I don't see why he would fit into the Zambrano "path" anymore than I could see him fitting into the Clemens path (check out his innings pitched totals when he was 23 to 26).
Well i was saying I think it is more likely that he wears his arm out at a young age than having shoulder or elbow problems because of his delivery, not that he doesn't have a chance to stay healthy.
That is such a 21st century mindset.
Thousands of pitchers have had careers following the normal age curve after throwing 227+ innings. It's less about pitch count and more about mechanics and inherent fragility. Zambrano, for example, has been known to tinker with his mechanics a lot which really messes with his effectiveness, consistency, and ability to revert back to the pitcher he once was. By now, he has a lot of long term wear and tear from his ill-advised experimentation with amateur biomechanics. Harden is just naturally injury prone despite good mechanics and not being used a ton in his youth, as is evidenced by the fact that he can simply turn it on and be extremely effective between injuries.
Lince, on the other hand, has very good mechanics (in case you haven't heard
) and to this point hasn't been injury prone in high school, college, or at the professional level. A high pitch count increase is more dangerous than simply a high pitch count, but Lince has been throwing a ton of pitches all his life, just like the many successful pitchers from the 1970s and before, when guys would just dive in and throw 280+ MLB innings at age 22. Even so, pitch count is only dangerous when compounded with the other two factors and is a much lesser risk by itself. It's the same case with pitchers that rely on breaking pitches, if they throw a lot of curves and have poor mechanics, it compounds the problem. If they throw a lot of curves and have good mechanics, no one is worried about them. Lince isn't a "freak of nature" or "unique" to the history of baseball, and endurance of the nature that many are predicting isn't even close to being unheard of. He's just another run-of-the-mill insanely good pitcher that we see only a couple times in a generation.
Though I do agree that Nolasco is an injury risk. It's not the pitch count that worries me most, it's the fact that he's one year removed from a major elbow injury. He's less of a risk to blow his shoulder out IMO, as the thread is about, but maybe we can expand the topic to elbows too?