Rollin's year last year really hurts his averages. He did play in 132 games, but his numbers really suffered from his injury problems through the year. But before that, he never really had any issues with injuries. He only missed 34 games in the previous 7 seasons combined (about 4.8 games a season).
Runs - Advantage Rollins. Plays in a better offense in a better ball park. Reyes career high is only 122 runs. Rollins averaged 133 Runs the two years before last year. Rollins should score 5-15 more runs than Reyes IMO.
HR - Advantage Rollins. Reyes has never hit 20 HR and the last two years has averaged 14 HR's. Rollins should hit at least 5 more HR, but maybe as many as 10.
RBI- Advantage Rollins. Top to bottom the Phillies have a better offense, which should create more RBI oppurtunties from the 7-9 hitters. Rollins should be good for 10-15 more RBI's.
AVG- Advantage Reyes. Rollins should bat around .280-.290 while Reyes should be around .290-.300.
SB- Advantage Reyes. But these numbers are inflated by Reyes '06 - '07 seasons where he averaged 71 SB. I don't think Reyes will steal more than 60 this year (with the recent talk of him maybe seeing some AB's outside leadoff). That should be only about 10 more SB than Rollins who stole 47 last year in only 132 games.
A healthy Rollins will most likely beat Reyes in R, HR, RBI and I think SB and AVG will be closer than most think. Yet Reyes is drooled over and Rollins is an afterthought. Not to mention the fact that after the top 3 the SS pool becomes pretty thin compared to OF, SP, 1B and even 3B.
ScrappyDoo wrote: I don't think Reyes will steal more than 60 this year (with the recent talk of him maybe seeing some AB's outside leadoff). That should be only about 10 more SB than Rollins who stole 47 last year in only 132 games
FWIW, the experiment with Reyes batting 2nd or 3rd is now over. Manuel came out and said Reyes will be his lead off hitter this week.
I don't think Rollins is quite the afterthought; his MDP has him on average being a late 1st rounder. The good news last year was Rollins cut down on his strikeouts and walked more. His flyball rate normalized, which makes 15-20 HR to be more or less what should be expected of him. I think what makes Reyes go a few spots earlier is he'll post 20 more SB to what Rollins can possibly do.
I got a little flack for suggesting I've got Rollins ranked 8th on my sheet but I think there's a pretty good chance Rollins puts up similar if not better numbers overall numbers than Grady Sizemore who is a consensus 6-8 pick.
One thing I'm not real sure of though, is Rollins a leadoff or #2 hitter in that lineup?
Yea that seems spot on, although the runs might be only +5 to Rollins...Rollins seems like such an unattractive pick at the end of the first and even at the beginning of the second....but he really does have the numbers (and position) to justify this...
Because we all agree Reyes is a first round value (although I don't like to target him)...so, the Runs, HR, and RBI more than make up for the 10 points in average and definitely start to get into the SB gap in terms of comparing value...
So, Reyes is firmly planted as the #4-#7 guy off the boards....well, analyzing the numbers, VALUE WISE, it seems that all that separates these two players is 12-15 Steals...bump Rollins down another 4-7 spots to adjust, and picking him anywhere from 10 to 15 seems to be justified...
Why don't they just get a house that's already painted?
.280 18 hr 120 runs 75 rbi 40 sb....those numbers should be pretty accurate if hes healthy...im not sure if that makes him a late first rounder but i never end up with him on my team and ive drafted in the back end of the 1st round practically in every draft ive been in. im taking howard, utley, kinsler, tex, and hamilton over him.
I'm #10 in ten teamer and I'll be taking some combo of:
I don't want to take Hamilton because most of my sleepers are OF's. So....I'm leaning towards Rollins + 2nd baseman. I feel a bounceback for Rollins coming. He has looked good in the classic. If Reyes is an automatic top 4, I don't see why Rollins isn't an automatic top 10.