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2009 Positional Rankings (Updated 3-27)

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Re: 2009 Positional Rankings are now Available

Postby The Artful Dodger » Tue Mar 17, 2009 3:47 pm

ironman wrote:
The Artful Dodger wrote:Nice rankings, though I find your site more notable for your Huell Howser mentions. :-b


Ha ha! Yes the Huell Howser stuff. We've gotten more hate mail about that then anything else. His fans are very passionate albeit slightly imbalanced. :-b


Really? I make it a point to watch Huell Howser because each time he'll unintentionally make me laugh. There was this one episode recently where Huell visits a Buddhist temple where they're celebrating the 100th birthday of a Bodhi tree. One of the guys Huell interviewed said he used to climb the tree when he was a kid, to which Huell interrupted him and said "You used to climb up this tree!!!???" in the funniest way possible. That guy is truly California's gold. :-b
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Re: 2009 Positional Rankings are now Available

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Tue Mar 17, 2009 8:50 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
activechamp2006 wrote:
Matthias wrote:I hate the options at SS. Reyes and Hanley are great but after them? Ugh. I hate them all.

OF and SP seem deep relative to years past and 2B isn't actually bad.

Carlos Gomez at 49, though? Ugh. You couldn't pay me to take him. I would even rather have Kubel.


really? I actually see him as a pretty good value pick

So do I. If you can stomach a .265 AVG, the guy is capable of giving you 40 SB, 10 HR, 100R, and 65 RBI. I'll happily take that, or a little bit less, in the 17th or so round.

Just picked him up with the last pick of a 25th round points league draft last week. If he hits these numbers, I'll be quite happy with the production out of one of two UT spots.
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Re: 2009 Positional Rankings are now Available

Postby Matthias » Tue Mar 17, 2009 10:31 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
activechamp2006 wrote:
Matthias wrote:I hate the options at SS. Reyes and Hanley are great but after them? Ugh. I hate them all.

OF and SP seem deep relative to years past and 2B isn't actually bad.

Carlos Gomez at 49, though? Ugh. You couldn't pay me to take him. I would even rather have Kubel.

really? I actually see him as a pretty good value pick

So do I. If you can stomach a .265 AVG, the guy is capable of giving you 40 SB, 10 HR, 100R, and 65 RBI. I'll happily take that, or a little bit less, in the 17th or so round.

He doesn't get on base enough to score 100 times. And you can only have a lead-off hitter with an OBP under .300 for so long.

I bet by the end of the year, he's batting 8th and everything is down except his owner's misery.
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Re: 2009 Positional Rankings are now Available

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Mar 17, 2009 10:40 pm

Matthias wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:
activechamp2006 wrote:really? I actually see him as a pretty good value pick

So do I. If you can stomach a .265 AVG, the guy is capable of giving you 40 SB, 10 HR, 100R, and 65 RBI. I'll happily take that, or a little bit less, in the 17th or so round.

He doesn't get on base enough to score 100 times. And you can only have a lead-off hitter with an OBP under .300 for so long.

I bet by the end of the year, he's batting 8th and everything is down except his owner's misery.

He scored 80 times a year ago with a .258 AVG and .296 OBP. He's only 23, but we should expect at least some improvement this year, call it .264 and .310. Leading off the entire season (this is presuming he doesn't get dropped to 8th, of course), he may not reach 100 but he could certainly challenge it. Of course he runs you the risk of completely falling on his face, but again, in the 17th round, the speed and other upsides make him a reasonable risk, imo.
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Re: 2009 Positional Rankings are now Available

Postby ironman » Fri Mar 20, 2009 3:59 pm

With a lot of folks likely having drafts this weekend I just wanted to give this a little bump.
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Re: 2009 Positional Rankings are now Available

Postby Matthias » Fri Mar 20, 2009 5:41 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
Matthias wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:So do I. If you can stomach a .265 AVG, the guy is capable of giving you 40 SB, 10 HR, 100R, and 65 RBI. I'll happily take that, or a little bit less, in the 17th or so round.

He doesn't get on base enough to score 100 times. And you can only have a lead-off hitter with an OBP under .300 for so long.

I bet by the end of the year, he's batting 8th and everything is down except his owner's misery.

He scored 80 times a year ago with a .258 AVG and .296 OBP. He's only 23, but we should expect at least some improvement this year, call it .264 and .310. Leading off the entire season (this is presuming he doesn't get dropped to 8th, of course), he may not reach 100 but he could certainly challenge it. Of course he runs you the risk of completely falling on his face, but again, in the 17th round, the speed and other upsides make him a reasonable risk, imo.

Well, in my league, we count AVG, OBP, and TB, and I think his calculated value was -$5. But he probably fares better in a std 5x5. Even then, though, I hate having these kinds of players on my team. They're so excruciating to follow. They'll thrill you with grabbing 7 bags over 3 days and then do 0-fer, 0-fer, 0-fer, and you keep hear grumblings of benching or getting dropped in the order. Just a headache I'd rather not deal with.
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Re: 2009 Positional Rankings are now Available

Postby Matthias » Sat Mar 21, 2009 8:45 am

Matthias wrote:Well, in my league, we count AVG, OBP, and TB, and I think his calculated value was -$5. But he probably fares better in a std 5x5. Even then, though, I hate having these kinds of players on my team. They're so excruciating to follow. They'll thrill you with grabbing 7 bags over 3 days and then do 0-fer, 0-fer, 0-fer, and you keep hear grumblings of benching or getting dropped in the order. Just a headache I'd rather not deal with.

I just took a look. Using J35J's projections, he comes to -$3; using CBS' projections (we have some custom cats and so it's easiest to get projections from them) he's worth -$10.80. And using the calculator on lastplayerpicked and approximately our settings he's worth $0.

Although I just checked; in a 12-team league with 5 OF'ers and 1 Util and 5x5 settings, lastplayerpicked says his value is -$4. So apparently our settings weren't completely responsible; he just kinda sucks.

But I just put in h0rt's (hopeful) projection of .265 / 10 HRs / 100 Rs / 65 RBI / 40 SB's; then he comes out as an $18 player in 5x5, just under Rios and just over Crawford, Dunn, B.J. Upton, Michael Young, Jay Bruce, Hunter Pence, and Joey Votto.

Somehow, though, I'm sticking with everyone else's projections. I don't see him getting that many runs; I don't see him getting that many RBI's; and I don't even know if he can hit .265. And even for steals, as the saying goes, you can't steal first.

And to give you an idea of the sensitivity, if you put in "a little less" for his counting stats and give him 83 Runs (still too many IMO), 50 RBIs (also probably too many), 7 HRs, 33 steals, and leave him batting .265, his value drops to $6 and he's in the likes of Jeff Francouer, Paul Konerko, Nick Swisher, Randy Winn, and Mark DeRosa.
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Re: 2009 Positional Rankings are now Available

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Sat Mar 21, 2009 9:43 am

But at the end of your draft, if he's available, why not stash him on your bench? If he hits Hort's numbers then its a great pick in the 20th+ rounds...
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Re: 2009 Positional Rankings are now Available

Postby Matthias » Sat Mar 21, 2009 9:58 am

RedSoxNation04 wrote:But at the end of your draft, if he's available, why not stash him on your bench? If he hits Hort's numbers then its a great pick in the 20th+ rounds...

Sure, but you can make that argument about almost anybody available in the 20th round. "If they do a whole lot better than people expect them to, they're a steal." Well, yah, sure. But that doesn't mean that anyone has a good reason to really expect them to.
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Re: 2009 Positional Rankings are now Available

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Sat Mar 21, 2009 12:48 pm

Matthias wrote:
RedSoxNation04 wrote:But at the end of your draft, if he's available, why not stash him on your bench? If he hits Hort's numbers then its a great pick in the 20th+ rounds...

Sure, but you can make that argument about almost anybody available in the 20th round. "If they do a whole lot better than people expect them to, they're a steal." Well, yah, sure. But that doesn't mean that anyone has a good reason to really expect them to.

All I'm saying is that we are talking about a guy who is going to get drafted in the 20th round or later. If he fulfills these expectations, its a great pick. If he doesn't oh well, its not like he's going in the early teens. I just don't see the point in agonizing over a guy like Gomez. If you don't like him, don't draft him.
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