Jayson Werth vs. Elijah Dukes

[reenum]

In looking at these two players, they have very similar skill sets. I drafted Werth, but Dukes is on the WW.

Their minor league stats are similar. Dukes has the advantage in age, while Werth is in a better lineup and park.

Which one of these guys projects to have better stats this year? Is Werth's steadyness a decent tradeoff for Dukes' potential?

[Neato Torpedo]

Werth has steadiness? Just because he's older doesn't automatically make him more consistent. He was a backup/platoon player every other year, never posting double digit HR and steals in the same season, and accomplishing each only once. Also, his R/H splits are terrible. The Phils have lefties Stairs and Jenkins for a reason, Werth is a career .251 hitter against right-handed pitchers. Anyone who spends a top 200 pick on him will be regretting it fairly soon.

[Kingctb27]

Dukes has the higher upside, but always seems to get hurt.

[San D]

In the middle of the page 2 of Baseball Leftover topics is a thread "Which of these OFs has the Highest Ceiling This Year". It discusses Werth vs Span vs Dukes. If I remember correctly, there was good debate on both sides of Dukes and Werth.

[jake_twothousandfive]

I'm not crazy about either Dukes or Werth, but you certainly own the right player.

1B and OF are absolutely a mess for the Nationals right now. A look at Washington's depth chart, shows that Dukes will have plenty of competition for playing time. Plus, his contact rates don't suggest that he's going to be able to improve his BA much.

Werth certainly has the ability to repeat his numbers from last year. He was only caught once in 21 SB attempts last year for a reason (he knows how to steal a base) and an ISO of .225 is fairly impressive. As a LD hitter, Werth's BABIP should also remain fairly high and, as such, his BA should remain respectable with a slight chance at improving this year.

Both of these guys come with risk since neither is very proven at the major league level. But, at this point, I'd much rather own Werth.

[Yoda]

Dukes has the higher upside, but always seems to get hurt.

So is Werth.

For the cost, I'd much rather have Dukes.

[Neato Torpedo]

For the cost, I'd much rather have Dukes.

Exactly. I've seen Werth go as early as 10th (ECL) and that is way too early for my taste. Werth's MDP is 140 and Dukes' is 251. I'd rank them close to each other, with Dukes having a slight edge, but there's no way I'm taking Werth anywhere near where he's going.

[jake_twothousandfive]

Dukes has the higher upside, but always seems to get hurt.

So is Werth.

For the cost, I'd much rather have Dukes.

Relative cost adds another dimension to this question. The creator of this thread was asking about dropping Werth for Dukes. Since he already has Werth IMO he'd be better off staying put.

But I agree that Dukes is coming at good value in almost all drafts.

[Neato Torpedo]

Dukes has the higher upside, but always seems to get hurt.

So is Werth.

For the cost, I'd much rather have Dukes.

Relative cost adds another dimension to this question. The creator of this thread was asking about dropping Werth for Dukes. Since he already has Werth IMO he'd be better off staying put.

I disagree for the reasons I mentioned earlier. They'll both have likely PT issues but Dukes has a higher ceiling.

[Yoda]

Dukes has the higher upside, but always seems to get hurt.

So is Werth.

For the cost, I'd much rather have Dukes.

Relative cost adds another dimension to this question. The creator of this thread was asking about dropping Werth for Dukes. Since he already has Werth IMO he'd be better off staying put.

But I agree that Dukes is coming at good value in almost all drafts.

I purposely ignored that part since this is the wrong forum to be asking that question.