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What is your guys opinion's on Ron Shandler?

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What is your guys opinion's on Ron Shandler?

Postby lendog » Sun Mar 22, 2009 9:16 pm

and his book and site? I have bought his book the last 2 years and last year it netted me C.Pena as my 2nd round pick? Not good.Anyway, do any of you use his stuff? Just wondering what you think? Thanks in advance.
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Re: What is your guys opinion's on Ron Shandler?

Postby AussieDodger » Sun Mar 22, 2009 9:23 pm

If you use the numbers in the book to figure out what you want all by yourself, instead of following the projections and little blurbs like a sheep it works much better. ;-D ;-D

Book is also good for identifying injuries at a glance.

Haven't subscribed to the website yet, but I'd like to have a go at some stage this year. :-B
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Re: What is your guys opinion's on Ron Shandler?

Postby Ender » Sun Mar 22, 2009 9:24 pm

I got the book last year and somehow didn't draft Pena in the 2nd round.
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Re: What is your guys opinion's on Ron Shandler?

Postby AussieDodger » Sun Mar 22, 2009 9:28 pm

Ender wrote:I got the book last year and somehow didn't draft Pena in the 2nd round.


LOL me either. :-b

I did end up drafting Kinsler with pick 65/6.05 though :-L
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Re: What is your guys opinion's on Ron Shandler?

Postby BillyHallDisciple » Sun Mar 22, 2009 9:33 pm

I think it's awesome. It's one of my main draft resources. Like any forecaster, he sometimes misreads things but overall the book's got great analysis.

Last year he predicted Pena would go 94-37-107-.266-1. In 2008, Pena actually went 76-31-102-.266-1 and he only had 490 AB due to injury, so the only reason he didn't get more in the counting categories was because of that. And no question I wouldn't have taken Pena that early based on that projection anyways...
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Re: What is your guys opinion's on Ron Shandler?

Postby AcidRock23 » Sun Mar 22, 2009 10:38 pm

I like him pretty well, I targeted Josh Hamilton last year in our keeper league because of his analysis and his suggestion that 'we can't really tell because there's never been a player who sat out and smoked crack for a couple of years, missing out on getting burnt out in the minor leagues' and I think that Hamilton's solid year showed that to be an intelligent way to look at him. I got him for $6 at the auction last year as everyone else bailed out and I think that turned out pretty well? I think that his analytical framework is pretty solid and I also like the way that he's looking at similar #s for pitchers and hitters. I have thought for a while that the acid test of any projections should be if the batters' and pitchers' projections match up? i.e. if BA = BAA then the projections would be 'correct'? I am too lazy to check but sometimes I think that Prospectus' misses out on that since it's 'conservatism' wouldn't make sense since, if all the hitters sucked as much as they project, the pitchers would be smokin' and vice versa?
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Re: What is your guys opinion's on Ron Shandler?

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Mar 22, 2009 11:08 pm

AcidRock23 wrote: I have thought for a while that the acid test of any projections should be if the batters' and pitchers' projections match up? i.e. if BA = BAA then the projections would be 'correct'? I am too lazy to check but sometimes I think that Prospectus' misses out on that since it's 'conservatism' wouldn't make sense since, if all the hitters sucked as much as they project, the pitchers would be smokin' and vice versa?


I wouldn't call that an acid test, as much as a basic consistency test. And my understanding is that all the good systems, include BP do that.
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Re: What is your guys opinion's on Ron Shandler?

Postby BillyHallDisciple » Sun Mar 22, 2009 11:08 pm

His book is also extremely helpful for looking up 2nd-half stats to get a read on how a player has specifically improved. You can break it down by seeing not only how much his HR/RBI's increased, but also for such things as walk rate and grounder/flyball/line-drive ratios. I find that very handy, I think it gives you a bit of an edge to know who was hottest in the second-half last year.
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Re: What is your guys opinion's on Ron Shandler?

Postby Ender » Sun Mar 22, 2009 11:09 pm

Since my original post was kind of snarky I'll add my real opinion~. I like the different direction he takes in his projections, really trying to look at the underlying theme behind why a player puts up the stats he does instead of just regression off of 3 year averages and sim scores. I am sometimes baffled by the statlines he pumps out given the numbers he comes up with, it doesn't seem very consistent.

I find the book an incredibly useful tool though I wouldn't use it as my only tool. It is a fun read even if you don't care about it from a fantasy angle in my opinion. I have never spent the cash to check out his full site though.
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Re: What is your guys opinion's on Ron Shandler?

Postby lendog » Sun Mar 22, 2009 11:16 pm

Thanks for the replys. I should have told you that i'm in a keeper league and at the time it was between him AND Tulawiskie. i only have for this year and then i'm done with him so he would of hit probaly 40 hr if he was healthy so he maybe he wasn't as bad i though? But boy did he so a lot.
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