day's worth of pitching. And if it doesn't work, it will put me in an even stronger position to win pitching.
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Re: Barring Injuries, I'll go undefeated 5X5...u agree?

Postby jnmiller75 » Sat Apr 04, 2009 3:40 am

I have been following this post, and I wish you luck, but I don't think it will work in a H2H league. In a roto league this stategy might make more sense. Even with your stud pitching staff you are assuming if they start they will get always get wins and saves. If several of your starters have a poor outing and lose, or your closers get a blown save, then you could be in trouble. It dosent matter if the team you are playing has lower tier pitchers, they could still beat you if their pitchers get wins and saves that week, while yours didnt.

For example: If Santana and Linecum and Halladay have one start that week and all happen to lose, it dosent matter if the team your playing has say Lackey, Kazmir, and Slowery as their starting pitchers if they all get wins. Im not saying this is always going to happen, but it will happen sometimes. Im just trying to show you a hole in your strategy. This is why I think a strategy like this might make more sense in a roto leauge.

Anyway, good luck. I look forward to seeing how this plays out.
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Re: Barring Injuries, I'll go undefeated 5X5...u agree?

Postby raysfan4life » Sun Apr 05, 2009 4:05 am

jnmiller75 wrote:I have been following this post, and I wish you luck, but I don't think it will work in a H2H league. In a roto league this stategy might make more sense. Even with your stud pitching staff you are assuming if they start they will get always get wins and saves. If several of your starters have a poor outing and lose, or your closers get a blown save, then you could be in trouble. It dosent matter if the team you are playing has lower tier pitchers, they could still beat you if their pitchers get wins and saves that week, while yours didnt.

For example: If Santana and Linecum and Halladay have one start that week and all happen to lose, it dosent matter if the team your playing has say Lackey, Kazmir, and Slowery as their starting pitchers if they all get wins. Im not saying this is always going to happen, but it will happen sometimes. Im just trying to show you a hole in your strategy. This is why I think a strategy like this might make more sense in a roto leauge.

Anyway, good luck. I look forward to seeing how this plays out.


True, and I'm now resigned to the fact that I obviously will not go undefeated. The question now becomes, can I win often enough to make the playoffs? I'm hoping to offset the example you provided with depth of pitching. So, if my 3 aces et 1 start each and all lose, I'll still have 10 more (hopefully) quality starts for the week to make up for it.

But I see what you're saying - it's a lot easier to have inconsistent pitching than hitting. So I'll just have to hope I win those match-ups more often than not.

Thanks for the feedback.
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