RAmst23 wrote:I have a hard time predicting Figgins upcoming season. In 2006 he hits .267 with a BABIP of .307, then the next year he goes crazy and hits .330 with a BABIP of .399 (!). Clearly he's somewhere in the middle, but that's a pretty wide range.
Figgins' BA is the selling point to me. If he hits .280ish, than he's a one cat player and I might as well wait for a Carlos Gomez later in the draft.
Well, given that he's a speedy line drive hitter (23.6 career LD%!), it's no surprise that his career BABIP is .342. His '06 and '07 marks were driven in part by the difference in LD% between the two years, 3% below his career average in '06 to 3% above in '07, explaining about .060 of the .092 swing. No other year besides '06 did he put up a LD% below 22.6%, which by itself predicts a .346 BABIP using the simple LD+.120 formula. His "modest" .333 mark last year was knocked down a bit by his hammy troubles.
As for the second point, he'd be a two-cat player, he'll score 90-110 runs too. Brian Roberts is a consensus 3rd/4th rounder and his last 3 years have been 10.3 HR, 56.5 RBI, and .291 AVG. Roberts' only advantage there is 4-5 HR, while Figgins would chip in an extra 5-15 SB and a bonus position. Given a full season of health (which is what knocks Figgins down a few rounds, obviously), what's the big difference between the two?