when to draft Arod?

[footballisbetter.com]

He went for $38 in an auction I was in last night. Way too high in my opinion.

[Geek]

I stand corrected. However, it remains the case that on April 20th, he'll be physically cleared to begin spring training, essentially. He then will need time to adjust to what will still be a healing injury, conscious about aggravating that injury, and getting the timing back on his swing. He's too talented to not get it right eventually, but it would not be surprising to see him struggle upon his return, especially with regard to power numbers (at which point he would make a great buy-low candidate).

I can certainly understand the case for drafting him early 3rd round, but my take has always been to avoid injured players in the first five rounds. I'll gamble with my 11th round pick, not my 2nd.

In Yahoo! leagues, usually someone who forgot to prerank their players gets stuck with him in the last part of the first round.

I personally would avoid him like the plague--someone else is bound to overpay for him. His maximum value is mid-4th, early 5th round.

The earliest he'll be back is mid-May, and then he'll be cold, not having seen live pitching for months. Not to mention that he will be conscious of the injury and will probably not steal many bases.

Essentially you'll get at best four productive months from him. Probably 25-30 HR max.

The earliest he is back is late April actually. The timeline was 6-9 weeks from the day of the surgery (last Monday). That puts him at April 20th at the earliest which means best case starts playing a week or 2 later. Don't cloud the facts with your opinions.

[metsfan12]

I stand corrected. However, it remains the case that on April 20th, he'll be physically cleared to begin spring training, essentially. He then will need time to adjust to what will still be a healing injury, conscious about aggravating that injury, and getting the timing back on his swing. He's too talented to not get it right eventually, but it would not be surprising to see him struggle upon his return, especially with regard to power numbers (at which point he would make a great buy-low candidate).

I can certainly understand the case for drafting him early 3rd round, but my take has always been to avoid injured players in the first five rounds. I'll gamble with my 11th round pick, not my 2nd.

In Yahoo! leagues, usually someone who forgot to prerank their players gets stuck with him in the last part of the first round.

I personally would avoid him like the plague--someone else is bound to overpay for him. His maximum value is mid-4th, early 5th round.

The earliest he'll be back is mid-May, and then he'll be cold, not having seen live pitching for months. Not to mention that he will be conscious of the injury and will probably not steal many bases.

Essentially you'll get at best four productive months from him. Probably 25-30 HR max.

The earliest he is back is late April actually. The timeline was 6-9 weeks from the day of the surgery (last Monday). That puts him at April 20th at the earliest which means best case starts playing a week or 2 later. Don't cloud the facts with your opinions.

I am not trying to bicker with you but you are again wrong. His surgery will no longer be healing at that point. That is the timetable on him rehabbing from the injury. So he should by that point be completely healed, and have worked/stretched his hip to the point where he is able to play. The point about starting off slow is valid to some degree and maybe after a week of games he will be sore and need a day off but I don't think expecting A-rod to be full strength by mid-May is unreasonable. If he has a setback and it takes 9 weeks instead of 6 then sure it is another 3 weeks but these estimates are usually very conservative. Utley was suppoed to miss a full month of the season and he is going to be ready for Opening Day. You don't think A-rod is motivated to get back with all of the pressure he is under to perform? If he is back early May and in the end puts up 75% of what he could have he could easily end up with .290-100-30-100-10. He missed 24 games last year and was somewhat slowed by his hip (I believe that is what was reported), so for him to miss about the same number of games this year and again be slowed by the hip at first I think means the upside is similar numbers to last year. If you combine that with a fill-in for the first month+ you have a very nice take for a 3rd round pick. I took him mid-3rd not early 3rd. The best other hitters IMO available at that time were Morneau, Crawford, Quentin, Aramis Ramirez and Brian Roberts. So I think A-rod, coupled with a fill-in will out produce those guys. I later grabbed Chipper Jones in the 6th round and if he gets off to a good start would be perfect trade bait when A-rod comes back. The guy I consider my fill-in for A-rod then is whoever I play at Util (currently a platoon of Thome and Spilborghs).

[Geek]

I own A-Rod in a keeper league, so I'm pulling for the guy.

When can he start swinging the bat in a cage? To me that's the real question--because he'll need a decent amount of time (though less than ordinary players) to get his timing back. The Yankees would be smart to DH him for a few games when he comes back.

I'm sure he'll be motivated--but I also hope he doesn't try too hard. He thrives when he can just relax and have fun playing the game--when he presses, he's not the same player.

I stand corrected. However, it remains the case that on April 20th, he'll be physically cleared to begin spring training, essentially. He then will need time to adjust to what will still be a healing injury, conscious about aggravating that injury, and getting the timing back on his swing. He's too talented to not get it right eventually, but it would not be surprising to see him struggle upon his return, especially with regard to power numbers (at which point he would make a great buy-low candidate).

I can certainly understand the case for drafting him early 3rd round, but my take has always been to avoid injured players in the first five rounds. I'll gamble with my 11th round pick, not my 2nd.

The earliest he is back is late April actually. The timeline was 6-9 weeks from the day of the surgery (last Monday). That puts him at April 20th at the earliest which means best case starts playing a week or 2 later. Don't cloud the facts with your opinions.

I am not trying to bicker with you but you are again wrong. His surgery will no longer be healing at that point. That is the timetable on him rehabbing from the injury. So he should by that point be completely healed, and have worked/stretched his hip to the point where he is able to play. The point about starting off slow is valid to some degree and maybe after a week of games he will be sore and need a day off but I don't think expecting A-rod to be full strength by mid-May is unreasonable. If he has a setback and it takes 9 weeks instead of 6 then sure it is another 3 weeks but these estimates are usually very conservative. Utley was suppoed to miss a full month of the season and he is going to be ready for Opening Day. You don't think A-rod is motivated to get back with all of the pressure he is under to perform? If he is back early May and in the end puts up 75% of what he could have he could easily end up with .290-100-30-100-10. He missed 24 games last year and was somewhat slowed by his hip (I believe that is what was reported), so for him to miss about the same number of games this year and again be slowed by the hip at first I think means the upside is similar numbers to last year. If you combine that with a fill-in for the first month+ you have a very nice take for a 3rd round pick. I took him mid-3rd not early 3rd. The best other hitters IMO available at that time were Morneau, Crawford, Quentin, Aramis Ramirez and Brian Roberts. So I think A-rod, coupled with a fill-in will out produce those guys. I later grabbed Chipper Jones in the 6th round and if he gets off to a good start would be perfect trade bait when A-rod comes back. The guy I consider my fill-in for A-rod then is whoever I play at Util (currently a platoon of Thome and Spilborghs).